800-888

UFC 211 Betting Tips, Picks and Predictions

UFC 211 should be an amazing event for both entertainment and for live betting, but it could prove to be problematic for prefight bets because there are so many matchups that could go either way.

UFC 211 is a master class in solid matchmaking, but as MMA bettors we need to be disciplined and not get carried away betting on too many fighters who only hold marginal advantages over their opponent’s. It’s also important to remember that whilst it may on the surface appear like many fighters have clear paths to victory, their opponent’s possess the skills to exploit their weaknesses. For example:

Stipe Miocic has looked great over the last few years, but after watching all of his recent fights I noticed that he gets hit way too much. Alistair Overeem rocked him twice in the first round of his last fight and many of his recent opponent’s have been able to land big on him. Miocic has several major advantages going into the matchup, but Junior’s excellent Boxing, timing and takedown defence is sure to cause Miocic some problems. At virtually “pick em odds” I recommend passing on this fight.

The same can be said about the fight between Jessica Andrade and Joanna Jędrzejczyk. Andrade has looked terrifying recently, but she has also shown a sloppiness to her striking that could land her in big trouble against an accurate counter striker like Joanna. It’s also worth noting that Joanna’s two most dangerous weapons are her head kicks and using the forward momentum of her opponent to put them in a Muay Thai Plum clinch. Joanna is significantly taller than Andrade, which means landing head kicks and dangerous knees from the Plum clinch position will be much easier than against opponents of a similar height. Despite this, I do believe that Andrade will be Joanna’s toughest opponent in the UFC so far. Andrade has shown that she has the strength to ragdoll opponents and control them on the ground. Joanna could find herself in big trouble early on in this fight. The inability to accurately and decisively predict which way this fight is going to play out is enough of a reason for me to recommend passing on this matchup.

I also want to remind you that I will be offering my Live Betting Tips for free during UFC 211.

Nordicflight was kind enough to go through our Live Betting results over the last year and he calculated that we’ve gone 30-10 on the last 40 events in live betting. This has resulted in a total profit of 187 units and an average profit of almost 5 units per event. This is an extremely impressive win rate and I expect to continue this success long into the future.

I urge you to join us in our Live Betting Tips Chatroom during UFC 211 to take advantage of these FREE betting tips that I have been sharing for over a year. Sometime in the next few weeks I will be reintroducing paid subscriptions on my Live Betting Tips, so please take advantage of them being free whilst you still can!

Don’t forget to keep checking this article regularly for updates because we’ll be adding more betting tips as we get closer to the time of the event.

FightsBetting Tips
Junior Dos Santos vs Stipe MiocicNo bet
Jessica Andrade vs Joanna JędrzejczykNo bet
Demian Maia vs Jorge MasvidalBetting Tip Available
Frankie Edgar vs Yair RodriguezNo bet
David Branch vs Krzystof JotkoNo bet
Eddie Alvarez vs Dustin PoirierBetting Tip Available
Chas Skelly vs Jason KnightBetting Tip Available
James Vick vs Polo ReyesStill researching
Cortney Casey vs Jessica AguilarNo bet
Chase Sherman vs Rashad CoulterNo bet
Enrique Barzola vs Gabriel BenitezStill researching
Gadzhimurad Antigulov vs Joachim ChristensenNo bet

Betting Tip 1: Jorge Masvidal to beat Demian Maia

Over the last 3 years I have bet against Demian Maia in 4 out of his last 7 fights for a total profit of 3.20 units. Everytime I bet against him it is for the same reason…

Demian Maia is masterful on the ground, but despite his ability to take his last 6 opponent’s down with relative ease, if you watch his offensive wrestling and takedowns you’ll see that he manages to complete takedowns moreso because his opponent’s become frozen with fear as opposed to good technique. In all my breakdowns over the last few years I have said that Demian Maia has poor offensive wrestling and I do stand by that. This is backed up by the fact that he has only successfully completed 31% of all takedowns across 24 fights in the UFC. At the age of 39, his offensive wrestling isn’t going to be getting any better. Maia’s recent success has quite literally come from his opponent’s freezing and tensing up when he clinches with them. This is probably a direct result of them being terrified of being taken down. This has enabled him to execute lazy trips and takedowns that anyone with half decent takedown defence should be able to stop.

