CARLA ESPARZA vs JOANNA JEDRZEJCZYK
I’m a huge fan of Joanna Jedrzejczyk, but styles make fights and this is a really bad match up for her. I hope I’m wrong because Europe badly needs a UFC Champion and I’d love to see Joanna win, but I just can’t see it happening. In many ways the Women’s MMA divisions still feel a lot like the early days of the UFC, where grapplers ruled many of the weight classes, because fighters with a striking base hadn’t yet developed the adequate levels of defensive wrestling that they needed to keep a fight standing. Joanna Jedrzejczyk has decent takedown defence, but Carla Esparza has excellent timing and she does a great job of covering distance and shooting for takedowns. This superb timing is perfectly demonstrated in her last couple of fights against Rose Namajunas and Bec Rawlings… Joanna fights very flat footed and she moves backwards when defending takedowns instead of staying light on her feet and circling away from danger. This will make it easy for Carla to complete here takedowns or put Joanna’s back against the cage. Joanna is several levels above Carla when it comes to striking, but I doubt she’s going to have much of an opportunity to demonstrate that advantage, because she’ll most likely be fighting off her back or defending takedowns against the cage for the majority of this fight. Carla Esparza does a great job of staying all the way in or all the way out of her opponent’s striking range. There’s no way you’re going to see her hanging around in Joanna’s striking range for long enough to get hit with something significant. This is going to make it really hard for Joanna to close the distance without getting taken down. I love watching Joanna Jedrzejczyk fight, but I don’t see how she’s going to be able to keep this fight standing. Claudio Gadelha has a Brazilian Jiu Jitsu base and she was able to repeatedly take Joanna down from the clinch in her last fight. Carla Esparza has much better takedowns and top control than Gadelha and I don’t see what adjustments Joanna could have made since that fight took place 4 months ago, which would enable her to keep this fight standing. Carla Esparza has superb top control and she’s very active with ground and pound from top position. Joanna is going to have a very hard time keeping this fight standing and an even harder time getting back to her feet if she does get taken down. This is an oldschool striker vs grappler match up and more often than not the grappler will win in these kinds of fights… [adrotate group=”46″] MY BETTING TIP: 3 Units [3% of your bankroll] on Carla Esparza to win at odds of 1.65 | -154 | 13/20[divider]
ELIAS THEODOROU vs ROGER NARVAEZ
Elias Theodorou is significantly better than Roger Narvaez in every single aspect of Mixed Martial Arts. He should easily be able to win this fight standing and he should also be able to take Narvaez down and control him on the ground. The odds are low on Theodorou to win, but I still recommend that you bet him straight, because this fight is a good opportunity to win some easy money. Normally I would look to put a fighter at these odds in a parlay accumulator with someone else, but I don’t feel confident enough in any of the other heavy favourites competing at UFC 185. The only thing that can stop us from winning this bet is the Texas judges. Roger Narvaez is from Texas, which means he’s got home advantage on his side. The Texas judges are notoriously bad and notoriously biased and I wouldn’t rule out a bogus hometown decision robbery if this fight goes the distance. Elias Theodorou should be able to win this fight inside the distance or at the very least cruise to a unanimous decision victory. Theodorou is simply better than Roger Narvaez everywhere. This fight won’t even be close. [adrotate group=”17″] MY BETTING TIP: 5 Units [5% of your bankroll] on Elias Theodorou to win at odds of 1.33 | -303 | 33/100[divider]
