VIP Betting Tips, Picks & Predictions for UFC 200 – Tate vs Nunes

UFC 200 is the big one and we’ve got several rock solid bets that should bring home the bacon. I’ve put a lot of time and thought into researching this card and I’m confident that we are going to come out of it with a profit.

We will also be offering Live Betting Tips for this event. We’ve done reasonably well in Live Betting over the last couple of nights and we’ve come very close to hitting a couple of big underdog bets. I am hoping that we can go one step further and cash some big Live underdog bets tonight!

Miesha Tate takes on Amanda Nunes in the main event of UFC 200 and we believe that Miesha Tate is a very solid bet.

Miesha Tate has cardio for days and the heart of a Lion whilst Amanda “Lioness” Nunes has the cardio of Bob Sapp and the heart of Sheldon Westcott. There’s a lot of irony in that statement but there’s also a lot of truth…

If Amanda Nunes had the cardio to fight to her full potential for 25 minutes, this would be a very easy fight for her, but we’ve seen her start to gas out after just 5 minutes in all of her UFC fights. Headlining the main event of UFC 200 is enough to cause even the most conditioned athletes to adrenaline dump and gas out, so this is a real bad time to test drive her new set of lungs if she has been working to improve her cardio.

Miesha Tate has experience competing in massive main events in the past against Holly Holm and Ronda Rousey and I believe that this experience will give her a significant advantage over Amanda Nunes. This is Amanda’s first big main event and first 5 round fight, but this is not Miesha’s first rodeo. Miesha will have the experience to control her emotions, pace herself and avoid adrenaline dumping, whilst this situation will be virgin territory for the less experienced Amanda Nunes.

I believe it’s highly unlikely that Amanda Nunes will have improved her cardio enough to stay competitive with Miesha for longer than 10 minutes, so she is going to have to finish Miesha early in order to win this fight. This won’t be easy because Miesha is incredibly tough and incredibly durable. Miesha Tate appeared on the Joe Rogan show earlier this year and said that she had a near death experience as a child and spent months fighting a disease in hospital. It got so bad at one point that the Doctor’s and Miesha’s parents brought in a Priest to give her, her last rights. She described how she experienced horrific pain throughout her time in hospital. She believes that this near death experience is just one of the reasons why she has so much heart, so much toughness and so much determination inside the Octagon.

Now more than ever we are seeing heart, toughness and cardio come out on top in the UFC and Miesha Tate has an abundance of all 3 of those qualities. I expect this to be a war for the 1st couple of rounds and I also expect Miesha to struggle bad early on, but when the dust settles and it’s all said and done, Miesha will be the fighter who gets her hand raised…

This is another one of those bets where you should wait as long as possible before locking in your bet because the odds on Miesha Tate are currently improving. I recommend placing your bet on Tate to win just before the fight starts.

Mark Hunt takes on Brock Lesnar in the co main event of UFC 200 and we believe that Mark Hunt is a good bet at the current odds.

This is a very bad matchup for Brock Lesnar, because he’s 38 years old and hasn’t competed in MMA for over 5 years. Mark Hunt is not the type of guy you want to be facing when you’re trying to shake off 5 years of ring rust, because if you make a mistake he will KO you dead. If you start slow, he will KO you dead. If you don’t enter his range with perfect timing and defence when shooting for a takedown, he will KO you dead.

If you go back and watch any of Brock Lesnar’s fights you’ll notice that his takedown entries are very sloppy. He does not use good technique at all. He relies too much on his power and athleticism to run through his opponents and knock them down like a bowling pins. This is one of the reasons why Alistair Overeem was able to stuff his takedowns so easily. If you watch Brock fight, you’ll notice that he tries to run through his opponents like a bull and his takedown entries always come in above the hips. This means that fighters with a strong base and strong hips can quite easily shrug off his takedown attempts. Good takedown technique would see Brock shooting in deep on his opponent’s hips, staying tight on them and landing in a dominant position on the ground, but Brock doesn’t do this, he just tries to knock people over with his power and strength. You will also notice that when Brock shoots for a takedown, he doesn’t complete it into a dominant position. Instead, he knocks his opponent down and then jumps on them at the second opportunity. This creates a brief window of opportunity for his opponent to scramble back to their feet and Mark Hunt is very good at quickly scrambling back to his feet when he gets taken down.

