I'm lowering the membership cap in UFC Live Betting

Towards the end of 2023, things were a real struggle. It was hard to get in on bets, odds were suspended much more often than usual, and Live Betting on the UFC felt much more difficult than it has been in the past.

I don’t know about you guys, but I’ve absolutely loved the last few weeks because it has felt like old times where we were easily able to get in on every live bet and every position we’ve had has felt very strong.

I think it’s important to remember that in life, nothing stays the same forever. Since I set up this website 10 years ago, I’ve had to constantly evolve and change the way I do things in order to continue performing well.

If you’ve been here for a long time, you will have noticed a trend that always plays out…

Every time we have a bad patch, we evolve, improve and come back 10x stronger. Time and time again we’ve seen bad patches on Pre-fight Betting, UFC Live Betting, and Football Betting, and then we follow them up with another winning run.

The reason why we are able to keep grinding out profits on everything that we do over the long term is that every time we have a bad patch, I look at all the reasons why we haven’t performed well and I take the steps necessary to fix them. This process of continual improvement ensures that no matter how bad things get in the short term, we know that we’re always going to perform well over the long term.

With that in mind, from today, I am making some changes to UFC Live Betting that I feel will improve our profitability in the future.

The first thing I am going to do is lower the number of people in our UFC Live Betting Group.

We know that the more people that bet the same thing at the same time, the faster the odds move or become suspended, and around October 2023, there seemed to be a sudden change in the way that the odds moved. Since the number of people in our group has dipped in recent weeks, the odds movement seems to have gone back to normal.

I don’t know if the size of our group, a change in the odds algorithm, or a mole in our group was the reason for the sudden change in the way that the odds moved, but it doesn’t matter. I want to do everything I can to ensure that the way the odds have moved in recent weeks is how they are going to continue to move in the future.

With how good things have felt in the last few weeks, we now know that the current number of people we have in the Live Betting group enables us to get in on live bets easily.

From now on I am permanently lowering the UFC Live Betting Membership cap to just 65 members. This is only slightly more than what we currently have. Over the last few events, we’ve averaged 50 to 60 people in the group, so a Membership cap of 65 feels perfect because not all 65 people are going to be able to make Live Betting each week. This should mean that most weeks we top out at around 60 people tailing my live bets, which is around the same amount as what we’ve had recently.

Based on how we’ve seen odds move over the last year, I think a member cap of 65 is a good amount, but if we see odds movement negatively impact when we get back to that number of people, then I wont hesitate to further reduce the member cap.

Over the years we’ve also had multiple moles infiltrate the Live Betting Group. These are people who take my live bets, share them with massive groups of people on Telegram, and completely destroy the odds for everybody.

I’ve never understood why people do this, because they’d make so much more money if they weren’t crushing the odds for everyone, but we know that some people are unfortunately very greedy, very short-sighted, and very dumb.

I have a feeling that we had a mole join us in the 2nd half of 2023, which is another one of the reasons that made Live Betting on the UFC much more difficult than it has been in the past.

Over the years, we’ve had multiple moles infiltrate and cause us problems, but I’ve been able to identify them relatively quickly and remove them. Identifying a potential mole in late 2023 was much more difficult than it has been in the past. I tried my best to figure out who it could have been, but I couldn’t work it out. It now appears that if we did have a mole, they’ve left us. Perhaps they realized that destroying the Live Betting odds for everyone doesn’t benefit anybody.

A new protective measure I am going to take to prevent moles from causing us problems in the future is to take weekly snapshots of everyone in the Live Betting Group.

This snapshot will mean that as soon as we start to identify that odds are moving differently, we can remove everyone from the group that joined us since the last snapshot when odds moved normally.

You guys know me, I am always trying to keep people happy and do the right thing. For this reason, I was reluctant to remove people from the group in late 2023 because I couldn’t definitively prove the presence of a mole and I felt it would be harsh to boot people out of the group when they hadn’t done anything wrong.

I also couldn’t decide who to boot. What if I booted half the people in the group and it still didn’t get rid of the mole? I found myself in a really difficult position…

As you guys know, I am always looking for ways to improve and do things better, and with so many people leaving our community recently due to our poor run of results in late 2023, this now gives us another opportunity to level up and do things better.

We can now lower the member cap and build a system that will make it hard for moles to infiltrate us and cause us harm in the future.

We know that we are always going to have to deal with people trying to destroy the great thing that we have here. Over the last 8 years, we’ve made a profit Live Betting on the UFC most months, and it’s human nature that some people will want to either take advantage of that or stop us.

I feel we have built such a strong foundation on both UFC and Football Betting and now these steps are just a couple more things we can do to make our foundation even stronger and set us up for an even better 2024.

Thanks a lot for sticking with me through the good times and the bad. The future looks bright!