Several fights look great for betting at UFC 237, so I am starting my research earlier than usual to try and lock in some bets before the odds potentially decline on fighters where I currently see value.
This is a big PPV event, and I’ve noticed that a lot of casual bettors have very strong opinions on how they feel some of these fights will play out. This should hopefully gift us solid betting opportunities in positions where the casual bettors have not corrected the inaccurate odds laid out by the betting websites. We saw great additional value in the odds on the last PPV, particularly on Belal Muhammad to beat Curtis Millender. Hopefully, the casual betting public and betting sites can gift us some more fantastic opportunities on this card. I believe I’ve already identified a couple of fights where the odds appear to be extremely inaccurate.
It is also worth noting that because so much casual money will be bet on UFC 237, it will be difficult to predict the way that the odds will move. When the UFC and media hype machines are in full effect, they can influence people in unpredictable ways. UFC 237 promotional material, the MMA media, countdown videos, and podcasts with popular personalities can also mislead people into making irrational betting decisions that are not backed up by facts. For this reason, we may have to lock in bets for this event where we see value and if the odds improve then so be it. All we can do is put our money in strong positions and hope for the best.
|Jessica Andrade vs Rose Namajunas||I would bet Andrade if her odds improved to 1.91 | -110 | 91/100||Andrade to win|
|Anderson Silva vs Jared Canonnier||No bet||Silva to win|
|Alexander Volkanovski vs Jose Aldo||2 units on Jose Aldo to win at odds of 1.78 | -128 | 39/50||Aldo to win|
|Laureano Staropoli vs Thiago Alves||No bet||Alves to win|
|Antonio Rogerio Nogueira vs Ryan Spann||No bet||Nogueira to win|
|Kurt Holobaugh vs Thiago Moises||No bet||Holobaugh to win|
|Bethe Correia vs Irene Aldana||3 units on Irene Aldana to win at odds of 1.42 | -238 | 21/50||Aldana to win|
|BJ Penn vs Clay Guida||No bet||Guida to win|
|Luana Carolina vs Priscila Cachoeira||No bet||Cachoeira to win|
|Sergio Moraes vs Warlley Alves||No bet||Alves to win|
|Carlos Huachin Quiroz vs Roani Barcelos||No bet||Barcelos to win|
|Viviane Araujo vs Talita Bernardo||1 unit on Viviane Araujo to win at odds of 3.70 | +270 | 27/10||Araujo to win|
Bethe Correia vs Irene Aldana Betting Tip and Prediction
I recommend that you lock in a bet on Irene Aldana as soon as possible because I expect her odds to decline significantly over the next few days. Bethe Correia has become a bit of a Meme amongst MMA fans, and I think big money will come in on Aldana when people see her at reasonably good odds. Throughout the week I think we’ll also see people throwing Aldana into their parlays/accumulators which will further accelerate the rate at which her odds will decline.
Irene Aldana has pretty much every advantage you could hope for when betting on a fighter. Let’s go through them one by one…
Firstly Bethe Correia is returning to action after being out for almost 2 years. Ring rust is a very real thing, and it won’t be easy for Correia to come back into the UFC and hit the ground running against a tough, well-rounded opponent like Irene Aldana.
Correia is also returning to action on the back of a brutal KO loss at the hands of Holly Holm. It’s good that she took 2 years off to let her brain heal, but these kinds of knockouts can change a fighter forever. It can affect their confidence, aggression and their overall mental state. Aldana is one of the best strikers in the UFC’s Bantamweight division. She’s a better Boxer than Holly Holm, and she’s also the kind of fighter who can be very aggressive. She won’t give Correia any time to settle. If Correia is still feeling nervous and insecure over the knock out she sustained against Holly Holm, things could get even worse for her against a heavy-handed, aggressive, technical Boxer like Aldana.
It’s also possible that Father time could play a role in this matchup. Correia is now 35 years old and should be declining from fight to fight, while Aldana is still just 31 years old and in her prime. Aldana is still making big improvements from fight to fight. Over the last 2 years, it’s possible that Correia’s body has changed and she may not feel as sharp returning to the bright lights of the UFC after such a long layoff.
Size also matters in MMA, and Irene Aldana will have a big size and reach advantage over Correia. Aldana stands at 5 ft 9 compared to Bethe Correia who is just 5 ft 5. Aldana will also have a significant 4-inch reach advantage. This is a huge advantage for Aldana because she does a great job of using her length to fight long. Correia is slow and has poor striking defense so Aldana should be able to use her reach advantage to pick Correia off from positions and angles where she cannot be countered.
