UFC 211 Betting Tips, Picks and Predictions

UFC 211 should be an amazing event for both entertainment and for live betting, but it could prove to be problematic for prefight bets because there are so many matchups that could go either way.

UFC 211 is a master class in solid matchmaking, but as MMA bettors we need to be disciplined and not get carried away betting on too many fighters who only hold marginal advantages over their opponent’s. It’s also important to remember that whilst it may on the surface appear like many fighters have clear paths to victory, their opponent’s possess the skills to exploit their weaknesses. For example:

Stipe Miocic has looked great over the last few years, but after watching all of his recent fights I noticed that he gets hit way too much. Alistair Overeem rocked him twice in the first round of his last fight and many of his recent opponent’s have been able to land big on him. Miocic has several major advantages going into the matchup, but Junior’s excellent Boxing, timing and takedown defence is sure to cause Miocic some problems. At virtually “pick em odds” I recommend passing on this fight.

The same can be said about the fight between Jessica Andrade and Joanna Jędrzejczyk. Andrade has looked terrifying recently, but she has also shown a sloppiness to her striking that could land her in big trouble against an accurate counter striker like Joanna. It’s also worth noting that Joanna’s two most dangerous weapons are her head kicks and using the forward momentum of her opponent to put them in a Muay Thai Plum clinch. Joanna is significantly taller than Andrade, which means landing head kicks and dangerous knees from the Plum clinch position will be much easier than against opponents of a similar height. Despite this, I do believe that Andrade will be Joanna’s toughest opponent in the UFC so far. Andrade has shown that she has the strength to ragdoll opponents and control them on the ground. Joanna could find herself in big trouble early on in this fight. The inability to accurately and decisively predict which way this fight is going to play out is enough of a reason for me to recommend passing on this matchup.

I also want to remind you that I will be offering my Live Betting Tips for free during UFC 211.

Nordicflight was kind enough to go through our Live Betting results over the last year and he calculated that we’ve gone 30-10 on the last 40 events in live betting. This has resulted in a total profit of 187 units and an average profit of almost 5 units per event. This is an extremely impressive win rate and I expect to continue this success long into the future.

I urge you to join us in our Live Betting Tips Chatroom during UFC 211 to take advantage of these FREE betting tips that I have been sharing for over a year. Sometime in the next few weeks I will be reintroducing paid subscriptions on my Live Betting Tips, so please take advantage of them being free whilst you still can!

Don’t forget to keep checking this article regularly for updates because we’ll be adding more betting tips as we get closer to the time of the event.

Over the last 3 years I have bet against Demian Maia in 4 out of his last 7 fights for a total profit of 3.20 units. Everytime I bet against him it is for the same reason…

Demian Maia is masterful on the ground, but despite his ability to take his last 6 opponent’s down with relative ease, if you watch his offensive wrestling and takedowns you’ll see that he manages to complete takedowns moreso because his opponent’s become frozen with fear as opposed to good technique. In all my breakdowns over the last few years I have said that Demian Maia has poor offensive wrestling and I do stand by that. This is backed up by the fact that he has only successfully completed 31% of all takedowns across 24 fights in the UFC. At the age of 39, his offensive wrestling isn’t going to be getting any better. Maia’s recent success has quite literally come from his opponent’s freezing and tensing up when he clinches with them. This is probably a direct result of them being terrified of being taken down. This has enabled him to execute lazy trips and takedowns that anyone with half decent takedown defence should be able to stop.

Jorge Masvidal’s takedown defence hasn’t been tested that much in recent years, but he has shown flashes of strong wrestling and he trains at American Top Team with some of the best fighters in the world. ATT fighters are well known for having excellent takedown defence and Maia’s style of offensive wrestling isn’t difficult to shut down or gameplan for. Masvidal’s relaxed, fluid and loose style of fighting suggests that he won’t react to Maia’s takedowns like a Rabbit caught in the headlights. Instead I expect him to stay calm, loose and shut down Maia’s relatively ineffective strategies of getting a fight to the ground.

I’m not saying this bet is totally risk free, because Masvidal is in big, big, big trouble if Maia gets him to the ground, but at almost pick em odds I believe there’s a good amount of value in betting on Masvidal to win based on the fact that Masvidal is very likely to be calm and composed enough to implement smart, strong and consistently technical takedown defence.

Dustin Poirier has been a total money train for us over the last 3 years by helping us to bank a total profit of over 23 units on his fights. For the most part we’ve been able to bet on Poirier when he has won and we’ve been able to avoid betting on him in the fights that he has lost. Take a look at our bets on Poirier and see for yourself:

Dustin Poirier is never a safe bet because of his willingness to get dragged into wreckless exchanges, but at almost even money I believe he’s a good bet in the fight because he’s better than Eddie Alvarez in almost every single aspect of MMA.

Jason Knight is one of those rare fighters who looked terrible before signing for the UFC, but has since looked great since entering the promotion. It’s rare that this kind of rapid development occurs, but we do occasionally see it in guys like Jason Knight and Mike Perry who looked bad on the regional circuit and then made huge improvements almost overnight.

This is one of those fights where I believe the bookies have made a huge error with the betting odds. I personally cap Jason Knight as a decent sized favourite. He’s better than Chas Skelly almost everywhere…