UFC Fight Night – Santos vs Teixeira kicks off a brand new month of betting that features 3 Bellator events and 4 UFC events throughout November.
Last month saw us going 2-1 on prefight bets for around 1 unit of profit. We hit winners on Barboza and Sandhagen, with our loser being Andre Fili. We also managed to bank around 6 units of profit in Live Betting, extending our winning run to 3 consecutive profitable months.
I talk more about our bets and performance throughout October in the video below:
|Fight||Betting Tip||Who I think will win||Who I think is the better bet|
|Glover Teixeira vs Thiago Santos||No bet||Santos||Teixeira|
|Andrei Arlovski vs Tanner Boser||No bet||Boser||Arlovski|
|Khalid Taha vs Roani Barcelos||No bet||Barcelos||Barcelos|
|Brendan Allen vs Ian Heinisch||No bet||Heinisch||Heinisch|
|Claudia Gadelha vs Xiaonan Yan||No bet||Gadelha||Gadelha|
|Giga Chikadze vs Jamey Simmons||No bet||Chikadze||Chikadze|
|Bevon Lewis vs Trevin Giles||1 unit on Bevon Lewis to win at odds of 1.87 | -115 | 87/100||Lewis||Lewis|
|Alexander Romanov vs Marcos Rogerio De Lima||No bet||Romanov||Romanov|
|Darren Elkins vs Eduardo Garagorri||No bet||Elkins||Elkins|
|Anthony Birchak vs Gustavo Lopez||No bet||Lopez||Lopez|
|Max Griffin vs Ramiz Brahimaj||No bet||Griffin||Griffin|
My Betting Tip
Lewis to win
[1% of your bankroll]
Decimal = 1.87
Moneyline = -115
Fractional = 87/100
The bookies believe that Bevon Lewis has a 53% chance of beating Trevin Giles based on their current odds.
Alexander Romanov vs Marcos Rogerio De Lima
This is not a Betting Tip. I originally recommend betting Alexander Romanov when he was scheduled to fight Marcos Rogerio De Lima in his UFC debut. The odds on Romanov back then were around 1.83 | -120.
Unfortunately after performing well in his rescheduled debut against Roque Martinez, he is now a much bigger at 1.33 | -303 against Marcos Rogerio De Lima in this rescheduled fight. I do not recommend betting on Romanov at these odds.
This is a very bad stylistic matchup for Marcos Rogerio De Lima because he has bad takedown defense and he’s weak off his back. This is a huge issue against someone like Romanov because Romanov has great offensive wrestling and a very heavy top game. We’ve also seen De Lima quit very quickly when put in bad positions on the ground.
Romanov should win easily, but it’s not smart to bet on big favorites in Heavyweight fights. Every Heavyweight carries the power in their hands to knock out any other Heavyweight and Romanov is very wreckless standing. De Lima hits hard and it’s possible he catches Romanov with something big. This is a reluctant pass but also a very easy pass at these odds.
Betting Heavyweight’s at big favorite odds will get you into trouble long term. It’s hard to make a long term profit on these kinds of bets.
Darren Elkins vs Eduardo Garagorri
Garagorri has extremely bad takedown defense and a low level ground game. That means that this is a potentially terrible matchup for him because Elkins is primarily a grappler with a good enough gas tank to grapple hard for 3 rounds. Elkins’ advantages on the ground are so big that if he can get this fight to the ground, there’s a good chance that he finds a way to finish Garagorri.
Unfortunately at this stage in his career Elkins is starting to look completely shot and tends to take big damage in all of his fights. His striking defense is really bad and he just doesn’t see the shots coming. Garagorri is very fast and accurate and has dangerous power in his hands. Elkins will be at constant risk of getting knocked while this fight is standing.
This is one of those fights where both guys have extreme weakness in the areas that the other guy is very strong, making this matchup a very easy pass. If the fight goes to the ground, Garagorri is in big trouble but Elkins will be at constant risk of getting knocked out for every second that this fight is standing.
Claudia Gadelha vs Xiaonan Yan
Xiaonan Yan was one of the first names that jumped out at me as a potential bet this week after Claudia Gadelha’s poor performance against Angela Hill, but I was kind of blown away by how average Yan looked in her past performances.
Yan has pretty bad striking defense when on the front foot. It’s a lot better when she chooses to counter strike, but coming forward she’s very hittable. Her takedown defense and ground game are also extremely bad.
Skill for skill Gadelha is better than Yan everywhere and if she can consistently get this fight to the ground, Yan will be in a lot of trouble. This is an interesting matchup because Yan is a cardio machine who pushes a high pace, whereas Gadelha tends to slow down a lot in the second round. The problem is that Gadelha is a bit like Demian Maia. She is one of those fighters that is still a nightmare on the ground when she gets tired, she just struggles to hit takedowns when she gets tired. Problem is, Yan’s takedown defense is so bad that it might not matter.
After Gadelha’s poor performance against Angela Hill I promised myself I’d never bet her again, but she’s damn tempting here at underdog odds. I know that a lot of people will be on Yan here due to recency bias and I would urge you to do your own research on this one before taking a shot on her. I can’t believe I am saying this, but this is Gadelha’s fight to lose.
Bevon Lewis vs Trevin Giles
I recommend betting Bevon Lewis.
Max Griffin vs Ramiz Brahimaj
This should be an easy fight for Max Griffin if Brahimaj shows up and performs like he has in the past. The problem is that there’s not much footage available on Brahimaj from over the last 2.5 years which means he could have improved a lot since we last had a good look at him.
Brahimaj is a decent offensive wrestler, but Griffin’s got good takedown defense and a much better gas tank. Brahimaj’s main weakness is that his cardio is very bad, but if he’s tightened that up in the last 2 years this could end up being a competitive fight.
Max Griffin is a super tempting bet, but I feel a bit uncomfortable betting on him here because Brahimaj is a bit of an unknown. We don’t know what version of him we’re going to get.
Brendan Allen vs Ian Heinisch
Glover Teixeira vs Thiago Santos