Mark Hunt spoke openly about his wrestling and ground game in his autobiography. He said that he had no interest in learning wrestling or BJJ, but he knew that this would hold him back in his MMA career if he couldn’t get back to his feet when he got taken down. As a result, Mark drilled takedown defence, submission escapes and scrambles for a solid year and since then he has been very hard to take down and even harder to keep down. His strong base and low centre of gravity make him very hard to hold down.

Nobody knows for sure whether or not Mark Hunt will be able to keep this fight standing. But I do know that he is very good at stuffing the type of takedown that Brock utilizes…

Mark Hunt struggles against fighters with good wrestling technique like Stipe Miocic, who can get in deep under his hips, upset his balance and end the takedown in a dominant position. This is not how Brock Lesnar wrestles… Mark Hunt is VERY good at stuffing the type of takedowns that Brock uses, because Brock comes in chest height, above the hips, Sumo wrestler style. This style of takedown will not be effective against Mark Hunt. Mark Hunt has a very strong upper body and he does a great job of disengaging when people try to tie him up above the waist. I believe it’s going to be very difficult for Brock to secure a takedown unless he has developed skills that will enable him to shoot in deep under Mark Hunt’s hips.

Size is almost always an advantage in MMA, but this fight is one of the unique situations where size is actually a disadvantage for Brock Lesnar. This is because he is 6 ft 4 whilst Mark Hunt is just 5 ft 10. This difference in height will make it difficult for Brock to get down low enough to shoot in for a takedown below Mark Hunt’s hips. It’s also worth noting that Brock will likely have lost some of his athleticism at the age of 38, which will make it even harder for him to get in low on Hunt.

If Mark Hunt can keep this fight standing, he will win easily because Brock Lesnar has very, very, very low level striking. Brock is not comfortable in striking exchanges at all and if you go back and watch his fights you’ll see that he reacts to every feint. Feinting is a big part of Mark Hunt’s game. He uses feints to setup his opponents for big knockout blows. He’ll pretend to throw the left uppercut and see how you react. He’ll fake the right hook and see how you move and after a few feints he’ll calculate where your head is going to be when he feints and where his KO strike needs to come from. Mark Hunt is a master of deception and there aren’t many strikers in the UFC with better timing. Mark Hunt will use feints to smoke Brock out of his Rabbit hole and Brock’s reaction to feints will be so obvious that he may as well send Mark Hunt a text message with directions for where his chin will be when Hunt throws the KO strike.

This is a classic striker vs grappler matchup, but Brock fights in a state of panic when he is engaged in a stand up fight. He doesn’t like to get hit, he reacts to every feint and he panics when he gets hit. Striking is out of his comfort zone and fighting a guy like Mark Hunt isn’t a great way to get comfortable. Mark Hunt is a much more competent grappler than Brock is a striker and I believe that this will be the difference in this fight. Mark Hunt is ready for war, he’s tough as hell and he’s got 15 minutes to land 1 killer blow. Brock has to survive 15 minutes with a sniper armed with a Nuclear Warhead in his rifle. Can he do it? Maybe? But I believe that it’s far more likely that Hunt finds his chin at least once in their 15 minute fight…

This is another one of those bets where you should wait as long as possible before locking in your bet because the odds on Mark Hunt are currently improving. I recommend placing your bet on Hunt to win just before the fight starts.

Frankie Edgar takes on Jose Aldo at UFC 200 and we believe that Frankie Edgar is a very solid bet at the current odds.

