UFC on ESPN 3 Prop Bets

Prop Bet Disclaimer

  1. Prop Bets are extremely risky. You are not guaranteed to make a profit long term with these kinds of bets.
  2. You should only bet small amounts of money on these Prop Bets because they are very risky. Do not commit a large % of your bankroll to these kinds of bets.
  3. Prop Bets should only be placed for fun if you like to gamble and place bets on every fight.
  4. I have not been tracking profit and loss on these bets for very long therefore I do not know if they are profitable long term.
  5. The variance and volatility with Prop Bets is extreme. You can easily lose every single bet on a card and go on huge losing streaks.
  6. The odds differ from website to website dramatically.
  7. The odds can change extremely quickly on Props. This means the odds you find on your betting website might be significantly worse than what is listed in this article.
  8. Liquidity on Prop Bets is very low. This means that the maxbet limits on betting websites will be very low.
  9. The odds for Prop Bets get released very late therefore this article may not be updated with Prop Bets until close to the time that fights take place.
  10. Not all of these Prop Bets will be available on every Betting website. You need to shop around to find a Betting website which offers them.

Dislike / Like / Love Rating System

Gambling is a form of entertainment and there’s nothing wrong with this. There are some people who like to bet on every UFC fight to make watching fights more interesting. My Prop Bets are for these kinds of people. These are high risk bets and the majority of them will lose. They are not guaranteed to make a profit long term.

In this post I will try to find you a decent bet for almost every fight taking place on this card. I will rate them in 3 categories depending on how much value I feel there is on each bet:

Dislike: These are bets that I don’t feel have any value. I would not recommend tailing them.

Like: These are bets that I feel have a little bit of value.

Love: These are Prop Bets that I like a lot and I would actually consider placing them myself. It doesn’t mean that a high % of them will win, but it does mean that the risk to reward ratio is very good.

My Philosophy on Prop Bets

Prop Bets are attractive because the odds tend to be a lot better than just betting on a fighter to win or lose. Unfortunately, they are not a sustainable long term way to make money because the liquidity and max bet limits on them is very low.

The variance on Prop Bets is also extremely high. This means that a very large % of Prop Bets will lose. For this reason I prefer to embrace Prop Bets by only focusing on high risk / high reward bets. This means that I will often recommend locking in crazy bets that may not make that much sense on the surface, but remember that the majority of Prop Bets will lose anyway, so the goal should be to win big when you place them.

I also recommend sticking to level stakes for Prop Bets and avoid using Compound Interest. In order for Compound Interest to be effective, you need to maintain a high win rate and it is almost impossible to maintain a high win rate on Props for any lengthy period of time because there are so many variables in how a fight could play out. For this reason I recommend sticking to level stakes for these Props and keeping things small.

For example… If you want to bet $100 on Props for a card, bet $10 on each Prop and stick to that number. Do not using Compound Interest to grow this amount of money because long losing streaks will wipeout your gains and kill Compounded growth.

I can not stress enough that these are high risk bets with a very low win rate. The vast majority of them will lose. I do not know if they will make a long term profit. Please only tail them for fun.

Fight Prop Bet Like / Dislike / Love
Francis Ngannou vs Junior Dos Santos Junior Dos Santos to win by decision at odds of 8.00 | +700 | 7/1 Like
Joseph Benavidez vs Jussier Formiga Jussier Formiga to win by decision at odds of 3.25 | +225 | 9/4 Dislike
Anthony Rocco Martin vs Demian Maia Demian Maia to win by decision at odds of 3.80 | +280 | 14/5 Like
Drew Dober vs Polo Reyes Polo Reyes to win by KO or TKO at odds of 8.35 | +735 | 147/20 Love
Roosevelt Roberts vs Vinc Pichel Vinc Pichel to win by KO or TKO at odds of 12.50 | +1150 | 23/2 Love
Alonzo Menifield vs Paul Craig Alonzo Menifield to win in round 2 at odds of 5.75 | +475 | 19/4 Dislike
Journey Newson vs Ricardo Ramos Ricardo Ramos to win by KO or TKO at odds of 6.50 | +550 | 11/2 Love
Eryk Anders vs Vinicius Moreira Eryk Anders to win in round 2 at odds of 5.50 | +450 | 9/2 Dislike
Dan Moret vs Jared Gordon Dan Moret to win by KO or TKO at odds of 12.50 | +1150 | 23/2 Love
Amanda Ribas vs Emily Whitmire Amanda Ribas to win by KO or TKO at odds of 9.00 | +800 | 8/1 Like
Junior Albini vs Maurice Greene Junior Albini to win by decision at odds of 5.25 | +425 | 17/4 Like
I'm a Professional Gambler from the UK. I specialize in betting on MMA. I've got 1 kid, a Shih Tzu and I've been making money from gambling for around 8 years now.

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