UFC 253 – Adesanya vs Costa Betting Tips, Picks and Predictions

We did well last weekend on both prefight and Live betting as we went 2-0 on prefight bets and 1-0 on Live Bets. We now head into Fight Island on the back of an improved run of results on prefight bets and a +10 unit profit from the last 6 weeks in Live Betting.

UFC 253 looks like a great event for betting, so I will prioritize fight research early this week to try and get through as many fights as possible before the odds start to move. I will then record breakdown videos for any bets we find later in the week. In the meantime, you can watch the Livestream videos for a full explanation of the reasons why I recommend each bet.

We’ve been doing well lately, and with a few potential strong positions to put our money this weekend, I am hoping that we can keep it going.

Fight Betting Tip Who I think will win Who I think is the better bet
Israel Adesanya vs Paulo Costa 3 units on Israel Adesanya to win at odds of 1.57 | -175 | 57/100 Adesanya Adesanya
Dominick Reyes vs Jan Blachowicz 3 units on Dominick Reyes to win at odds of 1.36 | -278 | 9/25 Reyes Reyes
Brandon Royval vs Kai Kara-France 3 units on Kai Kara-France to win at odds of 1.44 | -227 | 11/25 Kara-France Kara-France
Ketlen Vieira vs Sijara Eubanks No bet Vieira Vieira
Hakeem Dawodu vs Zubaira Tukhugov No bet Tukhugov Tukhugov
Alex da Silva vs Brad Riddell No bet Riddell Riddell
Diego Sanchez vs Jake Matthews No bet Matthews Sanchez
Ludovit Klein vs Shane Young 2 units on Ludovit Klein to win at odds of 1.91 | -110 | 91/100 Klein Klein
Aleksa Camur vs William Knight No bet Camur Camur
Jeff Hughes vs Juan Espino No bet Espino Hughes
Danilo Marques vs Khadis Ibragimov 1 unit on Danilo Marques to win at odds of 2.40 | +140 | 7/5 Marques Marques
BETTING TIPS

Brandon Royval vs Kai Kara-France Betting Tip

My Betting Tip

Kai Kara-France to win

Recommended Stake

3 Units

[3% of your bankroll]

Odds

Decimal = 1.44
Moneyline = -227
Fractional = 11/25

69%

Implied Probability

The bookies believe that Kai Kara-France has a 69% chance of beating Brandon Royval based on their current odds.

75%

Our Probability

I believe that Kai Kara-France has a 75% chance of beating Brandon Royval based on my extensive research and analysis.

Dominick Reyes vs Jan Blachowicz Betting Tip

My Betting Tip

Dominick Reyes to win

Recommended Stake

3 Units

[3% of your bankroll]

Odds

Decimal = 1.36
Moneyline = -279
Fractional = 9/25

74%

Implied Probability

The bookies believe that Dominick Reyes has a 74% chance of beating Jan Blachowicz based on their current odds.

80%

Our Probability

I believe that Dominick Reyes has an 80% chance of beating Jan Blachowicz based on my extensive research and analysis.

Danilo Marques vs Khadis Ibragimov Betting Tip

My Betting Tip

Danilo Marques to win

Recommended Stake

1 Units

[1% of your bankroll]

Odds

Decimal = 2.40
Moneyline = +140
Fractional =7/5

42%

Implied Probability

The bookies believe that Danilo Marques has a 42% chance of beating Khadis Ibragimov based on their current odds.

50%

Our Probability

I believe that Danilo Marques has a 50% chance of beating Khadis Ibragimov based on my extensive research and analysis.

Israel Adesanya vs Paulo Costa Betting Tip

My Betting Tip

Israel Adesanya to win

Recommended Stake

3 Units

[3% of your bankroll]

Odds

Decimal = 1.57
Moneyline = -175
Fractional =57/100

64%

Implied Probability

The bookies believe that Israel Adesanya has a 64% chance of beating Paulo Costa based on their current odds.

70%

Our Probability

I believe that Israel Adesanya has a 70% chance of beating Paulo Costa based on my extensive research and analysis.

Ludovit Klein vs Shane Young Betting Tip

My Betting Tip

Ludovit Klein to win

Recommended Stake

2 Units

[2% of your bankroll]

Odds

Decimal = 1.91
Moneyline = -110
Fractional = 91/100

52%

Implied Probability

The bookies believe that Ludovit Klein has a 52% chance of beating Shane Young based on their current odds.

60%

Our Probability

I believe that Ludovit Klein has a 60% chance of beating Shane Young based on my extensive research and analysis.

LIVESTREAM ARCHIVE

Brandon Royval vs Kai Kara-France

I recommend betting Kai Kara-France.

Dominick Reyes vs Jan Blachowicz

I recommend betting Dominick Reyes.

Danilo Marques vs Khadis Ibragimov

I recommend betting Danilo Marques.

Israel Adesanya vs Paulo Costa

I recommend betting Israel Adesanya.

I'm a Professional Gambler from the UK. I specialize in betting on MMA. I've got 1 kid, a Shih Tzu and I've been making money from gambling for around 8 years now.