UFC on FOX 23 Betting Tips, Picks and Predictions Allsopp Uncategorized January 24, 2017 UFC on FOX 23 is taking place in Denver, Colorado, which means that the fighters competing on this event will have to fight in high altitude. This is an important factor to take into consideration because high altitude will have a big impact on fighter cardio. When researching these fights it’s important to factor the high altitude conditions into our decision making. For example… A big part of my research for UFC on FOX 23 has been to find out where each fighter is training in preparation this event. If they’re training at sea level they’re really going to struggle to perform at altitude. I’m looking to bet on fighters who have gone to high altitude climates early to adjust to the thin air. It’s also important to remember that fights are much more likely to go the distance in high altitude climates. This is because fighters become tired much sooner into the fight, so they lack the power and energy required to finish their opponent’s. Fighters also tend to become very sweaty early on in the fight, which makes it harder to lock in submissions. We can never be 100% sure how each fighter is going to react to competing in high altitude climates, so I urge you to treat this event with caution. Don’t bet too big on any particular fighter because they might gas out very fast. UFC on FOX 23 is the last major MMA event in January and I am hoping that we can extend our winning run to 7 consecutive months by recording another profit from the betting tips that you can find below. Don’t forget to stop by our forum to let us know how you think these fights are going to play out. Please keep checking this article regularly for updates because we’ll be adding more betting tips as we get closer to the time of the event. [vc_table vc_table_theme=”classic”][align-center]Fights,[align-center;c#000000]Betting%20Tips|[align-center]Julianna%20Pena%20vs%20Valentina%20Shevchenko,[align-center;c#68a143;b]Betting%20Tip%20Available|[align-center;c#333333]Donald%20%20Cerrone%20vs%20Jorge%20Masvidal,[align-center;c#ea5e50;b]No%20bet|[align-center]Andrei%20Arlovski%20vs%20Francis%20Ngannou,[align-center;c#ea5e50;b]No%20bet|[align-center]Alex%20Caceres%20vs%20Jason%20Knight,[align-center;c#ea5e50;b]No%20bet|[align-center]Nate%20Marquardt%20vs%20Sam%20Alvey,[align-center;c#68a143;b]Betting%20Tip%20Available|[align-center]Aljamain%20Sterling%20vs%20Raphael%20Assuncao,[align-center;c#68a143;b]Betting%20Tip%20Available|[align-center]Bobby%20Nash%20vs%20Jingliang%20Li,[align-center;c#68a143;b]Betting%20Tip%20Available|[align-center]Jordan%20Johnson%20vs%20Luis%20Henrique%20Da%20Silva,[align-center;c#ea5e50;b]No%20bet|[align-center]Alessio%20Di%20Chirico%20vs%20Eric%20Spicely,[align-center;c#ea5e50;b]No%20bet|[align-center]Jeremy%20Kimball%20vs%20Marcos%20Rogerio%20De%20Lima,[align-center;c#ea5e50;b]No%20bet|[align-center]Alexandre%20Pantoja%20vs%20Eric%20Shelton,[align-center;c#ea5e50;b]No%20bet|[align-center]Jason%20Gonzalez%20vs%20JC%20Cottrell,[align-center;c#ea5e50;b]No%20bet[/vc_table]Betting Tip 1: Valentina Shevchenko to beat Julianna Pena[mpc_divider align=”left” lines_color=”#679f42″ lines_weight=”5″ padding_css=”padding:0px;” margin_divider=”true” margin_css=”margin-bottom:20px;”] In 2016 we bet on Cat Zingano to beat Julianna Pena at UFC 200 and the bet lost. 2016 was a particularly bad year for betting on MMA, but this losing bet is the one that haunts me more than any other because of the nature in which we had to watch our money slip away from us… Going into the fight I was super confident that Cat Zingano would win. Afterall, Zingano was better than Pena in every single aspect of MMA, with the toughness, cardio and heart to deal with anything that Pena could throw at her. What could possibly go wrong? Before conducting my research for the Zingano fight at UFC 200, I had identified that Pena had very low level striking, weak wrestling and questionable cardio. She was strong when she gained top position, but she really struggled to get fights to the ground. In a way she reminded me of Paige VanZant because she uses high risk head and arm throws or trips to try and take her opponents to the