Aldana also has huge advantages when it comes to technique. If this fight stays standing, I expect Aldana to dominate. Aldana is fast, powerful and technical with excellent footwork and head movement. Aside from Germaine De Randamie, I feel like Aldana is the best all-around striker in the UFC’s Bantamweight division. Aldana also throws a wide range of punches and does a great job of reading distance and range.
On the ground, this fight is a little more even. Both girls are weak off their backs, but they’re both strong from top position. The good news is that Bethe Correia doesn’t have the offensive wrestling to take Aldana down. Aldana is a big, strong Bantamweight at 5 ft 9 and she’s powerful and explosive at defending takedowns. She doesn’t always use the correct technique to keep fights standing, but her athleticism makes it difficult for her opponents to take her down and hold her down. Correia’s offensive wrestling is very poor, so Aldana should be able to keep this fight standing where she will have a huge advantage.
At the current odds of around 1.40 | -250 | 2/5, I believe that Aldana is a great bet because she has just about every advantage you could possibly want in an MMA fight. Her sometimes questionable fight IQ can get her into trouble, but all things considered, it would be an absolute travesty if she were to lose to someone as bad as Bethe Correia. This is definitely Aldana’s fight to lose.
Reasons for betting on Irene Aldana
Risk Factors with betting on Irene Aldana
My Betting Tip
Irene Aldana to win
[3% of your bankroll]
Decimal = 1.42
Moneyline = -238
Fractional = 21/50
The bookies believe that Irene Aldana has a 70% chance of beating Bethe Correia based on their current odds.
Alexander Volkanovski vs Jose Aldo Betting Tip and Prediction
I wanted to bet on Jose Aldo to beat Alexander Volkanovski ever since this fight was first announced a few months ago. This kind of matchup is what I like to call a “checkmate” matchup.
A checkmate matchup is a matchup in which one guy has no realistic path to victory. Based on past performances, Volkanovski won’t be able to outstrike Aldo, he won’t be able to take him down, and he won’t be able to hold him down. So how does he win? Aside from a flash knockout or Aldo significantly underperforming this is a nightmare stylistic matchup for Volkanovski.
Unfortunately, back in March, news broke that Jose Aldo had been hospitalized due to a small cut that got infected on his knee. This cast doubt on whether the bet would be viable because this infection and subsequent hospitalization could effect Aldo coming into this fight. It later emerged that Aldo allegedly made a full recovery after completing two rounds of antibiotics, but the circumstances are not exactly ideal for a potential bet on Aldo. This infection, hospitalization and then antibiotic treatment does induce extra risk into this bet.
In circumstances like this, it’s important to be as neutral as possible. We have to evaluate all information available to us and then try to make the best decision possible based on all the information we have. I don’t like to bet on fighters who have clearly had issues during their training camp, but it’s better to know about them, rather than to not know about them. A massive percentage of fighters compete with injuries, after bad weight cuts or after suffering illnesses, so it’s important not to completely dismiss the possibility of betting someone because these are some of the toughest athletes in the world. With the correct training and nutrition, it would be possible to recover quickly from a Bacterial infection.
If Aldo were to show up and perform to his full potential against Alexander Volkanovski at UFC 237, I’d personally cap him at having around 70% to 75% chance of winning this fight. His current average odds of around 1.78 | -128 | 39/50 give him a current implied probability of 56%. This means that we have roughly a 15% to 20% margin over the betting sites at the current odds. I also believe this gives us a good enough margin to take a gamble on Aldo at the current odds, despite the issues that he has faced during his training camp.
This bet on Jose Aldo to beat Alexander Volkanovski is very similar to our bet on Donald Cerrone to beat Al Iaquinta last week. We knew that Cerrone would have a brutal weigh cut to 155 pounds and we knew he’d look terrible at the weigh-ins. But Cerrone has looked like this weighing in many times in the past, and he has still been able to perform to a decent level. There was a good enough margin in the odds, so we took a gamble on him and it paid off. I see this bet on Aldo as being very similar.
If Jose Aldo shows up and performs to his full potential on Saturday night, I think he beats Volkanovski quite easily because there is no area that Volkanovski can take this fight where he’ll have an advantage.
