UFC on ESPN+ 13 Betting Tips, Picks and Predictions

We broke even on last week’s prefight bets, which was a relief after a bad start to the night. I’m now working really hard on this card to try and kick the month off with a profit.

The last two events have been really poor for Live Betting with far too many one-sided matchups or quick finishes to be able to make any money. It’s extra annoying because our 14 event winning streak in Live Betting came to an end after we suffered a small loss at UFC 239. This was our first losing event since March, so I am hoping that we can go another 3 months without taking a loss!

Don’t forget that we also have Bellator this Friday night and I will be offering my Live Betting Tips to all Elite Members as usual. Please just remember that liquidity is much lower on Bellator events, so you’ll find that the odds decline fast and are suspended much more frequently than on UFC cards.

Fight Betting Tip Pick
Aspen Ladd vs Germaine De Randamie 2 units on Germaine De Randamie to win at odds of 2.40 | +140 | 7/5 De Randamie to win
Ricky Simon vs Urijah Faber No bet Faber to win
Josh Emmett vs Mirsad Bektic No bet Emmett to win
Karl Roberson vs Wellington Turman No bet Roberson to win
Cezar Ferreira vs Marvin Vettori No bet Ferreira to win
John Allan vs Mike Rodriguez No bet Allan to win
Andre Fili vs Sheymon Moraes No bet Fili to win
Julianna Pena vs Nicco Montano No bet Pena to win
Darren Elkins vs Ryan Hall No bet Elkins to win
Jonathan Martinez vs Pingyuan Liu No bet Martinez to win
Brianna Van Buren vs Livia Renata Souza Waiting to see how odds move Van Buren to win
Benito Lopez vs Vince Morales No bet Morales to win

Aspen Ladd vs Germaine De Randamie Betting Tip and Prediction

I was super close to betting on Germaine De Randamie earlier this week, but a few things about her concerned me, so I decided to pass. The things that concerned me were:

  1. She’s at a very low level on the ground. If Ladd is able to get on top of her just one time with 2 or 3 minutes to work she will likely get a finish.
  2. Germaine De Randamie is now 35 years old and hasn’t fought in 1 year. Father time has to catch up with her eventually.
  3. Germaine De Randamie works full time as a Police Officer in Holland.
  4. De Randamie has excellent takedown defense, but she also makes a lot of mistakes when defending takedowns, such as throwing strikes instead of fighting for underhooks and throwing knees and kicks in the clinch when she should be fighting for underhooks.
  5. What is De Randamie’s motivation like after turning down a defense of her title fight against Cyborg?

All of these concerns are still significant risk factors to this bet, but I feel a lot less worried about them after how bad Aspen Ladd looked at yesterday’s weigh ins.

Remember that fight research is a constant process of foraging for new information that can help us make better betting decisions. Last week we bet on Jorge Masvidal because he looked in the best shape of his career at the weigh ins and also because he told Dan Hardy in an interview that he tightened up the weaknesses that cost him against Maia. Earlier this week I believe a pass on De Randamie based on all the information we had available was the right move, but how can we not bet her after Ladd looked so bad at the weigh ins:

I always say that there are risks with every bet and a bet on Germaine De Randamie certainly carries a good amount of risk, but at underdog odds and with Ladd looking so bad at the weigh ins I now think that the risk is worth the reward.

It’s hard to imagine how a fighter who was struggling to walk and stand up 24 hours ago will be able to beat, De Randamie who many consider to be one of the greatest Female Muay Thai fighters of all time.

If both these girls showed up and performed to their full potential, I do think it’d be close. But with Ladd clearly so impaired during fight week I can’t help but feel that this now becomes a great matchup for De Randamie.

If this fight stays standing, De Randamie should dominate. Aspen Ladd has had a lot of success with her Boxing against lower level opponents who’ve struggled to deal with her high pressure style. Ladd has been able to break many of her past opponents by walking forward and blocking punches with her face. Most girls she has fought have struggled to back her up, but she cannot do this against De Randamie. De Randamie hits like a man, and I mean that with the greatest of respect. It’s a compliment. De Randamie does not move and strike like other girls in the division. Ladd is at constant risk of being knocked out while this fight is standing. De Randamie is, in my opinion, the greatest striker to ever compete in Women’s MMA. She’s better standing that Amanda Nunes.

On the ground Aspen Ladd obviously has a huge advantage, but she won’t find it that easy to get De Randamie down. Ladd doesn’t have the best offensive wrestling and De Randamie has excellent fundamental takedown defense.