ground. Somehow, despite my research, I had to sit and watch Pena repeatedly gain dominant positions over Cat Zingano on the ground. It wasn’t until I rewatched the fight a couple of days ago as part of my research for Pena’s fight with Shevchenko that I was able to properly digest what had happened in that fight. The fact is that Julianna Pena did not dominate Cat Zingano on the ground because she was the more skilled fighter. Instead, Cat repeatedly made fundamental mistakes that made it easy for Pena to secure top position and hold it. Julianna Pena did not beat Cat Zingano at UFC 200… Cat Zingano beat herself… So why is this relevant now? This is relevant because Julianna Pena vs Valentina Shevchenko is a classic striker vs grappler matchup and if Pena was able to repeatedly take down and control a strong wrestler like Cat Zingano, surely she should be able to do the same to Shevchenko? Well. Under normal circumstances, yes, but a closer examination of their recent fights shows that Pena only gains top position when her opponent’s make basic mistakes that Shevchenko should be able to avoid repeating. This bet won’t be an easy winner because I do expect Pena to have some success early on, but when it’s all said and done I expect Shevchenko to get the win. At the current odds I believe Shevchenko is a solid bet. Reasons for placing this bet...[mpc_divider align=”left” lines_color=”#679f42″ lines_weight=”5″ padding_css=”padding:0px;” margin_divider=”true” margin_css=”margin-bottom:20px;”][ultimate_icon_list icon_size=”18″][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Valentina Shevchenko has significantly better striking.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Valentina Shevchenko has excellent distance control and timing.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Valentina Shevchenko is a Southpaw.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Julianna Pena has very poor striking defence.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Valentina Shevchenko has excellent counter striking and Julianna Pena likes to rush into her opponent’s range with her chin up high and exposed.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Valentina Shevchenko is very fast for a Bantamweight. She will have a huge speed advantage over Pena.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]The new MMA scoring suggests that the guard is now a 50 / 50 position unless the fighter in top position does damage, goes for submissions or works to improve their position. If Pena gains a long period of top position on Shevchenko, she might not win the round unless she does something significant.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Valentina Shevchenko has a very economical style of fighting. There’s no wasted energy. Every strike is thrown with speed and precision and her movement is very fluid. This will help her to perform to her full potential for longer periods of time in the high altitude climate of Denver, Colorado.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Valentina Shevchenko appears to be very focused and motivated for this fight. She is currently living and training in Denver, Colorado in order to adjust to the high altitude. She has also been training with world class fighters like Rose Namajunas.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Julianna Pena pulls guard. This is a losing strategy in MMA.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Valentina Shevchenko is very tough. We’ve seen her fight out of some bad positions.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Julianna Pena has weak offensive wrestling. All of her takedowns come from trips or throws. This means that Pena needs to clinch with Shevchenko in order to secure takedowns. Shevchenko is very strong in the clinch because she has a Muay Thai base. Shevchenko is also very good at circling away from her opponent’s and countering them as they try to close the distance. Pena rushes into her opponent’s range with her chin exposed, which will mean Shevchenko should be able to land significant damage with her counter strikes.