UFC on FOX 22 Betting Tips, Picks and Predictions

We’ve been grinding out profits almost every weekend since August and I feel confident that we can keep this winning run going by making even more money from our betting tips for UFC on FOX 22.

I also want to encourage you to take advantage of our Live Betting Tips. We’ve already made over 135 units of profit this year and I expect to break the 150 units of profit mark before the end of 2016. Our Live Betting Tips are completely free and the fastest, safest and easiest way to make significant amounts of money betting on MMA. We will be posting our Live Betting Tips for UFC on FOX 22 in our Live Betting Tips chatroom during the fights on Saturday night.

Don’t forget to keep checking this article regularly for updates because we’ll be adding more betting tips for UFC on FOX 22 as we get closer to the time of the event.

You won’t see me betting 5 units on a fighter making their UFC debut very often, but this is too good of an opportunity to turn down.

Leslie Smith is the perfect opponent for Irene Aldana to showcase her skills against and I can’t help but feel that the UFC matchmakers are punishing Smith for being so outspoken about fighter pay. I literally can’t think of many worse matchups for Smith in the 135 pound Women’s division.

I’ve been saying for the last 12 months that Aldana is in the top 10 best female Bantamweights in the world and I predict she is going to stake her claim in the division by putting in a dominant performance against Leslie Smith at UFC on FOX 22.

Aldana’s excellent movement, high level boxing and knockout power should be too much for a battle worn, one dimensional fighter like Leslie Smith to handle.

Urijah Faber has always struggled to beat opponent’s who he can’t take down which makes this an interesting fight because Brad Pickett has good enough takedown defence to keep this fight standing. For that reason I believe Pickett is a great bet at the current odds.

My belief that Brad Pickett is a good bet is also backed up by the numbers behind the bet…

Betting websites have probabilities that they assign to each fighter winning. This probability can be worked out with a small calculation using their betting odds. This is called the Implied Probability of a fighter winning. The current Implied Probability on Brad Pickett to win is just 22%. This means that the Bookies believe that Pickett only has a 22% chance of winning this fight. If you believe Pickett has a better than 22% chance of beating Urijah Faber, it means that there is value in betting him and therefore it makes him a good bet. The current odds on this matchup are absolute madness when you take into consideration how both guys have performed over the last two years. This fight is much closer to 50 / 50 than the odds would suggest.

Urijah Faber really struggles to put his stamp on rounds when he can’t get a takedown and when fighters talk about retiring it often means that they are no longer committed to training hard or fighting. This is Faber’s last fight before he retires, which is just one of the reasons why I believe Pickett is a great bet at the current odds.

Sage Northcutt has looked extremely bad against low level opponents, whilst Mickey Gall has looked incredible against an even worse level of opponent. This doesn’t tell us much about how these fighters stack up against each other, but there are subtle clues in their performances which does give me a strong indication of how this fight will most likely play out…

I recommend betting on Mickey Gall to beat Sage Northcutt because Sage continues to make fatal errors on the ground. He frequently gives up position and leaves himself open to getting caught in submissions. Sage also does not look comfortable striking. He always looks to take his opponent’s down because he does not like to exchange.

Mickey Gall has strong BJJ and a solid ground game. He’s also really quick at taking the back, strong from top position and he can dish out a tremendous amount of damage from a small amount of space.

Gall’s skills on the ground will cause Sage problems because Gall will capitalize on openings when Sage makes mistakes and gives up position. Sage finds himself in bad positions in every fight against much lower level grapplers than Mickey Gall. For that reason I feel like Gall is a good bet at almost even money.

Mike Perry is an exciting young fighter at just 25 years old, but I can’t help but feel that this matchup has come too soon. Perry has a ton of heart and he’s very aggressive, but he also has massive weaknesses in his overall skillset that see him frequently get rocked or KO’d when he fights.

These weaknesses include poor striking defence and a lack of footwork and head movement. He also keeps his hands very low and tends to get rocked a lot in his fights. I’ve also noticed that he instinctively ducks his head down to his right when he gets hit or tries to evade a strike. This means that he will be moving into the power left side of his opponent. This kind of weakness is suicide against a dangerous Southpaw striker like Alan Jouban. These weaknesses will leave him extremely vulnerable to Jouban’s devastating left head kick thrown from the Southpaw stance. You can see each of these weaknesses in Mike Perry’s fight against Frank Carrillo which took place just 9 months ago. Perry has improved since this fight, but not by that much…

After researching this fight I was truly baffled by the odds. There’s just no way that Alan Jouban should be the underdog here. I’d personally cap him at odds closer to 1.40 | -250. I’d be amazed if Perry manages to survive Jouban’s pinpoint accurate left head kick. Perry has a bright future in MMA, but this is a terrible matchup for him at this stage in his career.