Jorge Masvidal’s takedown defence hasn’t been tested that much in recent years, but he has shown flashes of strong wrestling and he trains at American Top Team with some of the best fighters in the world. ATT fighters are well known for having excellent takedown defence and Maia’s style of offensive wrestling isn’t difficult to shut down or gameplan for. Masvidal’s relaxed, fluid and loose style of fighting suggests that he won’t react to Maia’s takedowns like a Rabbit caught in the headlights. Instead I expect him to stay calm, loose and shut down Maia’s relatively ineffective strategies of getting a fight to the ground.

I’m not saying this bet is totally risk free, because Masvidal is in big, big, big trouble if Maia gets him to the ground, but at almost pick em odds I believe there’s a good amount of value in betting on Masvidal to win based on the fact that Masvidal is very likely to be calm and composed enough to implement smart, strong and consistently technical takedown defence.

Reasons for placing this bet...

  • Jorge Masvidal is 8 years younger than Demian Maia. Maia is now 39 years old which means that he is well past his prime. The younger fighter wins around 65% of the time when there is an 8 year age gap in a fight. The advantage is even more significant when the older fighter is over the age of 33.
  • Demian Maia is an impossible challenge to overcome when he gets his opponent’s to the ground, but his takedowns and offensive wrestling is very poor. This is backed up by the fact that he has only successfully completed 31% of all takedown attempts across 24 fights in the UFC. Over the last few years his opponent’s have been paralyzed by the fear of being taken down, which has caused them to make very basic errors which have opened up the takedowns for Maia. Masvidal is a calm and calculated fighter. I do not believe he’ll panic and make these same mistakes.
  • Demian Maia has very poor cardio… Especially if you make him work hard for takedowns early on in a fight.
  • Jorge Masvidal has significantly better striking than Demian Maia.
  • Jorge Masvidal has a very relaxed, fluid and calm style of fighting. He is very comfortable in the Octagon. This looseness should make it for difficult for Maia to take him down.
  • Jorge Masvidal trains at American Top Team, which is one of the best MMA gyms in the world. His training partners are world class fighters such as Dustin Poirier, Krzystof Jotko, Will Brooks, Colby Covington, Santiago Ponzinibbio and many, many more.
  • Jorge Masvidal is extremely tough and well rounded. It’s unlikely that he will be phased if he gets put into difficult positions early on.
  • Jorge Masvidal’s primary training partner at ATT is Colby Covington. Covington has a high level NCAA Div 1 level wrestling pedigree. He is also a much stronger wrestler than Maia. Having a training partner like Covington will help Masvidal prepare for this fight.
  • Demian Maia is very predictable and easy to gameplan for when the fight is standing up. He doesn’t have the striking skills to setup his takedowns which means that Masvidal should see his takedown entries coming from a mile away. This should enable him to secure underhooks and put himself in strong positions to shut down the threat of being taken down.

Risk Factors...

  • Demian Maia will dominate this fight if he can consistently take Jorge Masvidal down.
  • Demian Maia is an unstoppable force on the ground.
  • Demian Maia has a size advantage over Jorge Masvidal.

Our Betting Tip

Jorge Masvidal to win

Stake

3 Units

[3% of your bankroll]

Odds

Decimal = 1.91
Moneyline = -110
Fractional = 91/100

52%

Implied Probability

The bookies believe that Jorge Masvidal has a 52% chance of beating Demian Maia based on their current odds.

65%

Our Probability

We believe that Jorge Masvidal has a 65% chance of beating Demian Maia based on our extensive research and analysis.

Betting Tip 2: Dustin Poirier to beat Eddie Alvarez

Dustin Poirier has been a total money train for us over the last 3 years by helping us to bank a total profit of over 23 units on his fights. For the most part we’ve been able to bet on Poirier when he has won and we’ve been able to avoid betting on him in the fights that he has lost. Take a look at our bets on Poirier and see for yourself:

Dustin Poirier is never a safe bet because of his willingness to get dragged into wreckless exchanges, but at almost even money I believe he’s a good bet in the fight because he’s better than Eddie Alvarez in almost every single aspect of MMA.