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Valentina Shevchenko has excellent cardio. She also grew up and lived in the high altitude climate of Peru. Julianna Pena is training at sea level in Chicago for this fight. Pena might not be fully prepared for the high altitude of Denver.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Julianna Pena does not have an efficient style of fighting. All her techniques are executed with brute strength. This means that she uses up a lot more energy in a fight than Valentina Shevchenko. This means that she could gas out very quickly fighting at high altitude.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Julianna Pena has no experience competing in a 5 round fight. Therefore she doesn’t have any experience pacing herself for 25 minutes. Valentina Shevchenko has previous experience competing in a 5 round fight against Holly Holm. This will give her an advantage in this fight.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][/ultimate_icon_list]Risk Factors...[mpc_divider align=”left” lines_color=”#ea5e50″ lines_weight=”5″ padding_css=”padding:0px;” margin_divider=”true” margin_css=”margin-bottom:20px;”][ultimate_icon_list icon_size=”18″][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-exclamation-triangle warning” icon_color=”#ea5e50″]Julianna Pena will have a decent sized size advantage over Valentina Shevchenko. Shevchenko is very small for a Bantamweight.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-exclamation-triangle warning” icon_color=”#ea5e50″]Julianna Pena will have a 4 inch reach advantage. This is not that significant of an advantage because Pena doesn’t have technical striking and has no idea how to use this reach.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-exclamation-triangle warning” icon_color=”#ea5e50″]Valentina Shevchenko is a slow starter. It takes her a while to find her range and settle into a rhythm.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-exclamation-triangle warning” icon_color=”#ea5e50″]Valentina Shevchenko has shown flashes of poor fight IQ throughout her career.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-exclamation-triangle warning” icon_color=”#ea5e50″]Valentina Shevchenko has occassionally shown very poor takedown defence. On other occassions it has looked solid. I expect her takedown defence to have significantly improved for this fight because she will know what to expect from Pena and she is going to be improving quickly at the young age of 28.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][/ultimate_icon_list]Our Betting Tip[mpc_divider width=”30″ lines_color=”#679f42″ lines_weight=”5″ padding_divider=”true” padding_css=”padding-bottom:0px;”]Valentina Shevchenko to winStake[mpc_divider width=”30″ lines_color=”#679f42″ lines_weight=”5″ padding_divider=”true” padding_css=”padding-bottom:0px;”]2 Units[2% of your bankroll]Odds[mpc_divider width=”30″ content_padding_divider=”true” lines_color=”#679f42″ lines_weight=”5″ padding_divider=”true” padding_css=”padding-bottom:20px;”]Decimal = 1.91 Moneyline = -110 Fractional = 91/100[mpc_chart preset=”mpc_preset_20″ value=”52″ border_css=”border-radius:10px;” margin_divider=”true” margin_css=”margin-top:30px;margin-bottom:30px;” disable_title=”true” title_font_preset=”mpc_preset_15″ title_font_color=”#555555″ title_font_size=”0″ title_font_line_height=”0″ title_font_transform=”none” title_font_align=”center” disable_description=”true” description_font_preset=”mpc_preset_38″ description_font_color=”#333333″ description_font_size=”0″ description_font_line_height=”0″ description_font_transform=”none” description_font_align=”center” chart_width=”120″ chart_radius=”120″ chart_front_background_type=”gradient” chart_front_background_gradient=”#ff9756||#ea5e50||0;100||54||linear” chart_back_background_color=”#f7f7f7″ disable_icon=”true” icon=”eti eti_gift” icon_color=”#5b5b5b” icon_size=”40″ value_font_preset=”mpc_preset_15″ value_font_color=”#333333″ value_font_size=”36″ value_font_line_height=”1″ value_font_transform=”uppercase” value_text=”52″ value_unit=”%” inner_circle_radius=”60″ inner_circle_background_color=”#ffffff”][/mpc_chart]Implied Probability[mpc_divider width=”30″ lines_color=”#679f42″ lines_weight=”5″ padding_divider=”true” padding_css=”padding-bottom:0px;”] The bookies