I’ve got 3 betting picks for Bellator 142 Dynamite – McGeary vs Ortiz and I will honestly be amazed if we don’t hit a clean sweep and go 3-0 on this event. Squash matches are nothing new to Bellator, but I feel like they’ve taken things to a new level in their Light Heavyweight tournament by matching up highly skilled fighters against guys who don’t stand much of a chance of keeping things competitive. I feel really confident that we’re going to make some good money on this event…
LINTON VASSELL vs MUHAMMED “KING MO” LAWAL BETTING TIP
Linton Vassell and King Mo are two grapplers who both look visibly uncomfortable standing up. They also both lack knockout power and I believe they’ll both be looking to take this fight to the ground as soon as possible.
Linton Vassell has picked up a few submission wins in his last few fights, but those submission wins have been more down to the fact that his opponent’s lacked the skills to defend submissions, as opposed to Vassell’s ability to put people away on the ground. King Mo doesn’t have high level Jiu Jitsu, but he does have strong wrestling and he’s skilled enough to hang with Vassell on the ground without getting caught in a crazy submission.
This match up has got an extra little spice to it because King Mo trains at American Top Team and Linton Vassell trains at the Blackzilians, but I still expect this fight to play out on the ground and ultimately result in a battle for control that goes the distance.
King Mo’s last 7 fights have all lasted longer than 1.5 rounds and 4 out of Vassell’s last 5 fights have lasted longer than 1.5 rounds. Both these guys lack finishing power and I believe this fight is nailed on to go the distance which makes a bet on the over 1.5 rounds an absolute steal.
MY BETTING TIP: 2 Units [2% of your bankroll] on this fight to last longer than 1.5 rounds at odds of 1.50 | -200 | 1/2
FRANCIS CARMONT vs ROY BOUGHTON BETTING TIP
Francis Carmont dominated the first two rounds of his last fight against Guilherme Viana. He then showed poor fight IQ by almost throwing the fight away in the 3rd round. This performance may have cast a shadow over Carmont’s reliability, but it has also given us the opportunity to bet him at 1.33 | -300 against Roy Boughton, when realistically Carmont should be far closer to a 1.14 | -700 favourite.
Roy Boughton is stepping up on just 10 days notice to fight Francis Carmont, who is undoubtedly the toughest fighter he has ever faced. Boughton’s strategy in all of his fights is very simple. He will throw wild unorthodox strikes in an attempt to setup his takedowns. He then looks to move into a dominant position and grind out wins by beating up his opponent’s with ground and pound. Boughton doesn’t like to spend that much time striking and he’ll frequently initiate the clinch or pull guard if he can’t get his opponent to the ground. Here are some of Boughton’s last few fights…
As you can see in each of those videos, Boughton doesn’t bring much to the table that would cause Carmont a problem. He may look good from top position, but Carmont has excellent takedown defence having defended 73% of all takedowns across 9 fights in the UFC. This statistic is all the more impressive when you take into account the fact that Carmont has fought strong grapplers such as CB Dollaway and Ronaldo “Jacare” Souza.
If Carmont does get taken down, I expect him to be able to transition to a dominant position and keep the fight on his terms.
If this fight stays standing, Boughton will get destroyed because I don’t see him being able to cope with Carmont’s hard jabs or brutal body and leg kicks.
I believe Carmont will win this fight easily by knockout or TKO. This is a huge squash match and I can’t believe the bookies are offering this much value in the odds when Boughton is stepping up to take this fight on just 10 days notice.
This should be easy money…
MY BETTING TIP: 5 Units [5% of your bankroll] on Francis Carmont to win at odds of 1.33 | -300 | 1/3
BELLATOR 142 DYNAMITE PICKS
|Liam McGeary||vs||Tito Ortiz||McGeary to win|
|Josh Thomson||vs||Mike Bronzoulis||Thomson to win|
|Linton Vassell||vs||Muhammed “King Mo” Lawal||King Mo to win|
|Emanuel Newton||vs||Phil Davis||Davis to win|
|Francis Carmont||vs||Roy Boughton||Carmont to win|
|Carlos Eduardo Rocha||vs||James Terry||Rocha to win|