The age of the Brazilian superheroes with cardio for days, ungodly power and a chin from hell are gone. There are none of them left. They have all died out like the Dinosaurs. A new age of fighter now dominates the UFC. These fighters are tough, hard working and they have a ton of heart. Frankie Edgar personifies this style of fighter who has had so much success in 2016…

I believe that USADA is the biggest change to the UFC since fighters were forced to wear gloves and whilst we can’t say for sure whether or not Aldo will be effected, we do know that he has clearly aged since the USADA drug testing programme came into effect. Aldo definitely looks older now. His face is weary, his skin doesn’t have the same glow about it and his hair is turning gray.

There’s no way to know for sure whether Aldo will be effected by USADA, but we do know that the top 10 rankings of every division in the UFC used to be dominated by Brazilian fighters and in the last 12 months almost all of the top Brazilians have faded away. This cannot be a coincidence and I believe there’s a good chance that Aldo becomes just another statistic…

The first fight between Frankie Edgar and Jose Aldo back in 2013 was razor close, but it was predominantly close because Frankie started very slow. He gave Aldo alot of respect early in the fight and he let rounds slip away from him. The fight was very competitive when Frankie settled into his rhythm and he definitely started to take over later on in the fight. Frankie’s experience of already going 25 minutes with Aldo will help him hit the ground running and start much faster in this rematch. I believe that this gives him a significant advantage in this fight because their first fight was so close, but I see more opportunities for Frankie to make adjustments than I do for Aldo. If Frankie makes a few basic adjustments, he should be able to win this fight.

If you go back and watch Aldo’s last few fights it doesn’t appear that he has improved that much at all since he last fought Frankie. Frankie on the other hand has improved tremendously. He also looks in the best physical condition of his career. He was glowing at the weigh ins. He looked outstanding. These are two fighters on very different career trajectories at the moment and all the momentum is with Frankie.

I believe that Frankie Edgar will win this fight by doing what he always does. He will take the centre of the Octagon and put it on Aldo for 25 minutes. He will apply constant pressure, stay in his face and make Aldo work hard to defend takedowns. Aldo is more skilled than Frankie Edgar in every area of MMA, but he doesn’t have the cardio to keep up with him for 25 minutes.

If Aldo is uneffected by USADA he will be the exception to the rule, but his current physical appearance suggests that the new drug testing programme has hit him hard. His appearance at the weigh ins yesterday actually reminded me of how Dan Henderson looked when he came off TRT. This is not a good sign for a 29 year old fighter.

I don’t expect this bet to be an easy winner, but I do expect Frankie to outwork Aldo over 5 rounds. USADA has changed the game forever and Frankie Edgar is the exact type of fighter who is the beneficiary of the way in which the UFC has changed. At almost even money, I believe that Frankie Edgar is a great bet.

Cat Zingano takes on Julianna Pena at UFC 200 and we believe that Cat Zingano is a great bet at the current odds.

Cat Zingano and Julianna Pena both have low level striking, but I don’t think it will be a factor because both girls will want to get this fight to the ground ASAP. Julianna Pena has even been known to pull guard in the past in a desperate attempt to get fights to the ground because her stand up skills are so lacking. That is the reason why I recommend betting big on Cat Zingano to win this fight…

Cat Zingano has a MASSIVE advantage on the ground. Joe Rogan said on his podcast last week that he thinks Julianna might have the advantage, but we have to give him a pass because he was clearly forming his opinions from cloudy memories. Joe Rogan has an amazing knowledge of grappling and if he researched this fight properly he would agree with me that Zingano’s skills are in a completely different league. To try and sum up how big of an advantage Cat has… I’ll remind you guys that Julianna Pena struggled to outwrestle Jessica Eye, whilst Zingano was able to get the better of the ground exchanges against monsters like Miesha Tate and Amanda Nunes.