believe that Valentina Shevchenko has a 52% chance of beating Julianna Pena based on their current odds. [mpc_chart preset=”mpc_preset_20″ value=”65″ border_css=”border-radius:10px;” margin_divider=”true” margin_css=”margin-top:30px;margin-bottom:30px;” disable_title=”true” title_font_preset=”mpc_preset_15″ title_font_color=”#555555″ title_font_size=”0″ title_font_line_height=”0″ title_font_transform=”none” title_font_align=”center” disable_description=”true” description_font_preset=”mpc_preset_38″ description_font_color=”#333333″ description_font_size=”0″ description_font_line_height=”0″ description_font_transform=”none” description_font_align=”center” chart_width=”120″ chart_radius=”120″ chart_front_background_type=”gradient” chart_front_background_gradient=”#b0ff6b||#679f42||0;100||54||linear” chart_back_background_color=”#f7f7f7″ disable_icon=”true” icon=”eti eti_gift” icon_color=”#5b5b5b” icon_size=”40″ value_font_preset=”mpc_preset_15″ value_font_color=”#333333″ value_font_size=”36″ value_font_line_height=”1″ value_font_transform=”uppercase” value_text=”65″ value_unit=”%” inner_circle_radius=”60″ inner_circle_background_color=”#ffffff”][/mpc_chart]Our Probability[mpc_divider width=”30″ lines_color=”#679f42″ lines_weight=”5″ padding_divider=”true” padding_css=”padding-bottom:0px;”] We believe that Valentina Shevchenko has a 65% chance of beating Julianna Pena based on our extensive research and analysis. Betting Tip 2: Nate Marquardt to beat Sam Alvey[mpc_divider align=”left” lines_color=”#679f42″ lines_weight=”5″ padding_css=”padding:0px;” margin_divider=”true” margin_css=”margin-bottom:20px;”] Sam Alvey has proven throughout his career that he has KO power, but he has also shown that he is slow, one dimensional and easy to gameplan for. Nate Marquardt is extremely skilled in every single aspect of MMA and has the experience required to avoid Alvey’s power left hand and win this fight easily. Of course it’s possible that Alvey could win this fight by KO, but Marquardt wins 9 times out of 10 if Alvey fails to get it done inside the distance. Sam Alvey has a puncher’s chance of beating Nate Marquardt and that’s about it. Reasons for placing this bet...[mpc_divider align=”left” lines_color=”#679f42″ lines_weight=”5″ padding_css=”padding:0px;” margin_divider=”true” margin_css=”margin-bottom:20px;”][ultimate_icon_list icon_size=”18″][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Nate Marquardt is from Denver which means that he will have home advantage on his side. Judges in Denver are notoriously biased towards home town fighters, which gives Nate a significant advantage in this fight.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Nate Marquardt lives and trains in Denver, so he’ll be used to the high altitude.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Nate Marquardt is significantly better than Sam Alvey in every single aspect of MMA.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Nate Marquardt has excellent distance control. Alvey is very one dimensional and telegraphs his attacks. Marquardt does a great job of staying out of his opponent’s range. He should be able to avoid Alvey’s powerful left hand.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Sam Alvey is very slow, very one dimensional and very easy to gameplan for. Marquardt just has to avoid the power left hand and he’ll win this fight easily.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Nate Marquardt has excellent reactive takedowns, strong wrestling and he’s very heavy from top position. Alvey has poor takedown defence, weak wrestling and a low level ground game. He also plods forward flat footed, which should make it easy for Marquardt to hit reactive takedowns. Marquardt can win this fight easily if he uses his wrestling to take Alvey down and control him on the ground.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Sam Alvey is not the same fighter since he broke his jaw. He now struggles to let his hands go and he’s a lot more tentative than he used to be.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]This fight is taking place at altitude, which means that Sam Alvey will become significantly less dangerous as the minutes tick by.