UFC Fight Night 130 Betting Tips, Picks and Predictions

UFC Liverpool gives us an excellent opportunity to get back in the win column after we’ve made a disappointing loss on the last two events. Zak Cummings to beat Michel Prazeres was one of my most confident prefight bets in a long time, but the early headbutt that caused a cut over his eye seemed to throw him off, and from there he never found his rhythm.

Michel Prazeres was able to secure a takedown in round 1 and after that Cummings seemed to be hypnotized by the threat of the takedown and struggled to let his hands go for the rest of the fight, for fear of being taken down. Prazeres was able to land his overhand right repeatedly despite Cummings having a massive 8-inch reach advantage.

Zak’s performance was exceptionally disappointing after he was able to cause guys like Santiago Ponzinibbio and Alexander Yakovlev problems. Michel Prazeres once again proved that he is a complicated puzzle to solve even when facing massive physical disadvantages.

As we head into UFC Liverpool, we have to take a moment to shake our heads at Darren Till and Molly McCann for missing weight. In the build-up, to their fights, both scousers have been very vocal, so it is ironic that things have played out this way. Here is a video of Molly McCann making fun of her last opponent for missing weight at Cage Warriors 88:

The Live Betting landscape for UFC Liverpool is uncertain because, like all European and Asian UFC events, we won’t know what will be available for Live Betting until the event starts. Historically we’ve only been able to Live Bet the Main Card of European Fight Night events, but for the first time in a long time, BT Sport is broadcasting the Prelims too. This does give us some hope that this time we’ll be able to Live Bet the Prelim and Main Card Fights.

My advice would be to join us in the Live Bet Feed at 4 pm British Time on Sunday, and we’ll try to figure out between us which betting websites are offering Live Betting on the Prelim Fights. Please be prepared for disappointment, because it is possible that we will only be able to Live Bet the Main Card.

Claudio Silva vs Nordine Taleb Betting Tip and Prediction

I first bet against Claudio Silva way back in 2014 when Leon “Rocky” Edwards traveled to Brazil to make his UFC debut against him. Usually betting on a young, inexperienced fighter making their UFC debut in Brazil, against a Brazilian would be a bad idea but Silva had looked so poor throughout his career that I thought Rocky would be able to get it done. Silva ended up looking terrible but somehow managed to pull off a trademark Brazilian hometown split decision win and Rocky ended up becoming just another statistic. In hindsight, I probably should have passed…

Fast forward four years and I’ve been waiting a long time to put a dent in that loss. After researching the fight between Claudio Silva and Nordine Taleb, I still feel strongly that Silva is not skilled enough to compete in the UFC and I also feel confident that Taleb is going to dominate this fight from start to finish.

Skill for skill Nordine Taleb is better than Claudio Silva everywhere, apart from pure Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, but that shouldn’t matter because Silva’s wrestling isn’t great and Taleb has that famous Tristar style takedown defense that makes it extremely difficult for his opponents to put him on his back.

Silva’s striking is wild, reckless and unpolished. If the fight stays standing Nordine should be able to use his superior technique to bait Silva into making mistakes. From there I expect Nordine to punish him. There is a very high chance that Nordine Taleb wins this fight by KO.

On the ground, Silva has an advantage, but it’s extremely difficult to take Taleb down. This is not surprising when you take into consideration the fact that Nordine Taleb is a long time training partner of George St-Pierre and Rory MacDonald. Taleb has also managed to defend 72% of all takedowns across eight fights in the UFC. In typical Tristar fashion, he has also been able to pop back up to his feet very quickly after being taken down. Either way, this should not matter because Silva has poor wrestling. Silva does have better Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu than Taleb, but Taleb is the stronger wrestler and should be able to dictate where the fight takes place.

The big factor to take into consideration in this matchup is that Claudio Silva has very poor cardio and he’s usually gassed out of his mind by the midway point of the second round. After a four year layoff and competing in the UFC under USADA for the very first time, I am guessing that his cardio will not have got any better.

This is a squash match, and I expect Nordine Taleb to dominate every single second of this fight. This bet should be an easy winner.

Reasons for betting on Nordine Taleb

Jason Knight vs Makwan Amirkhani Betting Tip and Prediction

I am very high on Jason Knight. Sure, he is a little reckless, but at just 25 years old he’s already great at everything, and he still has many years left to improve before he hits his prime. If Knight learns to pace himself a little better, he is going to be a force in the UFC’s Featherweight division.

We’ve bet on Jason Knight to win twice before in his fights against Chas Skelly and Gabriel Benitez, but he let us down with an out of character performance when he lost to Benitez back in December. Knight looked flat and much less aggressive than usual, and it later emerged that he was suffering from Strep Throat and had to take Antibiotics. If you’ve taken Antibiotics in the past and tried to do any athletic activity, you’ll know that Antibiotics destroy your cardio and energy levels, so it’s no surprise that Knight looked underwhelming in his fight against Benitez. Here is a video where Knight talks about the problems that he faced during that fight:

We lost money on Knight when Gabriel Benitez beat him, but the good news is that the bookies appear to have baked that poor performance into the odds on Knight to beat Makwan Amirkhani. If Knight shows up and performs to his full potential, he should be a much bigger favorite against Amirkhani than he is right now, but in the shadow of that bad performance, we now get to bet him at odds with a good amount of additional value.

When it comes to striking Jason Knight has a massive advantage over Makwan Amirkhani, but Amirkhani is a very strong wrestler, and Knight’s takedown defense isn’t great, so I expect the majority of this fight to take place on the ground. Amirkhani should be able to take Knight down easily, so you may be asking yourself why I am recommending that you bet on Jason Knight? This is why:

https://www.instagram.com/p/BjJIk2GB3ER/?hl=en&taken-by=eddiebravo10p

That was a video shared by Eddie Bravo on his personal Instagram profile earlier this week. It shows Jason Knight attacking with multiple submissions off his back. The fight in that video took place almost 3 years ago, and Knight has improved so much since then. When Eddie Bravo takes time out of his day to compliment a fighter’s ground game, you can bet your ass that the fighter in question is super legit.

That is the main reason why I love Jason Knight in this fight. There are levels to grappling and Jason Knight is several levels above Makwan Amirkhani. Knight probably won’t even try to stuff Amirkhani’s takedowns because he wants to be on the ground.

There are very few guys in MMA who I would bet on under these circumstances because being on your back is generally a losing position. If you are an Elite Member and listen to my commentary each week you will know that I often criticize fighters who are too comfortable fighting on their back, but there are a handful of Unicorns who are more dangerous from the bottom than most fighters are from top position. Jason Knight is one of the brightest, shinest Unicorns I have ever seen.

If this fight stays standing, I expect Knight to walk Amirkhani down, apply tons of pressure and win the striking exchanges by a wide margin with his aggressive, unorthodox style. If the fight goes to the ground, I expect Knight to put on a grappling clinic until Amirkhani eventually drowns in deep waters.

This is a very good stylistic match up for Jason Knight. He should win easily. I would even go as far as saying that Amirkhani has virtually no chance of winning if the athletic commission decides to use the new scoring criteria. Knight is too active off his back to lose a decision.

Reasons for betting on Jason Knight