UFC Fight Night – Burns vs Woodley Betting Tips, Picks and Predictions

This is the final MMA event of the month, and I am hoping that we can finish strong by banking a solid profit.

The bad luck that has plagued us in recent months on prefight bets now appears to be turning around, as we’ve now made a profit on 4 out of the last 5 events.

We had some good luck last weekend as Claudia Gadelha managed to dig deep in the final couple of minutes of round 3 to influence the judges into awarding her a split decision win. Many people disagreed with the decision and felt that Hill won, but I personally scored it for Gadelha.

Indeed, Hill did slightly outstrike Gadelha in round 3, but we know that judges tend to score rounds in favor of the fighter who finished the round stronger and in the final minutes of the 3rd round Gadelha landed a hard elbow on the exit from a clinch and backed Hill up with some powerful combinations. These were the most significant moments of the 3rd round, and I felt that they trumped anything that Hill had done up until that point. It felt great to bank a split decision win after so many decisions have gone against us in the last few months.

Unfortunately, we were not as lucky with our Live Bets because a few questionable decisions from the judges handed us our biggest losing night on Live Betting since DECEMBER 2018!

We Live bet Marlon Vera as a big underdog, and even though I scored the fight for him, it definitely wasn’t a robbery. In many ways, I felt like it was a similar fight to Hill vs Gadelha, where Hill did the better work for the majority of rounds, but Gadelha finished the rounds stronger. I felt Song outlanded Vera in every round, but Vera finished each round stronger and did more damage at the end of each round. This is usually enough to influence the judges, but it wasn’t enough for Vera. The way that the judges scored the fights between Gadelha and Hill compared to Song vs Vera were a massive contradiction.

We also live bet Edson Barboza in a fight that I felt he won pretty clear. The MMA scoring criteria states that immediate damage contributing to the end of the fight should count for more than cumulative volume. When Barboza folded Ige with a body kick towards the end of round 2, it should have been enough for him to clinch the first two rounds. Realistically Ige should have needed a finish in round 3 to win. I strongly feel like the judges got that one wrong.

We put our money in a couple of strong positions with those Live Bets and ended up losing both of them, which is really unlucky. I felt we were on the right side of both those bets and in a good position to go 2-0. We should have gone 1-1 at worst. To go 0-2 when we didn’t really do anything wrong, was really harsh.

The loss on the last event was especially disappointing because it resulted in our biggest losing night in Live Betting in almost 2 years. It also puts us back to roughly break-even for the month after racking up decent profits on the previous 2 events.

The positive to take from all this is that we get our money into the right position the vast amount of times we place Live Bets, and we will continue to grind out profits far more often than we have to take a loss.

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