Reasons for placing this bet...

  • Dustin Poirier is better than Eddie Alvarez in every single aspect of MMA.
  • Dustin Poirier has significantly better wrestling and BJJ.
  • Dustin Poirier is an experienced Southpaw with legit 1 punch KO power.
  • Eddie Alvarez lacks the wrestling to take Dustin Poirier down.
  • Eddie Alvarez doesn’t have finishing power in his strikes.
  • Eddie Alvarez is slow and has poor striking defence.
  • Dustin Poirier deals significantly more damage with the strikes that he lands.
  • Dustin Poirier can win this fight standing up or on the ground.
  • Dustin Poirier is 5 years younger than Eddie Alvarez. The younger fighter wins around 60% of the time when there is a 5 year age gap in a fight.
  • Dustin Poirier will only lose this fight if he gets wreckless and does something stupid. Skill for skill he is capable of dominating Eddie Alvarez.
  • Dustin Poirier has a 4 inch reach advantage over Eddie Alvarez.

Risk Factors...

  • Eddie Alvarez is very tough. He has cardio for days.
  • Eddie Alvarez is a smart fighter. He has great fight IQ. He understands the importance of winning rounds and finishing rounds strong.
  • Eddie Alvarez has the skills to hurt Dustin Poirier in wild exchanges.

Our Betting Tip

Dustin Poirier to win

Stake

3 Units

[3% of your bankroll]

Odds

Decimal = 1.91
Moneyline = -110
Fractional = 91/100

52%

Implied Probability

The bookies believe that Dustin Poirier has a 52% chance of beating Eddie Alvarez based on their current odds.

65%

Our Probability

We believe that Dustin Poirier has a 65% chance of beating Eddie Alvarez based on our extensive research and analysis.

Betting Tip 3: Jason Knight to beat Chas Skelly

Jason Knight is one of those rare fighters who looked terrible before signing for the UFC, but has since looked great since entering the promotion. It’s rare that this kind of rapid development occurs, but we do occasionally see it in guys like Jason Knight and Mike Perry who looked bad on the regional circuit and then made huge improvements almost overnight.

This is one of those fights where I believe the bookies have made a huge error with the betting odds. I personally cap Jason Knight as a decent sized favourite. He’s better than Chas Skelly almost everywhere…

Reasons for placing this bet...

  • Jason Knight has significantly improved his wrestling and takedown defence since his UFC debut against Tatsuya Kawajiri.
  • Jason Knight is a very skilled grappler. He takes the back of his opponent’s and locks in a body triangle faster and more fluidly than anyone else I’ve ever seen.
  • Jason Knight has significantly better striking than Chas Skelly.
  • Chas Skelly has low level striking. He’s predictable and sloppy.
  • Chas Skelly has very bad cardio.
  • Jason Knight is super aggressive. He does a great job of taking the centre of the Octagon and holding it.
  • Chas Skelly stands heavy and flat footed on his lead leg. This opens him up to Jason Knight’s powerful leg kicks.
  • Jason Knight is 8 years younger than Chas Skelly. The younger fighter wins around 65% of the time when there is an 8 year age gap in a fight.
  • Jason Knight fights at a very high pace. Chas Skelly doesn’t have the cardio to keep up with him for 3 rounds.
  • Jason Knight is extremely tough.
  • Jason Knight appears to make big improvements from fight to fight.

Risk Factors...

  • Chas Skelly has home advantage. Texan judges are notoriously biased towards hometown fighters.
  • Jason Knight has poor striking defence.
  • Jason Knight had very bad takedown defence before coming to the UFC.

Our Betting Tip

Jason Knight to win

Stake

3 Units

[3% of your bankroll]

Odds

Decimal = 2.00
Moneyline = +100
Fractional = 1/1

50%

Implied Probability

The bookies believe that Jason Knight has a 50% chance of beating Chas Skelly based on their current odds.

65%

Our Probability

We believe that Jason Knight has a 65% chance of beating Chas Skelly based on our extensive research and analysis.

Allsopp
I am the owner of this website and my goal is to build a strong community that is focused on helping each other make money betting on MMA.

Leave a Reply