When we look at the bigger picture, I also feel that there’s a very good chance that Aldo will perform to his best and that the Bacterial Infection won’t affect him that much…
I say this because throughout Jose Aldo’s career we have seen him pull out of fights many, many times. He has pulled out of much bigger fights and much bigger opportunities than a 3 round main event fight against a guy like Alexander Volkanovski. He famously pulled out of a fight with Conor McGregor, which would have been a huge payday for him.
Aldo has shown throughout his career that he is not afraid to pull out of fights if he doesn’t feel he can compete at his best. He’s not afraid to tell the UFC he’s pulling out. Many fighters will still fight through injuries because they either need the money or they don’t want to let the UFC down, but Aldo doesn’t fit into either of those categories. He has butted heads with the UFC many times in the past over pulling out of fights. UFC President, Dana White has even publicly criticized Aldo in the past for pulling out of fights. Aldo also doesn’t need to fight on Saturday night for the money. He has picked up several big paydays for huge fights throughout his career, and he’s a wealthy man in Brazil. He has several big sponsorship deals, a lot of business interests outside of MMA and he also owns a popular fast food chain. If Aldo was really badly affected by the Bacterial Infection, I think he would have just pulled out of this fight.
So now that we’ve discussed the X-Factors, let’s talk about how both these guys matchup from a technical perspective…
If Jose Aldo shows up and performs anywhere close to what we know he is capable of, I believe that he dominates Alexander Volkanovski…
If the fight stays standing, Aldo should be able to use his rock-solid defensive guard to avoid Volkanovski’s power strikes and punish Volkanovski every time he comes forward. Volkanovski doesn’t have the footwork, head movement or technique to fight with a high-pressure style and this is one of the reasons why he got rocked by Mendes in his last fight. If you go back and watch that fight you’ll see that the majority of the fight was contested in Kickboxing range because every time Volkanovski tried to get aggressive, he ate a bomb, and this deterred him from coming forward. Aldo has built an entire career off using people’s aggression against them by keeping a tight guard, landing bombs and then forcing them to fight in a defensive shell.
When it comes to striking there are different levels to the game and Aldo is lightyears ahead of Volkanovski. Aldo also still has a granite chin, good cardio for 3 rounds [more on that later] and the ability to KO you dead in a fraction of a second. Aldo also has some of the most vicious leg kicks in the game, and Volkanovski stands very heavy on his lead leg. If the fight stays standing, Aldo should cruise to a win.
Alexander Volkanovski is primarily a grappler, but most of his grappling is executed with strength, power, and athleticism as opposed to the correct technique. This is a big issue when you’re fighting a guy like Jose Aldo who is a high-level Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu Black Belt and a guy who has some of the best takedown defense we’ve ever seen in the history of MMA. Aldo has successfully defended 92% of all takedowns across a staggering 21 fights under the Zuffa banner. This is exceptionally impressive when you take into consideration the fact that Aldo has consistently competed against the best Featherweights in the world for his entire career. He has also fought against some of the best grapplers in the history of the division including Chad Mendes, Frankie Edgar, Urijah Faber, Mark Hominick, and Mike Brown. I’m not saying with absolute certainty that Volkanovski CAN’T take Aldo down. I’m saying it’s very, very, very unlikely.
Aldo is one of those guys that even if you do manage to take him down, he can pop right back up to his feet like a spring. If Volkanovski is to win this fight, he is more than likely going to have to do it with striking, which isn’t going to be easy considering Aldo’s striking is at a much higher level.
The MMA media have also branded Jose Aldo as being a fighter on the decline who now slows down as the fight progresses, but we can dig deeper into these detail because sweeping statements such as this only highlight how clueless the MMA media really are.
Yes, it’s true that Aldo isn’t the same guy he was before USADA came into effect, but who is? USADA took a toll on everyone, and despite a decline in Aldo’s athletic ability, he has proven over the last few years that he is still one of the best fighters in the world at 145 pounds. At just 32 years old we have to remember that Aldo is still a young man, in his prime. Sure he has probably had a lot more wars in the gym than most. But his chin is, and he hasn’t really taken that much damage throughout his career. Remember that back in his WEC days he was running through everyone and when he came into the UFC, he was only fighting on average of 1 time per year. He’s not like these aging veterans with 40 pro fights who have been in tons of wars and who have been knocked out multiple times. In his 32 fight pro MMA career, Aldo has only been knocked out 3 times. Once by Conor McGregor and twice by current Champion, Max Holloway. That’s not a bad record for a guy who has consistently competed against the best fighters in the world for his entire career.
