I’m hoping to go 3rd time lucky on prefight bets this week, as our last 2 prefight bets on Alexander Romanov and Tyson Nam were canceled due to their opponents dropping out. I give my thoughts on how the last few weeks have gone for us, as well as review our performance in Live Betting in the breakdown video for our first bet of this week. Check it out and let me know what you think in the Chat Room
UFC Fight Night Covington vs Woodley is the final event in Las Vegas before the UFC moves back to Fight Island. The referees and judges were appallingly bad the last time the UFC held events there, so I am hoping for some drastic improvements, or October is likely to be a Rollercoaster.
Overall the judging has been excellent at the UFC Apex Center under the watchful eye of the Nevada State Athletic Commission. This has resulted in us grinding out 9 units of profit in Live Betting over the last 5 weeks.
To celebrate this final event in Vegas, I am running a promotion this weekend to get as many people Live Betting with us as possible. Let’s have one big party before we head back to the chaos of Fight Island! I hope you will join us. This looks to be a good event for Live Betting, so I am hoping to bank another solid profit before we likely need to play things a bit differently next month for the fights on Fight Island.
You can access my Live Betting Tips this weekend for a one time payment for just $33.
|Fight||Betting Tip||Who I think will win||Who I think is the better bet|
|Colby Covington vs Tyron Woodley||No bet||Covington||Woodley|
|Donald Cerrone vs Niko Price||No bet||Price||Price|
|Gerald Meerschaert vs Khamzat Chimaev||5 units on Khamzat Chimaev to win at odds of 1.22 | -455 | 11/50||Chimaev||Chimaev|
|Johnny Walker vs Ryan Spann||No bet||Spann||Spann|
|Mackenzie Dern vs Randa Markos||2 units on Mackenzie Dern to win at odds of 1.61 | -164 | 61/100||Dern||Dern|
|Darren Stewart vs Kevin Holland||No bet||Holland||Stewart|
|Mara Romero Borella vs Mayra Bueno Silva||No bet||Silva||Borella|
|Jeremiah Wells vs Miguel Baeza||No bet||Baeza||Baeza|
|David Dvorak vs Jordan Espinosa||No bet||Espinosa||Espinosa|
|Jessica Rose Clark vs Sarah Alpar||No bet||Rose-Clark||Alpar|
|Journey Newson vs Randy Costa||No bet||Costa||Costa|
|Andre Ewell vs Irwin Rivera||Still researching||Still researching|
|Damon Jackson vs Mirsad Bektic||No bet||Bektic||Jackson|
|Darrick Minner vs TJ Laramie||No bet||Laramie||Minner|
|Jerome Rivera vs Tyson Nam||No bet||Nam||Nam|
Mackenzie Dern vs Randa Markos Betting Tip
My Betting Tip
Mackenzie Dern to win
[2% of your bankroll]
Decimal = 1.61
Moneyline = -164
Fractional = 61/100
The bookies believe that Mackenzie Dern has a 62% chance of beating Randa Markos based on their current odds.
Gerald Meerschaert vs Khamzat Chimaev Betting Tip
My Betting Tip
Khamzat Chimaev to win
[5% of your bankroll]
Decimal = 1.22
Moneyline = -455
Fractional = 11/50
The bookies believe that Khamzat Chimaev has an 82% chance of beating Gerald Meerschaert based on their current odds.
Mackenzie Dern vs Randa Markos
I recommend betting Mackenzie Dern. Checkout the Betting Tip video above for a full breakdown of the reasons why.
Mara Romero Borella vs Mayra Bueno Silva
Silva and Borella have extreme advantages in the areas where their opponent is very weak. Silva has excellent Muay Thai and hits hard. Borella has bad striking defense, doesn’t see the shots coming and frequently gets rocked and dropped. If the fight stays standing it’s very likely that Borella gets KO’d. Unfortunately Silva has questionable takedown defense and she’s super weak off her back. Borella’s not the best wrestler, but she does have a heavy top game and will be looking to get this fight to the ground.
