I only have 1 betting pick for WSOF 23, but it should be an easy winner. I also recommend that you place a bet on Justin Gaethje vs Luis Palomino to not go the distance. I’m not going to make this an official betting tip because 5 Dimes are the only betting website in the world offering this bet and the limits are very low…
5 Dimes would only let me bet $80 on Gaethje vs Palomino to not go the distance, so I don’t feel it’s ethical for me to include it as an official bet. As a result… Win or lose… I won’t be adding it to my record.
If you have an account at 5 Dimes I strongly recommend that you bet as much as you can on Gaethje vs Palomino to not go the distance. I feel super confident in this bet because it’s a 5 round fight and Gaethje has only fought to a decision twice in his 14 fight career. It’s also worth noting that 5 out of Palomino’s last 7 fights have all ended inside the distance. You only have to go back and watch Gaethje and Palomino’s first fight to see that there’s a very slim chance that this fight will go the distance. Be sure to lock in your bet as soon as possible because I expect the odds to crash shortly after I publish this article.
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DAVID BRANCH vs TEDDY HOLDER BETTING TIP
News stories about unsanctioned MMA events in California surfaced last month when a video from an XFC event went viral. The video can be seen below and it features a regular looking woman being brutally knocked out by a fighter that clearly trains in MMA.
These unsanctioned MMA events are often packed full of mismatches where skilled fighters take on unskilled opponents in what often leads to brutal, one sided beat downs. Teddy Holder has competed in events like this for the majority of his career and his impressive 9-1 record is padded by wins over local tough guys in fights that can only be considered as glorified bar room brawls.
Holder has only fought 2 guys in his entire 10 fight career that have a positive MMA record and one of those guys was Thiago Silva. The records of Holder’s opponents at the time he fought them were… 2-3, 0-2, 0-3, 1-1, 2-1, 2-2, 18-20, 0-0 and 10-5.
I’m not trying to take anything away from Holder’s victory over Thiago Silva, but Silva had Holder badly hurt in that fight and he got cocky and ended up getting dropped by a big counter. Holder did a great job of hanging in there and picking up the win, but I can’t help but feel that Silva beat himself.
Teddy Holder starts every fight very aggressively with a kill or be killed attitude and he always looks to brawl. This will not work against David Branch, because Branch has solid technical striking and extremely good striking defence. David Branch is one of the few guys in the last few years to go the distance with Anthony Johnson and that should tell you all you need to know about his ability to take a punch.
David Branch is a more technical striker, who throws a much wider range of strikes. He should be able to avoid Holder’s telegraphed power strikes, whilst picking him apart from the outside.
David Branch is a high level Brazilian Jiu Jitsu Black Belt under Renzo Gracie and Holder is in big trouble if this fight goes to the ground. Branch is excellent at maintaining dominant positions and transitioning to submissions and I believe he’ll easily win this fight by submission if he can get Teddy Holder to the ground.
I also believe that cardio will play a huge factor in this fight because Holder loads up on his strikes and throws punches with raw aggression. This is a 5 round title fight and he will almost definitely gas out because of the amount of energy it takes to sustain his style of striking. All 10 of Holder’s MMA fights have ended in the 1st round and I don’t believe he’ll be able to last longer than 3 rounds against Branch.
Holder’s only path to victory is a knockout and I feel that this is an unlikely outcome because Branch has excellent striking defence and he’s a master of controlling the distance. Branch should be able to stay on the outside and pick Holder apart. Eventually I expect Holder to gas out and from there Branch should easily be able to take him down and lock in a submission. David Branch has always demonstrated excellent fight IQ and he should be able to use his experience to pickup another easy win over Holder.
MY BETTING TIP:3.5 Units [3.5% of your bankroll] on David Branch to win at odds of 1.30 | -331 | 1/3