I also strongly feel like Aldo’s alleged questionable cardio is a big fallacy that is perpetuated by a narrative sold by the MMA media. If you go back and watch Aldo’s past fights, you’d see that he doesn’t have bad cardio at all. Back at UFC 200 in July of 2016, in a post-USADA era, we saw Aldo fight at a very high pace against Frankie Edgar for 25 minutes. Since then he’s picked up 2 KO wins against Jeremy Stephens and Renato Moicano and lost twice to Max Holloway. People point to the Holloway fights as a sign that Aldo is on a decline, but that’s not giving enough respect to how good Max Holloway is. Aldo was actually winning those fights, but when Holloway finds his range, he’s devastating. It’s also worth noting that this matchup against Volkanovski is a 3 round fight. Aldo’s fights against Holloway were 5 round fights. Holloway only managed to finish Aldo in the 3rd round of both those matchups and Aldo gave him a lot of trouble early on. Volkanovski does not have the technical ability to get inside, fight in Boxing range and make Aldo work in the way that Holloway could. Do not listen to MMA media because they don’t understand fighting.
As you can see from all the information I’ve shared with you, this is a checkmate matchup. Volkanovski has no realistic path to victory. It’s very unlikely that Volkanovski KOs Aldo, very unlikely that he outstrikes him and virtually impossible that he’ll be able to take him down and control him on the ground. Volkanovski’s paths to victory are very narrow, which means Aldo is a great bet at the current odds. Even if he is affected by the Bacterial infection, his skills are so superior that he may still pull off a win.
We also can’t ignore the fact that this fight is in Brazil. Aldo is one of the most popular Brazilian fighters ever. Every time he lands a strike the crowd will go crazy. If this fight ends up being anywhere near close, it’s very likely that the judges will award Aldo the win.
There are always going to be risk factors with every bet. You can always find reasons not to place a bet. But ultimately you have to have conviction in your decisions and based on all the information we have available to us, I think there’s a good amount of value in betting Aldo at the current odds. Let me know if you agree by giving me your opinions in the VIP Chatroom.
Reasons for betting on Jose Aldo
Risk Factors with betting on Jose Aldo
My Betting Tip
Jose Aldo to win
[2% of your bankroll]
Decimal = 1.78
Moneyline = -128
Fractional = 39/50
The bookies believe that Jose Aldo has a 56% chance of beating Alexander Volkanovski based on their current odds.
Talita Bernardo vs Viviane Araujo Betting Tip and Prediction
You will often hear me preach that fighters making their debut lose a very large percentage of the time and fighters who make their debut on short notice lose an even bigger percentage of the time. For this reason, I have a general rule not to bet on debutants and especially not to bet debutants making their debut on short notice, but every once in a while a potential Unicorn comes along and forces me to break these rules.
Talita Bernardo was initially scheduled to face Jessica Rose-Clark this weekend at UFC 237. Then about a month ago Rose-Clark had to pull out with a knee injury, and Melissa Gatto stepped up to take her place. Then a few days ago Gatto got pulled from the fight, and now we have Viviane Araujo stepping up to take this fight on just 3 or 4 days notice.
Before researching this fight, I didn’t know anything about Araujo. I just expected her to be an average fighter who would step up on short notice only to get a contract in the UFC. But after watching some of her past fights and doing a little research, I was very pleasantly surprised.
It turns out that Araujo is really, really good. She’s the current Women’s Strawweight Champion in Pancrase, Ali Abdel-Aziz manages her and she’s one of the few female fighters that appears to be reasonably good everywhere. She’s a strong wrestler, with a high-level ground game, solid technical Muay Thai, a good chin and she also has cardio for days.
After studying some of Araujo’s past fights, I feel like she could hang with almost everybody in the top 10 of the UFC’s Strawweight division… Problem is… This fight is at BANTAMWEIGHT.
So now the task becomes even more difficult for Araujo… Or does it???