Silva is the rightful favorite here because she has a big advantage when it comes to striking and can hold her own on the ground. I wouldn’t bet Borella here because Silva’s advantages standing are massive, but Silva is so weak off her back it’s not a good idea to bet her as a big favorite either. Easy pass for me.
Journey Newson vs Randy Costa
There’s not much recent footage available on Costa or Newson, which makes it difficult to get a strong read on this fight, but Costa will have a big size advantage over Journey Newson and throws long, looping punches from a Karate stance. Newson is primarily a grappler, who likes to stay on the outside and chip away at his opponent with kicks.
This is a classic dog or pass fight. Based on recent performances I slightly lean towards Costa, but there’s not enough recent footage on either of these guys to form a strong opinion.
Johnny Walker vs Ryan Spann
Johnny Walker and Ryan Spann have extreme weaknesses in the areas where their opponents are very dangerous. Johnny Walker has questionable takedown defense and a low level ground game and Spann is a good offensive wrestler and dangerous submission grappler. Spann on the other hand has bad striking defense and gets rocked, dropped and wobbled a lot. This is a huge problem against someone as explosive and dangerous standing as Walker.
This fight is an easy pass because Spann will be at constant risk of getting KO’d when the fight is standing, but Spann can likely submit Walker very quickly if it goes to the ground. This fight is a coinflip and there’s no value on either side. I highly recommend avoiding this fight.
Donald Cerrone vs Niko Price
When it comes to Donald Cerrone fights we always say “if he just uses his grappling this could be an easy fight for him”, then inevitably he doesn’t and we swear to never consider that as a factor in betting his fights ever again. I promised myself after his last few performances that I wouldn’t keep putting so much weight on Cerrone’s grappling as a path to victory, but it’s so hard to ignore it after researching this fight because Niko Price is truly a White Belt level grappler. On top of this, Cerrone showed much more willingness to grapple in his last fight against Anthony Pettis after shooting 5-6 takedowns in 15 minutes which is a hell of a lot more than he usually attempts. Perhaps this is a sign that Cerrone is starting to accept his limitations as a fighter and is looking to evolve his style of fighting in the same way that we saw Glover Teixeira do a few years back.
If this fight stays standing, Cerrone is in big trouble because Niko Price has major power in his hands and Cerrone has bad Boxing defense. On the flipside, Price is extremely low level on the ground. If Cerrone comes in with a grappling heavy gameplan, Price is in big trouble. I recommend checkout the Geoff Neal fight, specifically the 2nd round to see what I mean.
David Dvorak vs Jordan Espinosa
David Dvorak is a very passive, low volume striker, whereas Jordan Espinosa likes to throw a very high volume of strikes. If this fight stays standing, Espinosa should be able to rack up major volume and outstrike Dvorak. Espinosa’s weakness is on the ground and Dvorak is a strong grappler although he doesn’t shoot many takedowns. We also don’t know a lot about Espinosa’s takedown defense.
This fight is frought with risk because Espinosa is likely to do very well if the fight stays standing, but on the ground he’s likely to struggle. The odds of around even money make a lot of sense with a good number of unanswered questions on this matchup.
Jessica Rose-Clark vs Sarah Alpar
This is a classic striker vs grappler matchup. Alpar is the grappler who will want to get this fight to the ground, although she may not have an advantage there. She’s one of these grapplers that lacks physicality. Rose-Clark is one of these fighters that is good at being the hammer, but not so good at being the nail. She’s very heavy from top position, while at the same time being very weak off her back. Rose-Clark will have a huge advantage if it stays standing.
Rose-Clark is the rightful favorite here because she has a huge advantage over Alpar when it comes to striking and can hold her own on the ground. I wouldn’t bet her though because she’s very weak off her back and Alpar is primarily a grappler. It’s a similar type of stylistic matchup to Borella vs Silva.