Unfortunately, De Randamie is one of those fighters that despite having excellent takedown defense, chooses to take gambles when defending takedowns and puts herself at risk of being taken down. Some of these gambles include throwing strikes when she should be fighting for underhooks, allowing her opponent to control her body and also choosing to defend takedowns with overhooks instead of strong underhooks. These mistakes could get her into trouble against Aspen Ladd, but that’s why they call it gambling!

Both these girls like to spend a lot of time in the clinch. Aspen Ladd doesn’t have very good offensive wrestling, so she uses the clinch to hunt for takedowns. De Randamie has a base in Muay Thai so naturally she feels comfortable fighting in the clinch position. If this fight stays in the clinch, De Randamie should have a big advantage. She will be the fighter competing with her back against the cage for the majority of the fight but remember that this is now a 50 / 50 position in MMA and the fighter doing the most damage in the clinch is the fighter who wins that position. De Randamie is able to land nice short elbows and hard knees in this position. There’s not much that Ladd can do to hurt her here.

It’s also worth noting that Germaine De Randamie appears to have a decent size advantage over Aspen Ladd, which should help her defend takedowns in the clinch against the cage:

A bet on De Randamie certainly carries a big element of risk because of the mistakes De Randamie makes when defending takedowns and because of how dangerous Ladd is on the ground. Having said this I don’t see how Ladd is going to be able to perform to her full potential after looking so bad at the weigh ins yesterday. I don’t think I’ve ever seen a fighter look that bad and it’s hard to see how she’ll bounce back from that 24 hours later to beat one of the greatest Female Muay Thai Fighters of all time. It’s possible that Ladd catches a kick early, winds up in top position and gets a finish, but the longer this fight goes on the better it gets for De Randamie.

This is a risky bet, but you have to pull the trigger on someone like De Randamie when her opponent looks that bad weighing in. This has now become a no brainer bet for me. We have to take it.

Reasons for betting on Germaine De Randamie

  • Aspen Ladd looked terrible at the weigh ins yesterday. She was shaking and struggling to stand up. In 10 years of watching the sport, I don’t think I’ve ever seen a fighter look this bad at a UFC weigh in.
  • Aspen Ladd has really low level striking.
  • Aspen Ladd has very poor striking defense.
  • Germaine De Randamie has a huge advantage over Ladd when it comes to striking.
  • Germaine De Randamie is one of the greatest female Muay Thai fighters of all time.
  • Germaine De Randamie has excellent cardio.
  • Germaine De Randamie can fight at a high pace for 5 rounds no problem.
  • Germaine De Randamie has an excellent chin.
  • Germaine De Randamie has good fundamental takedown defense.
  • Aspen Ladd does not have very good offensive wrestling.
  • Germaine De Randamie has a size and physicality advantage over Ladd.
  • It’s unlikely that Aspen Ladd will be able to perform to her best after looking so bad at the weigh ins yesterday.

Risk Factors with betting on Germaine De Randamie

  • Germaine De Randamie hasn’t fought in around a year.
  • Germaine De Randamie is now 35 years old and she’s had almost 100 Pro Kickboxing, Muay Thai and MMA fights. Father time has to catchup with her eventually.
  • Germaine De Randamie works full time as a Police Officer in Holland.
  • Germaine De Randamie makes a lot of rookie mistakes when defending takedowns such as going to the overhooks instead of underhooks, throwing strikes instread of fighting for underhooks and allowing her opponent to control her body in the clinch.
  • Germaine De Randamie is at a very low level on the ground. If Ladd gets her down, she’ll be in BIG trouble.
  • Aspen Ladd is very tough and historically has had good cardio. Who knows how her cardio will look after the brutal weight cut though.

My Betting Tip

Germaine De Randamie to win

Recommended Stake

2 Units

[1% of your bankroll]

Odds

Decimal = 2.40
Moneyline = +140
Fractional = 7/5

42%

Implied Probability

The bookies believe that Germaine De Randamie has a 42% chance of beating Aspen Ladd based on their current odds.

60%

Our Probability

I believe that Germaine De Randamie has a 60% chance of beating Aspen Ladd based on my extensive research and analysis.

Allsopp
I'm a Professional Gambler from the UK. I specialize in betting on MMA. I've got 1 kid, a Shih Tzu and I've been making money from gambling for around 8 years now.

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