UFC Fight Night 124 Betting Tips, Picks and Predictions

After a quiet period over Christmas, UFC Fight Night 124 kicks off another busy run as we now go 8 consecutive weeks with a UFC event. This run also includes a few high profile Bellator cards.

I have also finished rebuilding our Forum. The Forum is a great place to discuss fights, share your bets and also ask me any specific questions about upcoming fights or betting on MMA.

UFC Fight Night 124 looks like a really good event for betting. I expect to have several prefight bets and as always I expect us to make an absolute killing in Live Betting.

Emil Meek vs Kamaru Usman Betting Tip and Prediction

To beat a guy like Kamaru Usman you need to have good enough takedown defense to keep a fight standing or the kind of devastating knockout power that could put him to sleep with one punch. Emil Meek does not possess either of those skills, which makes Usman close to a lock in this matchup.

If you go back and watch Meek’s last fight against Jordan Mein, you’ll see that Mein was able to take him down and control him on the ground repeatedly. Mein was dominating Meek before bizarrely flaking out in round 2. Thankfully for us, Mein was able to do enough to show us that Meek is going to struggle badly against grapplers in the UFC.

Meek’s poor takedown defense against Jordan Mein was not an isolated incident. If you go back and watch some of his other fights, you’ll see that he struggles to keep fights standing against almost everybody. Check out his performance against Christophe Vandijck in the video below to see for yourself.

As you can see, Meek has gigantic holes in the grappling department, which makes this an easy fight for Kamaru Usman.

Meek even got lucky in his breakout performance in Venator FC against Rousimar Palhares. Sure, he won the fight by landing vicious elbows as Palhares was trying to take him down, but this was the wrong thing to do in this position. Instead of trying to land elbows, Meek should have been trying to secure underhooks and defend the takedown. He got lucky and won the fight on that occasion, but 9 times out of 10 he would have enabled his opponent to connect their hands together and secure a double leg takedown.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=86RIVdio67I

Anything can happen in MMA, but the odds are seriously stacked against Emil Meek in this matchup.

Reasons for betting on Kamaru Usman

Mads Burnell vs Mike Santiago Betting Tip and Prediction

Mike Santiago is the exact kind of fighter that I love to bet on because he is tough, scrappy, has cardio for days and always shows up and fights to his full potential. He’s also reasonably good in every single area of MMA, and he’s the kind of guy that will never quit.

Santiago is still only 28 years old and he’s making big improvements from fight to fight. He had a nightmare matchup in his UFC debut against Zabit Magomedsharipov but did well when you take into account how good Magomedsharipov is.

Mads Burnell’s strategy in all of his fights is to try and secure a takedown and then lay and pray on his opponent. He doesn’t have the striking to cause Santiago any problems and if he cannot get his opponent down he tends to go into a defensive shell. He has no plan B.

Santiago is an aggressive fighter who likes to come forward and throw bombs, but he also has a base in grappling and he’s a decent wrestler. He should be able to keep the majority of this fight standing and cause Burnell big problems with his more technical striking.

I believe Santiago is a solid bet in this matchup because Mads Burnell is primarily a grappler and there’s a very good chance that Santiago could dominate him on the ground. If it stays standing Burnell has no chance. Santiago has a huge advantage when it comes to striking.

Reasons for betting on Mike Santiago

Danielle Taylor vs JJ Aldrich Betting Tip and Prediction

Danielle Taylor has an annoying style of fighting which always results in her matchups being awkward and close. She spends the entire duration of a fight bouncing around on the outside and trying to catch her opponent’s with blitzes when they try to close the distance. She has had a reasonable amount of success utilizing this strategy in the UFC, and while she hasn’t looked impressive, her awkwardness and elusiveness have helped her go 4-1 in her last 5 fights against a decent level of opponent.

Taylor has been able to rack up wins in the Strawweight division because very few female fighters lack the footwork and technique to cut off the Octagon and maintain pressure, without falling for the trap of being caught by Taylor’s counter blitzes. She uses these blitzes as a defensive mechanism to keep her opponent out of a range where they can land on her.

Enter JJ Aldrich…

JJ Aldrich has been training in Tae Kwon Do since she was a young girl and she has some of the best footwork and movement in the UFC’s Strawweight division. Aldrich is perhaps the only girl in the division who can maintain constant pressure while possessing the footwork to slip just out of range when her opponent’s try to counter her as she comes forward. She does a great job of fighting with an aggressive matador style where she gives her opponent’s just enough rope to hang themselves. She will typically come forward and put a lot of pressure on her opponent, which then forces them to get aggressive and counter so that they maintain their space and positioning. She then uses her excellent footwork and head movement to slip just enough out of their range to land big counter’s while moving backward. This brings me to my next point…

JJ Aldrich is also one of the few girls in the UFC’s Strawweight division who can land effective strikes while moving backward. This is a difficult skill to master and all the years that Aldrich trained in Tae Kwon Do have helped her put together an excellent set of striking skills for MMA. Her footwork allows her to be the aggressor and a counter fighter at the same time. It’s rare that we see this level of technical striking in MMA, especially in the Women’s divisions.

Taylor has been able to rack up wins in the UFC by making her previous opponent’s pay for their inability to land strikes moving backward while she blitzes forward. This could land her in big trouble against Aldrich, who does a great job of landing strikes while moving backward. We also have to take into consideration the fact that Aldrich has a 7.5-inch reach advantage over Taylor. This is huge in the Strawweight division, and someone with the footwork and movement of Aldrich will be able to use this powerful weapon to make it extremely difficult for Taylor to land anything significant.

At the current odds JJ Aldrich is a great bet. She should be a much bigger favorite over Danielle Taylor.

Reasons for betting on JJ Aldrich