UFC Fight Night 103 Betting Tips and Picks Allsopp Uncategorized January 13, 2017 UFC Fight Night 103 is the first UFC event of 2017 and also the first event where the new unified rules of MMA will be used. It’s unclear at this early stage how much of an impact the new rules will have on the sport, so we all need to be ready to adapt to this significant change, much faster than we adapted to the new USADA drug testing rules which came into effect this time last year. I’m hoping that our deep knowledge of the sport and our willingness to evolve will ensure that we continue to make money betting on MMA no matter how the sport ends up changing. Don’t forget to take advantage of our Live Betting Tips which we will be posting in our Live Betting Tips chatroom during UFC Fight Night 103. We made around 130 units of profit last year and I’m confident that we can repeat that success by making even more money in 2017. Our Live Betting Tips are completely free and the fastest, safest and easiest way to make significant amounts of money betting on MMA. Please keep checking this article regularly for updates because we’ll be adding more betting tips as we get closer to the time of the event. [vc_table vc_table_theme=”classic”][align-center]Fights,[align-center;c#000000]Betting%20Tips|[align-center]BJ%20Penn%20vs%20Yair%20Rodriguez,[align-center;c#ea5e50;b]No%20bet|[align-center;c#333333]Joe%20%20Lauzon%20vs%20Marcin%20Held,[align-center;c#68a143;b]Betting%20Tip%20Available|[align-center]Ben%20Saunders%20vs%20Court%20McGee,[align-center;c#ea5e50;b]No%20bet|[align-center]John%20Moraga%20vs%20Sergio%20Pettis,[align-center;c#359aff;b]Still%20researching|[align-center]Augusto%20Mendes%20vs%20Frankie%20Saenz,[align-center;c#68a143;b]Betting%20Tip%20Available|[align-center]Aleiksei%20Oleinik%20vs%20Viktor%20Pesta,[align-center;c#ea5e50;b]No%20bet|[align-center]Alex%20White%20vs%20Tony%20Martin,[align-center;c#ea5e50;b]No%20bet|[align-center]Jocelyn%20Jones-Lybarger%20vs%20Nina%20Ansaroff,[align-center;c#ea5e50;b]No%20bet|[align-center]Devin%20Powell%20vs%20Drakkar%20Klose,[align-center;c#ea5e50;b]No%20bet|[align-center]Chase%20Sherman%20vs%20Walt%20Harris,[align-center;c#ea5e50;b]No%20bet|[align-center]Bojan%20Mihajlovic%20vs%20Joachim%20Christensen,[align-center;c#ea5e50;b]No%20bet|[align-center]Cyril%20Asker%20vs%20Dmitry%20Smolyakov,[align-center;c#ea5e50;b]No%20bet[/vc_table]Betting Tip 1: Joe Lauzon to beat Marcin Held Fighting from bottom position is not an effective strategy in MMA because the fighter who is on top of them is almost always winning the fight in the eyes of the judges. Marcin Held is a fighter who spends far too much time fighting from bottom position whilst chasing long shot submissions. He’ll even pull guard to try and take a fight to the ground. This kind of strategy may occasionally work against lower level opponents in other promotions, but it will not work in the UFC. Marcin Held will continue to lose until he makes some significant changes to his fighting style. Will Brooks and Diego Sanchez recently showed us what happens when a one dimensional leg lock specialist fights a well rounded MMA fighter and I believe that we’ll see more of the same when Joe Lauzon takes on Marcin Held at UFC Fight Night 103. Reasons for placing this bet...[ultimate_icon_list icon_size=”18″][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Marcin Held is a one dimensional leg lock specialist and Joe Lauzon is a very experienced grappler. It will not be easy to make a grappler of Lauzon’s level tap out to a leg lock submission.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Joe Lauson has only been submitted twice in 38 pro fights.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Joe Lauzon has not lost a fight by submission in over 6 years.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Joe Lauzon is significantly better than Marcin Held in every single aspect of MMA.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Marcin Held is too comfortable fighting from bottom position. He also does nothing to improve his position when he is on the bottom. Marcin Held will even pull guard in a desperate attempt to get a fight to the ground.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Marcin Held is extremely one dimensional. He has no Plan B. He ALWAYS loses if he fails to secure a dominant position on the ground in the first round.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Joe Lauzon is very strong from top position and rarely makes mistakes on the ground which give up these strong positions.