UFC Fight Night 125 Betting Tips, Picks and Predictions

Last weekend’s UFC on FOX 27 event was bad for betting, so we kept things tight, banked a solid profit on Bellator 193 and turned our attention to Live Betting where we made an absolute killing [again]. Don’t forget that if you’re a VIP Member, you can get a free week of access to my Live Betting Tips. All you need to do is email me at info@mmabettingtips.com to let me know when you’d like to take advantage of this offer.

Even if you live in a country like the United States where you can only Live Bet in between rounds, I urge you to give my Live Betting Tips a try. Our win rate is so high that you will still make money. You might not make as much as those of us who can bet during rounds, but you will definitely still make a good profit if you stick with us long term.

UFC Fight Night 125 looks very good for prefight betting, which means that I will have at least two rock-solid betting tips that should win easily. As ever I expect to make a killing in Live Betting.

So far we’ve done great in 2018, and I feel extremely confident that we can build on this with another strong set of results on Saturday night.

Anthony Smith vs Thiago Santos Betting Tip and Prediction

Anthony Smith only has a puncher’s chance of beating Thiago Santos. Skill for skill Santos should dominate this fight wherever it takes place.

Smith is tough and scrappy, but he fights in a similar style to other tall, long fighters like Stefan Struve. He’s slow and rigid in his movement, and he leaves his chin up high and exposed. Smith is too slow to have any long-term success at Middleweight, and he will be at extreme risk of being brutally KO’d in every single second of this fight.

This is a great matchup for Santos because he’s very technical, hits extremely hard and he’s also extremely fast. Smith has poor striking defense, and it should only be a matter of time before Santos lands a KO strike.

Thiago Santos’ only weakness is his grappling, but this should not be an issue against Smith because Smith also has weak wrestling and poor takedown defense. This will undoubtedly be a standup fight because Smith does not have the wrestling or ground game to take Santos down and hold him there.

Another major advantage that Santos has going into this matchup is his excellent cardio. Santos is a big, strong Middleweight, but he never gets tired, and he can fight at a high pace for 15 minutes no problem. Smith, on the other hand, has questionable cardio and tends to slow down considerably as the fight progresses. In the past, we have seen him gas out after just 1 round.

I love Thiago Santos in this fight. I would be blown away if Smith found a way to win. Santos is one of my most confident bets this year.

Reasons for betting on Thiago Santos

Sergio Moraes vs Tim Means Betting Tip and Prediction

Tim Means is a nightmare opponent for most guys in the UFC’s Welterweight division because he has a granite chin, he’s tough as hell, he’s good at everything, and he has cardio for days. Means is one of the few guys in the division without any weaknesses, which means Sergio Moraes has got his handsful in this matchup.

Sergio Moraes is primarily a grappler with a super high-level pedigree in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu. Moraes is terrifying on the ground, but his lack of wrestling makes it almost impossible for him to take most of his opponent’s down. This has resulted in Moraes having to develop striking because most of his fights end up staying standing because he lacks the wrestling to take his opponent’s down and most of his opponents are too scared to go to the ground with him.

Moraes has done a great job of developing striking over the last 4 – 5 years, but it is still nowhere near the level it needs to be to compete against a guy like Tim Means.

You know exactly what you are going to get from Tim Means whenever he fights. He’s going to walk his opponent down, stay in their face and chip away at them with a wide range of strikes. He will be in Sergio’s face for 15 minutes straight. This is a very difficult challenge for Moraes to overcome, because he doesn’t possess the skills to back Means up or slow down his forward pressure.

Moraes has also been plagued by bad cardio throughout his career. This is a huge problem against an aggressive opponent like Tim Means who will push a high pace and force Moraes to work hard for the entire duration of the matchup.

Just like with the Anthony Smith vs Thiago Santos fight, I don’t see how Sergio Moraes could beat Tim Means. There’s literally nothing he can do here. Means would have to significantly underperform or suffer a bad injury or incur a point deduction for Moraes to stand any chance. This is Tim Means’ easiest fight in a long time. He should beat Moraes easily.

Reasons for betting on Tim Means