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Alvey struggles to wear a mouth guard. This leaves him wide open to being KO’d by Marquardt’s heavy hands.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Alvey has fallen in love with the knockout and spends too much time head hunting. This makes him predictable and very easy to outpoint.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][/ultimate_icon_list]Risk Factors...[mpc_divider align=”left” lines_color=”#ea5e50″ lines_weight=”5″ padding_css=”padding:0px;” margin_divider=”true” margin_css=”margin-bottom:20px;”][ultimate_icon_list icon_size=”18″][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-exclamation-triangle warning” icon_color=”#ea5e50″]Sam Alvey has KO power in his left hand.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-exclamation-triangle warning” icon_color=”#ea5e50″]Nate Marquardt is now 37 years old and in the tail end of his career.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][/ultimate_icon_list]Our Betting Tip[mpc_divider width=”30″ lines_color=”#679f42″ lines_weight=”5″ padding_divider=”true” padding_css=”padding-bottom:0px;”]Nate Marquardt to winStake[mpc_divider width=”30″ lines_color=”#679f42″ lines_weight=”5″ padding_divider=”true” padding_css=”padding-bottom:0px;”]3 Units[3% of your bankroll]Odds[mpc_divider width=”30″ content_padding_divider=”true” lines_color=”#679f42″ lines_weight=”5″ padding_divider=”true” padding_css=”padding-bottom:20px;”]Decimal = 2.30 Moneyline = +130 Fractional = 13/10[mpc_chart preset=”mpc_preset_20″ value=”43″ border_css=”border-radius:10px;” margin_divider=”true” margin_css=”margin-top:30px;margin-bottom:30px;” disable_title=”true” title_font_preset=”mpc_preset_15″ title_font_color=”#555555″ title_font_size=”0″ title_font_line_height=”0″ title_font_transform=”none” title_font_align=”center” disable_description=”true” description_font_preset=”mpc_preset_38″ description_font_color=”#333333″ description_font_size=”0″ description_font_line_height=”0″ description_font_transform=”none” description_font_align=”center” chart_width=”120″ chart_radius=”120″ chart_front_background_type=”gradient” chart_front_background_gradient=”#ff9756||#ea5e50||0;100||54||linear” chart_back_background_color=”#f7f7f7″ disable_icon=”true” icon=”eti eti_gift” icon_color=”#5b5b5b” icon_size=”40″ value_font_preset=”mpc_preset_15″ value_font_color=”#333333″ value_font_size=”36″ value_font_line_height=”1″ value_font_transform=”uppercase” value_text=”43″ value_unit=”%” inner_circle_radius=”60″ inner_circle_background_color=”#ffffff”][/mpc_chart]Implied Probability[mpc_divider width=”30″ lines_color=”#679f42″ lines_weight=”5″ padding_divider=”true” padding_css=”padding-bottom:0px;”] The bookies believe that Nate Marquardt has a 43% chance of beating Sam Alvey based on their current odds. [mpc_chart preset=”mpc_preset_20″ value=”70″ border_css=”border-radius:10px;” margin_divider=”true” margin_css=”margin-top:30px;margin-bottom:30px;” disable_title=”true” title_font_preset=”mpc_preset_15″ title_font_color=”#555555″ title_font_size=”0″ title_font_line_height=”0″ title_font_transform=”none” title_font_align=”center” disable_description=”true” description_font_preset=”mpc_preset_38″ description_font_color=”#333333″ description_font_size=”0″ description_font_line_height=”0″ description_font_transform=”none” description_font_align=”center” chart_width=”120″ chart_radius=”120″ chart_front_background_type=”gradient” chart_front_background_gradient=”#b0ff6b||#679f42||0;100||54||linear” chart_back_background_color=”#f7f7f7″ disable_icon=”true” icon=”eti eti_gift” icon_color=”#5b5b5b” icon_size=”40″ value_font_preset=”mpc_preset_15″ value_font_color=”#333333″ value_font_size=”36″ value_font_line_height=”1″ value_font_transform=”uppercase” value_text=”70″ value_unit=”%” inner_circle_radius=”60″ inner_circle_background_color=”#ffffff”][/mpc_chart]Our Probability[mpc_divider width=”30″ lines_color=”#679f42″ lines_weight=”5″ padding_divider=”true” padding_css=”padding-bottom:0px;”] We believe that Nate Marquardt has a 70% chance of beating Sam Alvey based on our extensive research and analysis. Betting Tip 3: Raphael Assuncao to beat Aljamain Sterling[mpc_divider align=”left” lines_color=”#679f42″ lines_weight=”5″ padding_css=”padding:0px;” margin_divider=”true” margin_css=”margin-bottom:20px;”] Aljamain Sterling showed in his last fight against Bryan Caraway that he is very good at being the hammer, but not so good at being the nail. Sterling is strong and athletic, but Assunsao is the more skilled fighter in this matchup. If it stays standing Assuncao should easily be able to outstrike Sterling. If it goes to the ground, Assuncao should be able to use his high level BJJ to neutralize Sterling’s grappling threat. Reasons for placing this bet...