UFC on ESPN 5 Betting Tips, Picks and Predictions

July turned out to be a decent month for prefight betting after we banked an overall profit of just under 5 units.

Unfortunately, we suffered our first losing month in Live Betting since December last year after suffering an official loss of -0.38 units. This is especially disappointing because we lost 3 split decision live bets on Wellington Turman, Thiago Santos, and Francisco Trinaldo. Those 3 losses were a 16.5 unit swing, and I personally felt like they all won. If just one of those bets had won, it would have been a 7th consecutive profitable month for us.

We now turn our attention to UFC on ESPN 5 which kicks off a brand new month of betting on MMA. Please also remember that this event is scheduled to start much earlier than most UFC events that take place in the United States.

Fight Betting Tip Pick
Colby Covington vs Robbie Lawler No bet Covington to win
Clay Guida vs Jim Miller No bet Miller to win
Joaquim Silva vs Nasrat Haqparast 4 units on Nasrat Haqparast to win at odds of 1.41 | -244 | 41/100 Haqparast to win
Hannah Goldy vs Miranda Granger No bet Granger to win
Darko Stosic vs Kennedy Nzechukwu 3 units on the over 1.5 rounds at odds of 1.63 | -159 | 63/100 Stosic to win
Mickey Gall vs Salim Touahri No bet Touahri to win
Antonina Shevchenko vs Lucie Pudilova No bet Pudilova to win
Gerald Meerschaert vs Trevin Giles No bet Giles to win
Dong Hyun Ma vs Scott Holtzman No bet Holtzman to win
Claudio Silva vs Cole Williams No bet Silva to win
Jordan Espinosa vs Matt Schnell No bet Schnell to win
Lauren Murphy vs Mara Romero Borella No bet Borella to win

Joaquim Silva vs Nasrat Haqparast Betting Tip and Prediction

The odds have been slowly improving on Nasrat Haqparast all week, but in the last 12 hours, there have been signs that they’re starting to slow down and even decline, so it’s now time to lock in our bets.

At just 23 years old Nasrat Haqparast has everything he needs to be a future Champion. He trains at two of the best MMA gyms in the world under Firas Zahabi at Tristar and Rafael Cordeiro at Kings MMA. He also has the base in skills to be competitive with most of the best fighters in the Lightweight division, with the cardio, chin, and toughness to back it up.

If you spend a short amount of time studying Haqparast and Silva’s past fights, you’ll quickly see that Haqparast has an advantage everywhere.

If the fight stays standing, I expect Haqparast to use his superior speed and technique to pick Silva apart. Silva loads up a lot on his power strikes, and this kind of striking shouldn’t cause Haqparast too much of a problem because he always keeps a tight, high Boxing guard and has excellent striking defense. When Silva over commits to his huge power shots, he also has a tendency to leave himself wide open to big counters and Haqparast’s fast hands should be able to punish him for his recklessness. Haqparast also throws a much wider range of strikes, and I really feel like his footwork, and fast hands will cause Silva a big problem.

Both Haqparast and Silva are primarily strikers, so I expect this fight to stay standing, but if it does go to the ground, Haqparast should also have an advantage there. Silva has poor takedown defense, and he’s weak off his back. His BJJ is decent, but there’s no doubt that Haqparast is the stronger and more skilled MMA grappler.

Joaquim Silva tries to bait his opponents into brawls, but Haqparast doesn’t play that game. He uses his excellent footwork and striking defense to avoid eating big shots. He also does a great job of using his crisp striking to pick opponents apart.

This is one of those fights where Haqparast has an advantage everywhere. If both guys show up and perform to their full potential, he should be able to cruise to a win.

Reasons for betting on Nasrat Haqparast

  • Nasrat Haqparast has an advantage over Joaquim Silva everywhere.
  • Nasrat Haqparast has excellent striking defense. He utilizes a high Boxing guard to make it difficult for his opponents to land their power strikes.
  • Nasrat Haqparast uses excellent footwork to neutralize the forward pressure of his opponents and make it difficult for them to land power strikes.
  • Nasrat Haqparast has a big speed advantage over Joaquim Silva.
  • Joaquim Silva loads up on his strikes. Haqparast does a good job of using footwork and a high Boxing guard to block or slip his opponents power punches.
  • Both Haqparast and Silva are strikers, but Haqparast is the much more technical striker.
  • Haqparast has excellent cardio. He can fight at a high pace for 3 rounds.
  • Haqparast is very tough and he has an excellent chin.
  • Joaquim Silva has poor takedown defense and he’s weak off his back.
  • Nasrat Haqparast is still only 23 years old and making big improvements from fight to fight.
  • Nasrat Haqparast is training at two of the best MMA gyms in the world. He trains under Firas Zahabi at Tristar MMA and Rafael Cordeiro at Kings MMA.
  • Joaquim Silva tends to over commit to strikes and eat big counters.

