UFC 201 Betting Tips, Picks & Predictions

We’ve had a disasterous start to 2016, but we’ve now gone 5-1 on our last 6 bets which I hope is a clear sign that we are starting to turn a corner. Since we setup this website back in 2013 we’ve always maintained a high win rate so I am hoping that the Reebok deal and USADA brought about a short term period of variance that we will now overcome. 7 months of bad results is nothing in the big picture and I feel confident that we’re going to bounce back from a poor run of results with a big win in August.

In recent months we’ve seen big pay perviews have a big negative impact on fighter performances, so I’m going to approach UFC 201 with caution and play this event smaller than I normally would. Poor Performances from the likes of Johny Hendricks and Cat Zingano last month were a reminder that these are uncertain times under USADA and we need to bet with a lot more caution until we’re absolutely sure that the sport has stabilized. This means that I only have 2 betting tips for UFC 201, but I do feel very confident that they will both win.

I will also be offering Live Betting Tips for UFC 201. We’ve already made over 15 units of profit this month and we’re up around 83 units since the beginning of the year. UFC 201 looks great for live betting, so don’t miss out on your opportunity to win some big money tonight. You can buy access to my Live Betting Tips by clicking here.

Good luck for tonight. I look forward to seeing you in the Chat Room!

Robbie Lawler takes on Tyron Woodley in the main event of UFC 201 and we believe that Robbie Lawler is a great bet…

If you would have told me at the beginning of the year that Eddie Alvarez, Amanda Nunes and Michael Bisping would be UFC Champions, I would have told you to go and see a Doctor. In fact, if you would have told me that any of those fighters would be UFC Champions I would have told you to go and see a Doctor. It seems implausible that another average fighter like Tyron Woodley could capture the Championship Gold, but after everything we have seen in 2016 nothing would surprise me. Having said that, Robbie Lawler is a very bad matchup for Tyron Woodley and we cannot let a short term period of variance effect our long term judgement. The fact remains that Robbie Lawler is a very good bet here, despite the fact that Tyron Woodley possesses the power to KO him dead.

Nobody is invincible and it’s entirely possible that Woodley could use his knockout power to KO Robbie Lawler dead, but we also cannot ignore the fact that Woodley has only ever knocked out low level strikers. This is backed up by the fact that he only has 3 wins by KO in his last 11 fights and these KO wins came against Josh Koscheck, Jay Hieron and Dong Hyun Kim. Woodley has never KO’d a high level striker like Robbie Lawler and this is probably down to the fact that Woodley spams his power right hand, which makes him very predictable.

On any given day anyone can get caught, but Lawler is an experienced striker who fights out of the Southpaw stance. This makes Woodley’s power right hand a lot less dangerous because Lawler’s lefty stance should see him naturally move away from Woodley’s power right hand.

We also have to take into consideration the fact that big, muscular guys like Tyron Woodley are really suffering under the new USADA drug testing and weight cut rules. Woodley looks like a body builder and he has always struggled to make weight at 170 pounds. This will be the first time he has fought under the new USADA weight cutting rules and not being able to use an IV to rehydrate could have a big impact on his performance. Woodley has also demonstrated poor cardio throughout his career which isn’t going to get any better under this new USADA drug testing era. Tyron Woodley is the exact kind of fighter who will be hit hard by USADA and I predict that we’ll see a very different version of him at UFC 201.

My one concern about betting on Robbie Lawler is that he has taken a ton of damage throughout his career and gets badly hurt in almost all of his fights. Lawler has been riding the wave of luck for a long time now and eventually his luck and his ability to take a punch will run out. I don’t believe that Woodley is the guy to beat him, but we can’t ignore the real possibility that one day Lawler is going to show up and look a shadow of himself. You simply cannot cheat mother nature forever and Lawler has suffered an ungodly amount of damage throughout his career.

When it comes to fights like this it’s important to remember that there is risk associated with every bet. There are no safe bets when two people are trying to fight for their lives in a locked cage. Anything can happen, but if we consistently make the right decisions we will profit long term. This year has been rough for us, but I truly believe that more often than not we have backed the right guy to win, even when we have lost.

Tyron Woodley has struggled against pressure fighters his entire career and now he’s facing one of the biggest, baddest, nastiest, toughest pressure fighters in the UFC. Robbie Lawler is easy to hit and he does take a lot of damage, but he’s also excellent at cranking up the pressure and forcing his opponent’s to fight in a phone booth, which is often out of their comfort zone. Tyron Woodley tends to go into a defensive shell when he is pressured and Lawler should easily be able to take the centre of the Octagon and force him to fight going backwards. Fighting backwards is exhausting and this dynamic will accelerate the speed in which Woodley starts to gas out.