Julianna’s biggest weakness as a fighter is that she is primarily a grappler but she makes basic fundamental mistakes on the ground that will put her in extreme danger against high level grapplers like Cat Zingano. Pena has had a reasonable amount of success with her grappling skills against low level opponents like Milana Dudieva, Jessica Rakoczy and Sarah Moras, but I have a feeling that Zingano is going to put on a grappling clinic at UFC 200. Pena gives up position far too easily and she’s far too accepting of bottom position. I believe she is going to really struggle in this fight. Trust me when I tell you that Julianna has nothing for Zingano on the ground.

I believe Cat Zingano will win this fight because she has cardio for days, an incredible amount of heart, unrivalled toughness and the skills to dominate Julianna Pena on the ground. This bet should be an easy winner. I do not believe that Pena is ready for what Zingano is bringing to the table…

All of these Prop Bets were placed at either Paddy Power, Unibet or 5 Dimes.

[box type=”error” align=”alignright” ]Some of my VIP members follow my betting tips to invest their money and make big profits. Other members follow my betting tips to make watching MMA more exciting. My Prop Bets are for my VIP Members who want to place bets on every fight, to make watching UFC events more fun. The variance on Prop Bets is very high and you should not bet on them if you are serious about making money. I can’t guarantee that you will make money from placing bets on all of my Prop Bets. Please only bet on these Prop Bets for fun and make sure you keep your bets small.[/box]

Amanda Nunes vs Miesha Tate

Miesha Tate to win inside the distance at odds of 2.00 | +100
Miesha Tate to win in round 2 at odds of 6.50 | +550
Miesha Tate to win in round 3 at odds of 9.50 | +850

Brock Lesnar vs Mark Hunt

Mark Hunt to win by KO at odds of 2.29 | +129
Brock Lesnar to win by decision at odds of 8.50 | +750

Anderson Silva vs Daniel Cormier

Anderson Silva to win by KO at odds of 7.50 | +650

Frankie Edgar vs Jose Aldo

Frankie Edgar to win by KO at odds of 4.50 | +350
Frankie Edgar to win by decision at odds of 3.40 | +240
Frankie Edgar to win in round 4 by KO at odds of 21.00 | +2000
Frankie Edgar to win in round 5 by KO at odds of 23.00 | +2200
Jose Aldo to win by KO at odds of 5.00 | +400

Cain Velasquez vs Travis Browne

Travis Browne to win by KO at odds of 4.50 | +350
Cain Velasquez to win by decision at odds of 4.50 | +350

Cat Zingano vs Julianna Pena

Cat Zingano to win inside the distance at odds of 3.00 | +200
Cat Zingano to win in round 3 at odds of 13.00 | +1200

Johny Hendricks vs Kelvin Gastelum

Johny Hendricks to win by decision at odds of 2.70 | +170

Raphael Assuncao vs TJ Dillashaw

TJ Dillashaw to win by KO at odds of 4.00 | +300
TJ Dillashaw to win by KO in round 3 at odds of 14.00 | +1300

Sage Northcutt vs Enrique Marin

Enrique Marin wins inside the distance at odds of 5.50 | +450
Sage Northcutt wins by KO at odds of 2.70 | +170

Diego Sanchez vs Joe Lauzon

Diego Sanchez wins by decision at odds of 2.50 | +150

Gegard Mousasi vs Thiago Santos

Thiago Santos wins by KO at odds of 5.50 | +450
Thiago Santos wins by decision at odds of 6.00 | +500
Gegard Mousasi wins by submission at odds of 6.00 | +500

Takanori Gomi vs Jim Miller

Jim Miller wins by submission at odds of 2.62 | +162

[box type=”error” align=”alignright”]Please do not bet on all of these picks. Please only place bets on our recommended betting tips. We only post these Picks because we fully research every fight and a lot of our VIP Members want to know who we think will win some of the fights that we don’t recommend betting on.[/box]