UFC Fight Night 128 Betting Tips, Picks and Predictions

UFC Fight Night 128 is one of those cards that looks great for betting on paper, but when you start to dig a little deeper, you find that the majority of these fights should be super competitive.

With so many close stylistic matchups, this should be a great event for Live Betting, but it’s important to pump the breaks and keep things tight on pre-fight betting.

I’m really happy with our two prefight bets for this event, but remember that everybody can lose and they are not rock solid. My advice to you is to keep things tight, stick to the prefight betting tips and Live Betting Tips and don’t be tempted to place bets where fighters only have a marginal advantage. This is the kind of event that can turn into a minefield for betting because on paper some guys seem like a very good bet, when in reality they are not.

Edson Barboza vs Kevin Lee Betting Tip and Prediction

Edson Barboza hasn’t looked good in his last few fights, but that probably won’t matter because Kevin Lee only has the cardio to compete at a high level for two rounds. In a 3 round fight, I would favor Kevin Lee in this matchup, but this is a 5 round fight, which changes EVERYTHING.

If Kevin Lee does not find a way to finish Barboza within the first two rounds he is in big trouble and Khabib Nurmagomedov recently showed that Barboza is not an easy guy to finish. Kevin Lee also missed weight by one pound for this fight, which indicates that his difficulties in making 155 pounds will continue to have a negative effect on his cardio.

Kevin Lee is completely ineffective past the third round of his fights and Edson Barboza’s devastating body and leg kicks will accelerate the rate at which Lee’s pace and mobility decline.

Edson Barboza is also a bad stylistic matchup for Kevin Lee because he is extremely difficult to tie up and extremely difficult to take down. I give Lee the advantage when it comes to Boxing, but as the rounds tick by, Lee’s striking becomes significantly less dangerous and substantially more predictable. Lee will not pose a threat to Barboza standing if this fight goes past the second round because he will be too gassed and too slow to hurt Barboza.

To beat a guy like Edson Barboza you need to suffocate him with pressure. Go back and watch his fights against Tony Ferguson, Khabib Nurmagomedov, Beneil Dariush and Michael Johnson. Barboza struggled against all those guys because they did not give him room to breathe, which meant that he did not have the time and space to find his rhythm and execute his world-class kicking game. Now go and watch his fights against guys like Anthony Pettis, Paul Felder, and Gilbert Melendez. It’s like watching a different fighter, isn’t it? That’s because all those guys chose to engage Barboza in kickboxing range. They didn’t shut down his devastating kicks with pressure and volume. This enabled Barboza to settle into a rhythm, set up his kicks and pick his shots.

Kevin Lee does not possess the kind of cardio required to apply the level of pressure needed to cause Barboza a problem. If Lee can find a way to drag Barboza to the ground early, Barboza will be in big trouble, but aside from that Lee’s path to victory is very narrow.

We may have to sweat this bet early because Barboza’s Boxing isn’t great and Lee is a nightmare on the ground, but past the first two rounds, this should be all Edson Barboza. As a moderately sized underdog, I believe that Barboza is a great bet.

Reasons for betting on Edson Barboza

Cub Swanson vs Frankie Edgar Betting Tip and Prediction

All week I have been waiting to pull the trigger on Frankie Edgar in the hope that his odds would improve, but they have not budged. With just a few hours to go before the start of UFC Fight Night 128, it is now time for us to lock in this bet.

A few weeks back Cub Swanson appeared on the MMA Hour and told Ariel Helwani that his first loss to Frankie Edgar still haunted him and that he had been focusing hard on his wrestling and ground game ever since.

Cub did a reasonably good job of keeping the action standing in the first half of his fight against Frankie Edgar, but as the rounds ticked by the takedowns came easier and easier. This early success for Cub would at least suggest that he had a solid foundation to build upon and potentially develop the kind of takedown defense that could shut Frankie down.

When researching this fight, I looked closely at all of Cub Swanson’s fights since he fought Frankie Edgar back in 2014 to try and identify any clues that may give us some indication of how much Swanson’s takedown defense has improved since their first fight. Cub hasn’t fought many wrestlers since then, but he did get taken down and briefly controlled by Artem Lobov, and Tatsuya Kawajiri also found it easy to take him down and control him on the ground. If Kawajiri had not gassed out, he would have most likely beaten Swanson.

If Cub can find a way to keep this fight standing he will win because Frankie Edgar’s striking has become very ineffective against high-level opponent’s in recent years. But that is not what we are focusing on with this bet. Frankie’s strength is his wrestling and his world-class cardio that enables him to relentlessly chain his takedown attempts together until he can eventually drag his opponent to the ground.

Based on what I’ve seen from both guys since their first fight back in 2014 I believe that Edgar’s MMA wrestling has got better, while Swanson hasn’t shown me anything to suggest that his takedown defense has significantly improved.

This is a huge fight for Frankie Edgar. It’s in his hometown, and a win against Cub puts him right back in line for a title shot. To beat Frankie you need to be able to stuff his takedowns or possess the kind of one strike power that can put him to sleep. Historically Cub does not possess this kind of power or the takedown defense to keep this fight standing, so for those reasons I believe that Frankie is a very good bet.

Reasons for betting on Frankie Edgar