GLEISON TIBAU vs TONY FERGUSON
Gleison Tibau is frequently involved in close fights because he doesn’t have the output or aggressive style of fighting to break his opponents down or dominate on the judges score cards. Tony Ferguson is the complete opposite, because he fights at a relentless pace and I don’t believe that Tibau will be able to match him. I believe that this is a relatively easy fight for Tony Ferguson and I also believe that there’s a lot of extra value in the odds. I would have made Ferguson around a 1.25 | -400 favourite, so I consider the current odds of 1.50 | -200 to be excellent value. Gleison Tibau is going to struggle if this fight stays standing, because Ferguson throws a much higher volume of strikes and he also has a strong enough chin to take Tibau’s best shots. Ferguson should be able to walk Tibau down, pick him apart and use his 5 inch reach advantage to stay out of Tibau’s striking range. Tibau is a powerful puncher, but he doesn’t set anything up with combo’s or feints and I don’t think he’s going to be able to deal with Ferguson’s high pressure style of fighting. Gleison Tibau has excellent takedowns, but Ferguson has some of the best takedown defence in the UFC’s Lightweight division, having defended 80% of all takedown attempts in his 8 UFC fights. Ferguson also possesses excellent scrambles and he should be able to stuff the majority of Tibau’s takedown attempts or quickly scramble back to his feet if he does end up getting taken down. Gleison Tibau struggled with bad cardio earlier in his career and whilst it appears his gas tank has improved a lot over the last couple of years, I also believe that his improved cardio is a direct result of Tibau’s ability to make his opponents fight at his pace. He won’t be able to control the pace of the fight against Ferguson, because Ferguson keeps pressing forward no matter what you throw at him. In Tibau’s fight against Piotr Hallmann, he really struggled to deal with Hallmann’s constant pressure and Ferguson fights at a much higher pace than Hallmann. Ferguson’s aggression and high pressure style of fighting will be the difference in this fight and I feel that there’s a really good chance that Ferguson will overwhelm Tibau and win this fight inside the distance. [adrotate group=”80″] MY BETTING TIP: 5 Units [5% of your bankroll] on Tony Ferguson to win at odds of 1.50 | -200 | 1/2[divider]
DHIEGO LIMA vs TIM MEANS
Dhiego Lima struggles against aggressive opponents who push the pace of a fight and Tim Means is a high pressure fighter who never gives his opponents a second to breathe. This is a really bad match up for Lima and he’s going to struggle to deal with the relentless pace that Means sets. I love betting on fighters like Tim Means, because they’ll almost always get the nod on the judges score cards if they’re involved in a close fight. Judges just love guys who fight aggressively and control the centre of the Octagon and this is just one of the reasons why I’m finding it hard to see a way in which Dhiego Lima could win. Tim Means has better striking than Dhiego Lima and he should be able to walk Lima down, stand in the pocket and win this fight by landing a higher volume of strikes. Lima tends to go for takedowns if he’s struggling in stand up exchanges, but these takedowns come from the clinch and Means is very strong from the clinch position. Means generally has good takedown defence and he should easily be able to stuff any type of takedown attempt that Lima can throw at him. Lima has looked very poor in his last 4 fights and I don’t believe that he’s on the same level as Tim Means. Means should be able to win this fight by outworking Lima and landing the more significant strikes. [adrotate group=”132″] MY BETTING TIP: 3.5 Units [3.5% of your bankroll] on Tim Means to win at odds of 1.82 | -122 | 41/50[divider]
