[adrotate group=”25″]Gegard Mousasi is unbeaten in his last 7 fights and has only lost 3 times in his 39 fight career. He also holds notable wins over several world class fighters such as Hector Lombard, Mark Hunt and Ronaldo “Jacare” Souza.
There’s no doubting that Mousasi is an elite fighter who will hold a place in the UFC’s top 10 rankings in the Middleweight division for some time to come, but I can’t help but feel he is being thrown to the Lions in this fight…
If it wasn’t for some questionable judging decisions and even more questionable performances, we could quite easily be calling Lyoto Machida the best pound for pound fighter in the world. When I first heard about this fight, I fully expected Machida to be a massive favourite, but the odds on a Machida win are actually excellent value at around 1.44 | -250 | 2/5.
The prospect of fighting Lyoto Machida is pretty scary, but it’s even more scary fighting him in his own back yard. Home advantage is a big factor in MMA and the stats tell us that Brazilian fighters win 67% of the time in Brazilian vs Non Brazilian match ups, in UFC events held in Brazil. Lyoto Machida is an extremely popular fighter in his homeland and the Brazilian crowd will be doing everything they can to support Machida and make the arena an intimidating place for his opponent.
Both these guys are stand up fighters, but Machida has such a big advantage in the striking department, that it’s tough to see any way that Mousasi will be able to win. Mousasi does have a 2 inch reach advantage, but that’s virtually useless against a guy like Machida, who is so good at creating space and closing the distance.
Machida is also a tough puzzle to solve for any fighter, as he is constantly switching stances from Orthodox to Southpaw. It’s extremely hard for a fighter to adjust to an opponent who is constantly switching their style and who can fight just as effectively as a Southpaw, as they can in the Orthodox stance. Machida’s ability to constantly switch stances is what causes him to be so elusive and unpredictable and it’s also one of the main reasons why Machida is able to catch his opponents with such devastating knockouts from all kinds of different positions.
It’s impossible to train for an opponent like Machida, because there are no other fighters like him. If Mousasi had any type of ground game, then I might feel slightly nervous about this pick, but since neither fighter will want to take this to the ground, there is only going to be one winner.
We’re going to bet big on Machida to win, because it’s important to cash in on the excellent value odds that are available at [adrotate group=”16″]. $20,000 is the most our bankroll will allow us to bet on a fight, but we honestly wish we could bet more. Gegard Mousasi will need a miracle to beat Lyoto Machida in front of a passionate Brazilian crowd and miracles don’t happen that often in MMA.
OUR BET: 20.00 UNITS ON LYOTO MACHIDA TO WIN AT 1.44 | -250 | 2/5
SIDEBET: 5.00 UNITS ON LYOTO MACHIDA TO WIN BY KNOCKOUT OR TKO 3.00 | +200 | 1/1
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BEST ODDS AVAILABLE FOR THIS UFC FIGHT…
The best odds for this fight can be found at [adrotate group=”16″].
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MORE UFC BETTING TIPS FOR FIGHT NIGHT 36…
Lyoto Machida v Gegard Mousasi
Francis Carmont v Ronaldo “Jacare” Souza