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Marcin Held chases long shot leg lock submissions on the ground which leaves him wide open to strikes from his opponent who is almost always in top position. In order to secure a leg lock submission, you need to commit both your hands to one of your opponent’s leg. This means that Marcin Held has no hands left to defend himself against strikes from his opponent when he is hunting for a leg lock submission.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Joe Lauzon is one of those fighters who can inflict a massive amount of damage from top position. His elbows from top position are particularly devastating.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Marcin Held has very low level striking and absolutely no power in his hands.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Marcin Held is very easy to gameplan for because he uses the same strategy in every fight and he only has one weapon that he can use against his opponent [leg locks].[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Marcin Held fades fast if he cannot secure a dominant position.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Marcin Held has questionable cardio, he tends to slow down quite quickly if he cannot secure a dominant position.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Marcin Held has the quit in him and he can be broken. Lauzon has a tendency to drag his opponents through hell and he always does a great job of landing vicious elbows. I believe there’s a very good chance that Lauzon breaks Held with his violent style of fighting.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][/ultimate_icon_list]Risk Factors...[ultimate_icon_list icon_size=”18″][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-exclamation-triangle warning” icon_color=”#ea5e50″]Marcin Held is a dangerous leg lock specialist. There’s always a chance that he could catch Lauzon in a submission.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][/ultimate_icon_list]Our Betting TipJoe Lauzon to winStake3.5 Units[3.5% of your bankroll]OddsDecimal = 1.91 Moneyline = -110 Fractional = 91/10052%Implied Probability The bookies believe that Joe Lauzon has a 52% chance of beating Marcin Held based on their current odds. 80%Our Probability We believe that Joe Lauzon has an 80% chance of beating Marcin Held based on our extensive research and analysis. Betting Tip 2: Frankie Saenz to beat Augusto Mendes Many of the fighters competing at UFC Fight Night 103 train in Arizona, but very few of them were born and raised there like Frankie Saenz was. This means that Frankie Saenz is one of the few fighters who has true home advantage going into his fight against Augusto Mendes. This should help him get over the line and pickup the win if the fight ends up being close… Reasons for placing this bet...[ultimate_icon_list icon_size=”18″][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Frankie Saenz has high level wrestling, excellent takedown defence and superb scrambles.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Augusto Mendes is a BJJ based fighter, but he doesn’t have strong enough wrestling to take Saenz down.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Frankie Saenz is very aggressive. He fights at a pace that will be difficult for Augusto Mendes to match.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Frankie Saenz is very tough. We’ve seen him fight out of some very bad positions.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Augusto Mendes has very poor striking defence.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Frankie Saenz is strong in the clinch and has decent dirty Boxing.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Frankie Saenz has a much higher output than Augusto Mendes. He should easily be able to outwork Mendes over 3 rounds.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Frankie Saenz has home advantage.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][/ultimate_icon_list]Risk Factors...[ultimate_icon_list icon_size=”18″][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-exclamation-triangle warning” icon_color=”#ea5e50″]Augusto Mendes is a high level BJJ Black Belt. This is a slight concern because Saenz is only a Blue Belt in BJJ… HOWEVER… Saenz is a strong wrestler, which makes it very unlikely that Mendes will be able to take this fight to the ground. [/ultimate_icon_list_item][/ultimate_icon_list]Our Betting TipFrankie Saenz to winStake3 Units[3% of your bankroll]OddsDecimal = 1.63 Moneyline = -160 Fractional = 63/10061%Implied Probability The bookies believe that Frankie Saenz has a 61% chance of beating Augusto Mendes based on their current odds. 70%Our Probability We believe that Frankie Saenz has a 70% chance of beating Augusto Mendes based on our extensive research and analysis. UFC Betting Tips - 0 Share on Facebook Share on X