We have another busy week ahead of us with a solid Bellator card on Thursday night that features a title fight between Carvalho and Pitbull. This is one of the best Bellator cards in a while because it does feature a couple of other fights featuring solid fighters that should result in competitive matchups.
We then have another UFC event on Saturday. At the time of writing this, I’m not sure what the main event will be since Islam Makhachev pulled out of the fight on Sunday and a replacement has not been announced yet.
Last week we suffered a small 1 unit loss on Bevon Lewis after he failed to show up and perform. This of course was one of the risk factors we identified in betting him, but it’s still frustrating to watch a guy go out there and not perform anywhere near the level that we know he’s capable of.
We put in another solid night of Live Betting to go 2-1 on the night for an overall profit of around 1.7 units. We now extend our winning run to 4 profitable months in a row and we haven’t taken a notable loss Live Betting the UFC since mid July!!! With all the UFC events taking place at the Apex center in Vegas between now and the end of the year I am very confident that we can continue this winning run going and finish the year strong.
I go into more depth on Bevon Lewis, our Live Betting performance and how well our Prop Bets have been doing recently in the video below:
|Fight||Betting Tip||Who I think will win||Who I think is the better bet|
|Paul Felder vs Rafael Dos Anjos||No bet||Dos Anjos||Felder|
|Abdul Razak Alhassan vs Khaos Williams||No bet||Alhassan||Williams|
|Dontale Mayes vs Roque Martinez||No bet||Mayes||Martinez|
|Antonio Arroyo vs Eryk Anders||No bet||Arroyo||Arroyo|
|Cory McKenna vs Kay Hansen||3 units on Kay Hansen to win at odds of 1.47 | -212 | 47/100||Hansen||Hansen|
|Ashley Yoder vs Miranda Granger||No bet||Yoder||Yoder|
|Alex Morono vs Rhys McKee||No bet||Morono||Morono|
|Jose Alberto Quinonez vs Louis Smolka||Still researching||Still researching|
|Kanako Murata vs Randa Markos||No bet||Murata||Murata|
|Brendan Allen vs Sean Strickland||No bet||Strickland||Strickland|
|Geraldo de Freitas vs Tony Gravely||No bet||Gravely||de Freitas|
My Betting Tip
Hansen to win
[3% of your bankroll]
Decimal = 1.47
Moneyline = -213
Fractional = 47/100
The bookies believe that Kay Hansen has a 68% chance of beating Cory McKenna based on their current odds.
Geraldo de Freitas vs Tony Gravely
Tony Gravely is a former NCAA Div 1 level wrestler but despite having a good number of pro MMA fights, his collegiate wrestling style hasn’t transitioned well into MMA. I am not sure why this happens, but some guys from NCAA level wrestling become excellent MMA grapplers and some don’t. There’s a huge gulf in what you see between guys like Gregor Gillespie and guys like Darrion Caldwell and unfortunately Gravely is much more closely positioned to Caldwell’s style of MMA grappling.
Gravely has decent offensive wrestling, but his top game is weak and his BJJ just isn’t there. He often exposes his back and doesn’t look confident working out of bad positions.
De Freitas is a big, aggressive pressure striker with a base in BJJ. He’s physically imposing and tricky on the ground but he gives up position way too much chasing long shot submissions. He also spends way too long on his back playing guard, which isn’t usually a good idea because being on the bottom is often a losing position in the eyes of the judges.
De Freitas is a very tempting bet at underdog odds, but I can’t ignore that he spends way too long on his back throwing up longshot triangles and armbars. Gravely isn’t great, but he does have a collegiate wrestling background and he’s fighting a guy who wants to be on his back. De Freitas is a very live dog here, but I also wouldn’t be surprised if he screwed around on his back for 15 minutes and lost a decision. It’s a pass from me.
Cory McKenna vs Kay Hansen
I recommend betting Kay Hansen.
Ashley Yoder vs Miranda Granger
Ashley Yoder and Miranda Granger have a lot in common. They’re both abnormally long and tall for the division and they both have a base in BJJ. Yoder is the stronger wrestler out of the two, but it’s hard to gauge how much of an advantage she’ll have over Granger on the ground because there’s not that much footage available on Granger’s ground game.
Neither girl is particularly skilled striking, but Granger’s defense and technique is much tighter. If the fight stays standing, Granger should have a decent advantage.
I definitely lean Yoder here because she’s a strong wrestler, with a decent top game and high level BJJ. This enables her to dictate where the fight takes place. Problem is, we said the same things about her when she went into her last fight against Souza and she didn’t shoot a single double leg in 15 minutes despite having a brilliant double leg takedown in her skillset. This is a red flag for me. Yoder has the skills to win this but her bad fight IQ may hold her back.
Kanako Murada vs Randa Markos
This is a great stylistic matchup for Murada because she’s a strong wrestler with a heavy top game. Randa Markos has bad takedown defense and a low level ground game. Murada should be able to take Randa down and use her physicality to rack up a lot of control time.
Murada is an extremely tempting bet. She is my most reluctant pass out of all the fights I have passed on this week. I am just concerned about her being a decent sized favorite in her UFC debut against a tough, scrappy opponent. This is a very difficult stylistic matchup for Markos.
Dontale Mayes vs Roque Martinez
This is a fight between two very low level Heavyweights. Dontale Mayes has a big size advantage over Martinez but doesn’t use it that well and Martinez is quite a one dimensional Boxer who may struggle to get inside on a larger opponent.
Martinez has a one dimensional style of fighting which involves walking his opponent down and throwing short, straight punches. Mayes likes to circle on the outside and throw single shots, but he’s not that accurate. Mayes deserves to be the favorite here, but there’s no way I’d bet him as a big favorite because he has bad fight IQ and Martinez is tough. This one is an easy pass.
Abdul Razak Alhassan vs Khaos Williams
This is a great stylistic matchup for Alhassan because he’s better than Williams everywhere. Williams is big, strong, powerful and athletic, but he doesn’t really have the skills to back it up.
Williams likes to blitz forward, with wild looping hooks, but Alhassan’s Boxing is much more technical. Straight punches beat wide punches and Alhassan’s speed and technique should be the difference here.
Alhassan should win easily, but it’s dangerous to bet him as a big favorite because he’s very wreckless and has bad fight IQ.