UFC 217 Betting Tips, Picks and Predictions

UFC 217 is one of the biggest events of the year, and it presents us with some excellent opportunities to make money. Once again I feel like the bookies are giving us a good amount of additional value on some of the odds on this card.

UFC Fight Night 119 turned out to be a frustrating night because we only made a small profit in Live Betting and we made a small loss in prefight bets, but I still feel like we had our money in some very strong positions. Our calculated gambles did not pay off, but we will keep grinding, and I am sure we’ll have a strong finish to 2017.

Like all forms of investing, making the right decisions doesn’t always mean you’ll get paid, but I will continue to work very hard to ensure that we get back on track by making a decent profit at UFC 217.

James Vick vs Joe Duffy Betting Tip and Prediction

From a betting perspective, the fight between James Vick and Joe Duffy was the first fight that caught my eye when I scanned through the matchups at UFC 217.

James Vick is a lanky striker with poor head movement, while Joe Duffy, in my opinion, is the best Boxer in the UFC’s Lightweight division.

Before researching this fight I’d capped Duffy at somewhere around 1.20 | -500 | 1/5, so I was blown away when I woke up this morning and saw his odds set at 1.61 | -164 | 61/100. Unfortunately, after conducting my research I don’t feel as confident as I did in Duffy, but I still think he’s worth a bet at the current odds. After completing my research on this fight, I would now cap Duffy at odds of 1.40 | -250 | 2/5, which still gives us a good amount of value.

If you go back and watch Vick’s fights from before 2016 you’ll see that he fought like a slightly more technical version of Stefan Struve. His long frame meant that he was slow for the division and his lack of head movement would often result in him getting caught by big shots.

Vick has made considerable improvements in the last 18 months to tighten up this weakness. He now uses his length much better than he used to, but he still tends to get caught cold and eat big shots when facing skilled strikers. Duffy will be by far the best Boxer he has ever faced, so I still think he’ll struggle despite the improvements he has made.

If you go back and watch Duffy’s past fights, you’ll see that he is extremely fast and extremely technical. His Boxing is very high level. You rarely see Boxers as good as Duffy compete in the UFC and I believe Vick will find it difficult to avoid eating Duffy’s shots that come from angles and positions that we don’t often get to see in MMA.

Vick is tough, well rounded and he is making vast improvements from fight to fight, but in exchanges, he still tends to get caught cold and tagged hard. Even if he doesn’t get hurt that badly, his long frame often sees his head get snapped back in dramatic fashion when he eats a shot. This does not look good in the eyes of the judge’s and it paints the picture that he may be more hurt or maybe taking more damage than he actually is.

Right now at the current odds, I think Duffy is a steal. Vick is dangerous, and his newfound ability to use his length to his advantage could pose Duffy some problems, but over 3 rounds I think he lands the more significant shots and potentially gets a win via knockout.

Reasons for betting on Joe Duffy

Cody Garbrandt vs TJ Dillashaw Betting Tip and Prediction

If you watch TJ Dillashaw’s fights against Dominick Cruz, Raphael Assuncao and John Lineker you’ll see that he is very easy to hit inside the pocket and gets regularly caught by bombs. His striking defense from this position is not good, and he often gets caught cold. His looseness and his ability to roll with the punches enable him to absorb the impact, but Garbrandt is not the kind of guy that you want to play this game against.

In the media, we often hear about how TJ Dillashaw is hyper-competitive, and this worked against him in his matchup against Dominick Cruz. If you go back and watch that fight, you’ll see that TJ got very frustrated as soon as Cruz got a slight edge and his competitiveness drove him to start chasing Cruz around the Octagon to try and gain the upper hand. This obviously played right into Cruz’s gameplan and ultimately cost TJ the fight.

This is a significant factor to take into consideration because it is not easy to turn off this competitive instinct. If you go and watch the Cruz vs Garbrandt fight, you’ll see that despite all the bad feeling and trash talk, Garbrandt was very calm from the first second of the matchup. He was having fun and showboating against Cruz within 1 minute of the fight starting. This frustrated Cruz and took him off his game. Based on what we’ve seen from TJ in the past, this tactic will be very effective against him.

Can you train to not fall into Cody’s traps and gamesmanship?

Absolutely…

Is it easy to drown out your competitive instincts in a fight at Madison Square Garden, while millions of people are watching you fight in your underwear?

That part isn’t so easy…

In a high-pressure situation, where there’s a lot at stake and a lot of trash talk and bad blood, we know that Garbrandt can perform to his full potential. The same cannot be said about TJ Dillashaw.