Risk Factors with betting on Nasrat Haqparast

  • Anything can happen in MMA.
  • Haqparast is still young and inexperienced.
  • Joaquim Silva hits hard.

My Betting Tip

Nasrat Haqparast to win

Recommended Stake

4 Units

[4% of your bankroll]

Odds

Decimal = 1.41
Moneyline = -244
Fractional = 41/100

71%

Implied Probability

The bookies believe that Nasrat Haqparast has a 71% chance of beating Joaquim Silva based on their current odds.

80%

Our Probability

I believe that Nasrat Haqparast has an 80% chance of beating Joaquim Silva based on my extensive research and analysis.

Darko Stosic vs Kennedy Nzechukwu Betting Tip and Prediction

We are 21-8 [Wins-Losses] on Over 1.5 rounds bets over the last 5 years. This gives us an excellent win rate of 72%. These kinds of bets have been an absolute Money Train for us, and I am hoping to kick August off with a profit by banking another winner on Saturday night.

If you were Wikicapping the fight between Darko Stosic and Kennedy Nzechukwu I could see how you’d think it was more likely that this fight would end in round 1 because both guys have plenty of early finishes on their record. It’s not until you dig a little deeper into the fighting styles of both guys that you realize there’s a really good chance that this fight lasts longer than 1.5 rounds.

If you take a look at the MMA records of both Stosic and Nzechukwu, you’ll see that the majority of their fights have ended in round 1, but the majority of their first-round finishes have come against a low level of opponent. When they have both faced a step up in competition, the fights have gone the distance.

You often see this kind of situation where guys coming into the UFC have a lot of first-round finishes on their record before they get to the UFC because they have only fought low-level opponents. As soon as they get to the UFC, you see them going the distance far more frequently.

To win this bet, we need the fight to last longer than 7.5 minutes, and with the way both these guys matchup I do believe there’s a good chance it will.

Darko Stosic doesn’t have the cardio to fight at a high pace for 3 rounds, so he fights in bursts to conserve energy. This means that he only throws a low volume of strikes. This helps run the clock down because his fights are often filled with long periods of inactivity while he is taking breaks and not pulling the trigger. Meanwhile, his opponents aren’t pushing the pace because they respect his power too much.

Stosic does hit very hard and carries legit 1 shot KO power in every strike, but the size difference in this matchup will make it more difficult for him to land his big shots on Nzechukwu:

Nzechukwu doesn’t carry that much power in his strikes; he’s more of a volume guy which makes it more unlikely that he would be able to win this fight by knockout or TKO. We also have to take into account the fact that Stosic has an excellent chin and he’s very tough. It won’t be easy for Nzechukwu to get him out of there.

Darko Stosic will have a big advantage over Nzechukwu on the ground, but Nzechukwu’s long limbs should help him defend himself on the ground and make it more difficult for Stosic to posture up and do big damage.

We only need this fight to last 7.5 minutes to win this bet and based on how both guys matchup I think that’s very likely. Our win rate on these kinds of bets is excellent. Let’s hope we can win another one Saturday night.

Reasons for betting on this fight to last longer than 1.5 rounds

  • Both guys tend to fight to decisions and go deeper in fights when they face a higher level of opponent.
  • Darko Stosic is a low volume striker that fights in bursts so that he can conserve his energy and pace himself.
  • The size difference between Stosic and Nzechukwu will make it more difficult for Stosic to land his power strikes.
  • Stosic is extremely tough and he has an amazing chin.
  • Nzechukwu is not really a power striker. He’s more of a volume guy.
  • Stosic’s fights are filled with long periods of inactivity while he tries to pace himself. This should help the clock tick towards the 7.5 minute mark when we would win our bet.
  • Darko Stosic is likely to start slower and look to pace himself better after gassing out in his last fight after 1 round.
  • Stosic has a big advantage on the ground, but Nzechukwu should be able to use his long limbs to defend himself in guard.

Risk Factors with betting on this fight to last longer than 1.5 rounds

  • Anything can happen in MMA.
  • Darko Stosic carries legit KO power in every strike.
  • Darko Stosic has a huge advantage on the ground.
  • Kennedy Nzechukwu throws vicious elbows when defending takedowns.

My Betting Tip

Over 1.5 rounds

Recommended Stake

3 Units

[3% of your bankroll]

Odds

Decimal = 1.63
Moneyline = -159
Fractional = 63/100

61%

Implied Probability

The bookies believe that this fight has a 61% chance of lasting longer than 1.5 rounds based on their current odds.

70%

Our Probability

I believe that this fight has a 70% chance of lasting longer than 1.5 rounds based on my extensive research and analysis.

Allsopp
I'm a Professional Gambler from the UK. I specialize in betting on MMA. I've got 1 kid, a Shih Tzu and I've been making money from gambling for around 8 years now.

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