Bellator 198 Betting Tips, Picks and Predictions

At first glance Bellator 198 may not appear to be that good for betting because the heavy chalk and battle worn veterans do not appear to present us with many opportunities. Thankfully, after doing some digging I have managed to find at least one rock solid betting tip that should help us make some money on this event.

Fight	Betting Tip	Pick
Fedor Emelianenko vs Frank Mir	3 units on the under 1.5 rounds at odds of 1.70 \| -143 \| 7/10	Fedor to win
Emmanuel Sanchez vs Sam Sicilia	No bet	Sanchez to win
Gerald Harris vs Rafael Lovato Junior	Still researching	Still researching
Javier Torres vs Neiman Gracie	Still researching	Still researching
Dillon Danis vs Kyle Walker	No bet	Walker to win

Fedor Emelianenko vs Frank Mir Betting Tip and Prediction

A staggeringly high number of Fedor’s fights have ended in round 1, which makes the under 1.5 rounds a great bet at the current odds because at the age of 41 he is now more aggressive, more fearless and more fragile than ever before.

Fedor fights with a kill or be killed style that forces his opponents to engage. This has resulted in 22 of his last 29 career fights ending in round 1. Furthermore, 4 out of his last 5 fights have ended in round 1. The only fight in his last 5 matchups that didn’t end in round 1 was his fight against Fabio Maldonado in EFN. This fight would have been stopped in round 1 in almost any other promotion in the world because Fedor suffered a brutal beating and appeared to be unconscious at least twice. Here is the fight if you haven’t seen it:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6nmO9WeKdMA

This fight was shrouded in controversy because Fedor has close links with the promoter and Vladimir Putin attended the event. It was supposed to be a showcase for Russian MMA, but instead, Fedor suffered a brutal beating. The referee was reluctant to stop the fight because the promoter clearly did not want Fedor to lose. The judges ended up scoring the fight in favour of Fedor, which later got overturned due the dark cloud hanging over the event.

Fedor’s relentless aggression and rapidly declining chin make it difficult to see a realistic scenario where this fight could go past the second round.

Frank Mir also has a long history of his fights ending quickly, with 3 out of his last 4 fights all ending in round 1. At 38 years old Frank’s chin is definitely not what it used to be, and he’s much slower now. If you go back and watch some of Frank’s most recent fights, you’ll see that his movement is so slow that at times it looks like he is fighting underwater. Fedor is still incredibly fast for a Heavyweight, and I don’t think Mir has the chin or reflexes to survive a trademark Fedor onslaught that is likely to come swiftly and violently early on in this matchup.

The current implied probability on odds of 1.70 | 7/10 | -135 is 59%. When you consider how aggressive Fedor is and how easily both guys get rocked, I believe the under 1.5 rounds on this fight is an excellent bet. If you just wikicap this fight and look at how many times both these guys have seen their fights end under 1.5 rounds there is definite value in these odds. When you dig deeper into how these guys match up stylistically, you will quickly see that this is an excellent bet.

Reasons for betting on the under 1.5 rounds

[ultimate_icon_list icon_size=”18″][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]22 of Fedor’s last 29 fights have ended in round 1.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]4 out of Fedor’s last 5 fights have ended in round 1.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]3 out of Frank Mir’s last 4 fights have ended in round 1.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Fedor and Mir cannot take a punch anymore. Their chin’s appear to be completely shot.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Fedor is now 41 years old. Frank Mir is now 38 years old. Both fighters are currently on a steep decline.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Fedor is extremely aggressive. He fights with a kill or be killed style and tries to finish his opponent from the very first second. [/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Fedor swarms his opponents early and unleashes a barrage of vicious strikes. He is still very fast and hits very hard. I do not believe that Mir has the chin to survive one of these onslaughts at this stage in his career. [/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Frank Mir is now extremely slow and his reflexes have significantly declined. At 38 years old he is very easy to hit.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Frank Mir is devastating on the ground and he has a big size advantage over Fedor. If the fight goes to the ground, Mir should be able to get a finish. [/ultimate_icon_list_item][/ultimate_icon_list]

Risk Factors with betting on the under 1.5 rounds

[ultimate_icon_list icon_size=”18″][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-exclamation-triangle warning” icon_color=”#ea5e50″]Fedor is still extremely tough. You practically have to kill him to put him out.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-exclamation-triangle warning” icon_color=”#ea5e50″]If Mir fought smart, there is a chance he could run down the clock by trying to control Fedor against the cage.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-exclamation-triangle warning” icon_color=”#ea5e50″]Both guys may acknowledge that they are not as durable as they used to be. This could result in an awkward, prolonged fight where both guys are reluctant to engage. [/ultimate_icon_list_item][/ultimate_icon_list]

My Betting Tip

Under 1.5 rounds

Recommended Stake

3 Units

[3% of your bankroll]

Odds

Decimal = 1.70
Moneyline = -143
Fractional = 7/10

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Implied Probability

What is implied probability?

The bookies believe that this fight has a 59% chance of lasting less than 1.5 rounds based on their current odds.

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Our Probability

How do you calculate your probabilities?

We believe that this has a 70% chance of lasting less than 1.5 rounds based on our extensive research and analysis.