I believe Garbrandt is a good bet in this fight because he not only has the skills to beat TJ everywhere, but we’ve also seen him perform to his full potential on the big stage. This is a skill that cannot be overlooked. Conor McGregor isn’t the best Lightweight in the UFC. But he’s the best Lightweight under the bright lights of a high-pressure situation, and this Championship level quality is something that separates fighters from the Outliers.

If we drill down deep into how this fight could play out, it becomes clear that Garbrandt is a good bet.

Think about it for a second…

TJ Dillashaw failed to hurt Dominick Cruz, John Lineker, Raphael Assuncao and Joe Soto standing up and Garbrandt is almost impossible to hold down.

So how does TJ win?

Could he outstrike Garbrandt over 5 rounds? It’s certainly possible…

But 1 Cody Garbrandt power punch will cancel out 10 of TJ’s pitter-patter technical strikes. This is a sad reality, but it’s something we see happen every week in MMA.

The New York State Athletic Commission has proven over the last 12 months that they do not have an educated judging panel. When Cody lands his huge bombs, the crowd will go crazy, and this will have an impact on how the judges score the fight.

For TJ to win this fight, he’s going to have to get inside and land on Cody, and this position is where he takes the most damage, and it is also the position where Cody thrives.

I believe that Cody is a good bet in this fight because I do not see any area where Dillashaw has a significant advantage. Cody is too hard to hold down, and he hits too hard and accurately in the pocket to not get the better of the striking exchanges.

By default, I can’t see how TJ wins this fight. Cody would have to have an off night, or TJ would have to have made significant improvements to win this matchup. Both scenarios are possible but based on past performances Cody should win.

Reasons for betting on Cody Garbrandt

Joanna Jedrzejczyk vs Rose Namajunas Betting Tip and Prediction

Joanna Jedrzejczyk should dominate this fight, but there’s no question that Rose Namajunas is the most dangerous opponent that she has ever faced. Namajunas is the only opponent Joanna has ever fought with the ability to end a fight from any position in a split second.

When I first saw the odds on this fight “NOT TO GO THE DISTANCE” I felt that they were way off and yet they’ve been improving all week.

In Rose, we have someone who can end a fight in a split second from any position, but also someone who folds in high-pressure situations and tends to fade around the second to third round of each fight.

In Joanna we have a ruthless technical striker who frequently lands more than 100 strikes in a 5 round fight.

Can Rose absorb the kind of damage that Joanna will dish out for 25 minutes? Based on past performances the answer is no.

This is the biggest fight of Namajunas’ life. She’s fighting in front of millions of people at UFC 217, which is a super card. She has buckled under this pressure before, and Joanna will give her plenty of opportunities if she’s looking for a way out.

I believe that the current odds on “Fight DOES NOT go the distance” are madness. I just cannot see Rose hanging in there for 25 minutes. She doesn’t have the cardio or mental strength to get into a war with Joanna for 5 rounds.

I believe that this bet is excellent value.

Reasons for betting on this fight to NOT GO the distance

Corey Anderson vs Ovince St-Preux Betting Tip and Prediction

After watching all of Ovince St-Preux’s recent fights, I was surprised by how much his fight IQ and cardio have improved in the last 18 months. In the past St-Preux used to fight very inefficiently and gas out, but now he uses his power and wrestling in reverse to pace himself.

Corey Anderson is one of those guys that seems to have declined significantly since USADA came into effect. His nipples show signs of previous Steroid use, and he’s not the same guy that he used to be.

Corey Anderson is the definition of a panic wrestler. His striking is low level, and if he cannot take his opponent’s down, he ends up looking very awkward on the feet. Ovince St-Preux is a strong wrestler, with solid takedown defense and a good ground game, so it is unlikely that Anderson will be able to take him down or hold him down.

For this reason, I believe we’ll end up seeing an awkward stand-up fight, which favors St-Preux significantly because he hits way harder and Anderson tends to go into a defensive shell when he gets hurt.

If you go back and watch Corey Anderson’s recent fights, you’ll also notice that he has been rocked or dropped in almost all of them. Anderson’s chin is very questionable, and Ovince St-Preux hits harder than any of his recent opponents.

I believe there’s a very good chance that St-Preux will win this fight by knockout and if he doesn’t, he’ll probably end up winning an awkward decision because his power strikes will put Anderson into a defensive shell in the 1st round.

At the current odds, I firmly believe that St-Preux is a good bet.

Reasons for betting on Ovince St-Preux