[mpc_divider align=”left” lines_color=”#679f42″ lines_weight=”5″ padding_css=”padding:0px;” margin_divider=”true” margin_css=”margin-bottom:20px;”][ultimate_icon_list icon_size=”18″][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Raphael Assuncao is better than Aljamain Sterling in every single aspect of MMA.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Raphael Assuncao has significantly better striking than Aljamain Sterling.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Aljamain Sterling has very low level striking. He telegraphs everything and does not use proper technique.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Raphael Assuncao has excellent takedown defence having defended 77% of all takedowns across 8 fights in the UFC.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Raphael Assuncao does a great job of chopping his opponent’s legs down with nasty leg kicks.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Raphael Assuncao has excellent reactive takedowns.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Raphael Assuncao has high level BJJ having won the PANAM games in BJJ at every single belt level.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Raphael Assuncao does a great job of creating space and scrambling back to his feet when he does get taken down.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][/ultimate_icon_list]Risk Factors...[mpc_divider align=”left” lines_color=”#ea5e50″ lines_weight=”5″ padding_css=”padding:0px;” margin_divider=”true” margin_css=”margin-bottom:20px;”][ultimate_icon_list icon_size=”18″][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-exclamation-triangle warning” icon_color=”#ea5e50″]Aljamain Sterling will have a 3 inch reach advantage.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-exclamation-triangle warning” icon_color=”#ea5e50″]Raphael Assuncao is now 34 years old. Aljamain is only 27 years old making him the younger, fresher fighter.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-exclamation-triangle warning” icon_color=”#ea5e50″]Aljamain Sterling has strong wrestling and he’s very heavy on top.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-exclamation-triangle warning” icon_color=”#ea5e50″]This fight is taking place at high altitude and we never know how a fighter is going to react to competing under these conditions until the fight takes place. It’s possible that Assuncao could react badly to the high altitude and gas out very fast. This could also happen to Aljamain Sterling, who gassed out in his last fight against Bryan Caraway. Out of the two fighters, Assuncao has the better cardio, so I am hoping that the high altitude will not effect him as badly as it will effect Sterling.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][/ultimate_icon_list]Our Betting Tip[mpc_divider width=”30″ lines_color=”#679f42″ lines_weight=”5″ padding_divider=”true” padding_css=”padding-bottom:0px;”]Raphael Assuncao to winStake[mpc_divider width=”30″ lines_color=”#679f42″ lines_weight=”5″ padding_divider=”true” padding_css=”padding-bottom:0px;”]3 Units[3% of your bankroll]Odds[mpc_divider width=”30″ content_padding_divider=”true” lines_color=”#679f42″ lines_weight=”5″ padding_divider=”true” padding_css=”padding-bottom:20px;”]Decimal = 1.74 Moneyline = -135 Fractional = 37/50[mpc_chart preset=”mpc_preset_20″ value=”57″ border_css=”border-radius:10px;” margin_divider=”true” margin_css=”margin-top:30px;margin-bottom:30px;” disable_title=”true” title_font_preset=”mpc_preset_15″ title_font_color=”#555555″ title_font_size=”0″ title_font_line_height=”0″ title_font_transform=”none” title_font_align=”center” disable_description=”true” description_font_preset=”mpc_preset_38″ description_font_color=”#333333″ description_font_size=”0″ description_font_line_height=”0″ description_font_transform=”none” description_font_align=”center” chart_width=”120″ chart_radius=”120″ chart_front_background_type=”gradient” chart_front_background_gradient=”#ff9756||#ea5e50||0;100||54||linear” chart_back_background_color=”#f7f7f7″ disable_icon=”true” icon=”eti eti_gift” icon_color=”#5b5b5b” icon_size=”40″ value_font_preset=”mpc_preset_15″ value_font_color=”#333333″ value_font_size=”36″ value_font_line_height=”1″ value_font_transform=”uppercase” value_text=”57″ value_unit=”%” inner_circle_radius=”60″ inner_circle_background_color=”#ffffff”][/mpc_chart]Implied Probability[mpc_divider width=”30″ lines_color=”#679f42″ lines_weight=”5″ padding_divider=”true” padding_css=”padding-bottom:0px;”] The bookies believe that Raphael Assuncao has a 57% chance of beating Aljamain Sterling based on their current odds. [mpc_chart preset=”mpc_preset_20″ value=”70″ border_css=”border-radius:10px;” margin_divider=”true” margin_css=”margin-top:30px;margin-bottom:30px;” disable_title=”true” title_font_preset=”mpc_preset_15″ title_font_color=”#555555″ title_font_size=”0″ title_font_line_height=”0″ title_font_transform=”none” title_font_align=”center” disable_description=”true” description_font_preset=”mpc_preset_38″ description_font_color=”#333333″ description_font_size=”0″ description_font_line_height=”0″ description_font_transform=”none” description_font_align=”center” chart_width=”120″ chart_radius=”120″ chart_front_background_type=”gradient” chart_front_background_gradient=”#b0ff6b||#679f42||0;100||54||linear” chart_back_background_color=”#f7f7f7″ disable_icon=”true” icon=”eti eti_gift” icon_color=”#5b5b5b” icon_size=”40″ value_font_preset=”mpc_preset_15″ value_font_color=”#333333″ value_font_size=”36″ value_font_line_height=”1″ value_font_transform=”uppercase” value_text=”70″ value_unit=”%” inner_circle_radius=”60″ inner_circle_background_color=”#ffffff”][/mpc_chart]Our Probability[mpc_divider width=”30″ lines_color=”#679f42″ lines_weight=”5″ padding_divider=”true” padding_css=”padding-bottom:0px;”] We believe that Raphael Assuncao has a 70% chance of beating Aljamain Sterling based on our extensive research and analysis. Betting Tip 4: Li Jingliang to beat Bobby Nash[mpc_divider align=”left” lines_color=”#679f42″ lines_weight=”5″ padding_css=”padding:0px;” margin_divider=”true” margin_css=”margin-bottom:20px;”] Bobby Nash is making his UFC debut at UFC on FOX 23 which means he is going to have to try and overcome Octagon jitters against a tough and aggressive opponent in Jingliang Li. Add into the mix the fact that Nash is taking this fight on just 4 weeks notice and will be competing at high altitude for the first time in his career and you start to see the reasons why Li Jingliang is a good bet here. These X Factors make this is a really tough fight for Bobby Nash and he’s also at a disadvantage because he has several flaws in his fighting style that Jingliang should be able to capitalize on. Take a look at a couple of Nash’s recent fights to see what I mean… As you can see, Nash has bad striking defence and sloppy grappling technique. Ji Lingliang also has a lot of holes in his game, but he should be good enough to win this fight. I believe that Li Jingliang is a great bet at the current odds. Reasons for placing this bet...[mpc_divider align=”left” lines_color=”#679f42″ lines_weight=”5″ padding_css=”padding:0px;” margin_divider=”true” margin_css=”margin-bottom:20px;”][ultimate_icon_list icon_size=”18″][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Bobby Nash is taking this fight on just 4 weeks notice.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Bobby Nash is making his UFC debut and fighting at high altitude for the first time ever.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Bobby Nash has poor striking defence and sloppy grappling technique.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Bobby Nash has poor cardio.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Li Jingliang has excellent Boxing.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Li Jingliang has significantly better striking than Bobby Nash.