Tyron Woodley is primarily a wrestler, but he doesn’t have the cardio to grind on Robbie Lawler for long enough to win this fight. Lawler has shown in recent years that it is very difficult to hold him down and Woodley is going to gas out fast if he tries to use his wrestling to win this fight.

I only give Woodley a puncher’s chance of winning this fight and whilst that puncher’s chance may be substantial, it’s not a big enough risk factor to scare me away from betting on Robbie Lawler to win. Woodley only has one way to win this fight, which means there’s a decent amount of value in betting on Lawler at the current odds…

Matt Brown takes on Jake Ellenberger at UFC 201 and we believe that Matt Brown is a great bet.

This is a really tough fight for Jake Ellenberger because in recent years he has looked nervous and tentative and now he is fighting Matt Brown who is extremely aggressive. Brown is a tough matchup for anyone in the Welterweight division because he fights at a high pace and he is constantly trying to hurt you. He also has cardio for days, a good chin and he’s extremely tough. Even if you hurt him, it’s still difficult to beat him, because he does a great job of recovering and firing back with vicious intent.

Matt Brown is a good bet because he has the takedown defence to keep this fight standing and good enough scrambling ability to quickly get back to his feet if he does get taken down. He also has the offensive Jiu Jitsu to cause Jake problems if they decide to mix it up on the ground. Jake is a strong wrestler, but he rarely shoots for takedowns and he doesn’t have very strong top control. It is extremely unlikely that he will be able to control Matt Brown on the ground for long enough to have an impact on the outcome of this fight.

I expect the majority of this fight to stay standing where Matt Brown will have a significant advantage. This is largely down to the fact that Brown lands 30% more strikes per minute than Jake Ellenberger. He also throws a wider range of strikes from a much wider range of positions. Brown isn’t particularly good in open striking exchanges, but he is very dangerous in the clinch and he does a great job of dragging people into chaotic brawls in which he thrives. Brown is going to force Ellenberger to engage and Ellenberger hasn’t looked good for a long time in these kinds of situations. If Brown can break a tough, nasty murderer like Tim Means, you can bet your ass he’ll be able to break Jake too.

We also have to take into consideration the fact that Matt Brown will have a big size advantage over Jake Ellenberger. Matt Brown is 6 ft tall, whilst Ellenberger is only 5 ft 9. Matt Brown also has a 4 inch reach advantage. This may not seem like a big size difference, but Brown towers over Jake when they stand close to each other. Brown has a big physical advantage over Jake Ellenberger, which is a big factor to consider because this will give Brown an edge in the clinch, which is one of his strongest positions.

Based on their recent performances, I believe that Matt Brown is a great bet at the current odds.

All of these Prop Bets were placed at either Paddy Power, Unibet or 5 Dimes.

[box type=”error” align=”alignright” ]Some of my VIP members follow my betting tips to invest their money and make big profits. Other members follow my betting tips to make watching MMA more exciting. My Prop Bets are for my VIP Members who want to place bets on every fight, to make watching UFC events more fun. The variance on Prop Bets is very high and you should not bet on them if you are serious about making money. I can’t guarantee that you will make money from placing bets on all of my Prop Bets. Please only bet on these Prop Bets for fun and make sure you keep your bets small.[/box]

Robbie Lawler vs Tyron Woodley

Robbie Lawler to win by KO at odds of 2.50 | +150
Robbie Lawler to win by KO in round 3 at odds of 11.00 | +1000
Robbie Lawler to win by KO in round 4 at odds of 12.00 | +1100
Robbie Lawler to win by KO in round 5 at odds of 14.00 | +1300

Matt Brown vs Jake Ellenberger

Matt Brown to win by KO in round 1 at odds of 3.00 | +200
Matt Brown to win by KO in round 2 at odds of 7.50 | +650

Ed Herman vs Nikita Krylov

Ed Herman to win by KO at odds of 8.00 | +700

[box type=”error” align=”alignright”]Please do not bet on all of these picks. Please only place bets on our recommended betting tips. We only post these Picks because we fully research every fight and a lot of our VIP Members want to know who we think will win some of the fights that we don’t recommend betting on.[/box]