We know that size matters in MMA and the thought of a Strawweight facing a Bantamweight on just 3 or 4 days notice sounds like a recipe for disaster. But Araujo may actually have the size advantage on Saturday night because she stands at 5 ft 6, while Bernardo stands at 5 ft 4. Bernardo’s body type is quite soft, while Araujo is powerful and muscular. Take a look at both girls below to see for yourself:
View this post on Instagram
A gente sonha um dia ter nosso nome escrito nessa placa! Eu consegui, mas não cheguei aqui sozinha!!! Agradeço sempre a Deus por permitir viver essa experiência na minha profissão, ao meu marido por acreditar e insistir pra que eu lutasse e aos meus parceiros de treino que me batem pra eu evoluir!!! Essa placa é nossa!!!! Valeu.. #gratidao #ifteam #ufc #mma #wmma #foco #treinoduro #dream
View this post on Instagram
?? Prepare-se para os momentos difíceis, são eles que diferenciam quem chega e quem fica pelo caminho. Obrigada @lpnutricaoesportiva por me acompanhar e tirar de mim a minha melhor versão em performance esportiva. Tmj meu amigo. • ??Get ready for the tough times, this is who separates the winners from those who stayed by the way. Thank you, my supporter @lpnutricaoesportiva for being part of this walk. • @cerradomma @essencialfarmmanipulacao @tratamentodechoquebrasil @vivaoftalmologia @pumpsuplementos @henquelimajj @lucianacbribeiro @mariojampaulo @babiruska @reficc @masterssportwear #teamessencial #teamtc #teamlp #teammasterssportwear #teampump #teamjampaulo #psicologiaesportiva #vivaoftalmologia #dfimplantes #bjj #lutalivre #boxing #wrestling #mthai #boxe #mma #wmma #fight #grlpwr #fightlikeagirl #mindset #focus #motivation #resilience nce #discipline #lifestyle # blackbelt
What I’m trying to say is… On paper, this looks like a Strawweight vs Bantamweight fight, but actually, it’s more likely that both girls will come into this fight at roughly the same size. So Bernardo probably won’t have that much of a size advantage at all.
One of the reasons why such a high percentage of fighters making their debut on short notice lose is because they have to go through a brutal weight cut at short notice without time to diet probably and taper off their body weight. Araujo won’t have that problem here because she probably walks around at about 135 pounds anyway. All she’ll need to do is concentrate on fighting.
It’s not ideal to bet on a fighter who is making their UFC debut on just a few days notice, but Araujo’s current average odds of around 3.70 | +270 | 27/10 give her an Implied Probability of just 27%. Based on her past performances I believe there’s a good chance she’s better than Bernardo EVERYWHERE which in my opinion makes this a decent value bet.
We also have to remember that Talita Bernardo has bad cardio and tends to slow down as the fight progresses, so it’s not like Araujo is fighting a cardio machine who will push her to her limits for 15 minutes. I’ve checked Araujo’s Instagram profile and she appears to be in decent shape all the time, so I do believe this is a calculated gamble.
If this fight stays standing Araujo should have a relatively big technical advantage. Bernardo is an awkward, clumsy, low-level striker, while Araujo is fast, technical and throws a wide range of strikes.
Talita Bernardo is primarily a wrestler, with a nice double leg takedown who likes to take her opponents down, get into top position and steal rounds, but that won’t be easy against Araujo. Araujo is a high-level Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu Black Belt and from what I’ve seen also appears to be a strong wrestler. She also has a nice double leg takedown entry, good chain wrestling and she’s very active on the ground.
We frequently see Bernardo give up position on the ground, which means there’s a good chance if this fight does hit the mats, Araujo will be able to gain the upper hand in the grappling exchanges.
Betting on a fighter making their UFC debut on just a few days notice is never going to be a safe bet, but Viviane Araujo looks excellent, and Talita Bernardo is a low-level fighter. At the current odds, I feel that Araujo is worth a gamble, but at the same time, I would not recommend that you tail this bet if you don’t like to lose. This is a very risky bet. I personally feel like the risk is worth the reward, but you have to decide for yourself if you want to take that risk. It’s more likely that this bet loses than wins. Over the long term, I strongly believe we will make money on these kinds of bets, but at the same time, we’ll also lose a lot of them.
Reasons for betting on Viviane Araujo
Risk Factors with betting on Viviane Araujo
My Betting Tip
Viviane Araujo to win
[1% of your bankroll]
Decimal = 3.70
Moneyline = +270
Fractional = 27/10
The bookies believe that Viviane Araujo has a 27% chance of beating Talita Bernardo based on their current odds.