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Li Jingliang is very tough.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Li Jingliang is very aggressive. He’s constantly pushing the pace and coming forward.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Li Jingliang pushes a high pace and lands a high volume of strikes per round.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][/ultimate_icon_list]Risk Factors...[mpc_divider align=”left” lines_color=”#ea5e50″ lines_weight=”5″ padding_css=”padding:0px;” margin_divider=”true” margin_css=”margin-bottom:20px;”][ultimate_icon_list icon_size=”18″][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-exclamation-triangle warning” icon_color=”#ea5e50″]Li Jingliang has never fought at high altitude before.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-exclamation-triangle warning” icon_color=”#ea5e50″]Li Jingliang has bad takedown defence.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][/ultimate_icon_list]Our Betting Tip[mpc_divider width=”30″ lines_color=”#679f42″ lines_weight=”5″ padding_divider=”true” padding_css=”padding-bottom:0px;”]Li Jingliang to winStake[mpc_divider width=”30″ lines_color=”#679f42″ lines_weight=”5″ padding_divider=”true” padding_css=”padding-bottom:0px;”]3.5 Units[3.5% of your bankroll]Odds[mpc_divider width=”30″ content_padding_divider=”true” lines_color=”#679f42″ lines_weight=”5″ padding_divider=”true” padding_css=”padding-bottom:20px;”]Decimal = 1.70 Moneyline = -143 Fractional = 7/10[mpc_chart preset=”mpc_preset_20″ value=”59″ border_css=”border-radius:10px;” margin_divider=”true” margin_css=”margin-top:30px;margin-bottom:30px;” disable_title=”true” title_font_preset=”mpc_preset_15″ title_font_color=”#555555″ title_font_size=”0″ title_font_line_height=”0″ title_font_transform=”none” title_font_align=”center” disable_description=”true” description_font_preset=”mpc_preset_38″ description_font_color=”#333333″ description_font_size=”0″ description_font_line_height=”0″ description_font_transform=”none” description_font_align=”center” chart_width=”120″ chart_radius=”120″ chart_front_background_type=”gradient” chart_front_background_gradient=”#ff9756||#ea5e50||0;100||54||linear” chart_back_background_color=”#f7f7f7″ disable_icon=”true” icon=”eti eti_gift” icon_color=”#5b5b5b” icon_size=”40″ value_font_preset=”mpc_preset_15″ value_font_color=”#333333″ value_font_size=”36″ value_font_line_height=”1″ value_font_transform=”uppercase” value_text=”59″ value_unit=”%” inner_circle_radius=”60″ inner_circle_background_color=”#ffffff”][/mpc_chart]Implied Probability[mpc_divider width=”30″ lines_color=”#679f42″ lines_weight=”5″ padding_divider=”true” padding_css=”padding-bottom:0px;”] The bookies believe that Li Jingliang has a 59% chance of beating Bobby Nash based on their current odds. [mpc_chart preset=”mpc_preset_20″ border_css=”border-radius:10px;” margin_divider=”true” margin_css=”margin-top:30px;margin-bottom:30px;” disable_title=”true” title_font_preset=”mpc_preset_15″ title_font_color=”#555555″ title_font_size=”0″ title_font_line_height=”0″ title_font_transform=”none” title_font_align=”center” disable_description=”true” description_font_preset=”mpc_preset_38″ description_font_color=”#333333″ description_font_size=”0″ description_font_line_height=”0″ description_font_transform=”none” description_font_align=”center” chart_width=”120″ chart_radius=”120″ chart_front_background_type=”gradient” chart_front_background_gradient=”#b0ff6b||#679f42||0;100||54||linear” chart_back_background_color=”#f7f7f7″ disable_icon=”true” icon=”eti eti_gift” icon_color=”#5b5b5b” icon_size=”40″ value_font_preset=”mpc_preset_15″ value_font_color=”#333333″ value_font_size=”36″ value_font_line_height=”1″ value_font_transform=”uppercase” value_text=”80″ value_unit=”%” inner_circle_radius=”60″ inner_circle_background_color=”#ffffff”][/mpc_chart]Our Probability[mpc_divider width=”30″ lines_color=”#679f42″ lines_weight=”5″ padding_divider=”true” padding_css=”padding-bottom:0px;”] We believe that Li Jingliang has an 80% chance of beating Bobby Nash based on our extensive research and analysis. 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