VIP Betting Tips & Picks for UFC 196 – Diaz vs McGregor

UFC 196 isn’t a very good event for betting because it features a lot of fights that could go either way. No matter how much footage you watch and no matter how much research you do, it’s impossible to feel confident in the outcome of these kinds of fights because there is no way to tell which fighter’s style will be the most effective. For example… There’s no way of feeling totally confident in either Holly Holm or Miesha Tate. On one hand I could see Miesha powering through Holm’s weak punches, closing the distance and turning this into a dogfight against the cage. I could also see Tate landing big on Holm and rocking her. There’s also a chance that Holly could gas out towards the later stage of the fight because the amount of footwork she utilizes requires a lot of energy to keep up. From there I could see Miesha landing takedowns and having success with her more powerful strikes. However… I can also see Holly staying on the outside and picking Miesha apart. Miesha Tate has really bad striking defence, so it’s possible that Holly just lights her up from the outside like she did to Ronda. The truth is, we don’t know who will win fights like this, but that doesn’t mean we can’t use our knowledge of the fighters to make a lot of money… I fully research every MMA fight and I can use this knowledge to make a killing in Live Betting. Sometimes, like in the Holm vs Tate fight, there’s just no way of knowing who will win before the fight, but that doesn’t mean that we can’t use my knowledge and research to make money. Most of the time, I only need to see the first few minutes of a fight to be able to determine who will win. My research often helps me gain a good understanding of how a fight will play out if certain scenarios start to unfold… For example… If Miesha is getting lit up everytime she tries to close the distance, Holly is probably a good live bet. But if Miesha is having success landing power strikes and tieing Holm up against the cage, Miesha is probably going to be a good live bet. There are a lot of fights like this at UFC 196, where we should be able to determine who will win based on how the first few minutes play out. As a result, I urge you to join us in our Live Betting Tips Chatroom, where I will be posting Live Betting Tips throughout this event. [divider style=”solid” top=”20″ bottom=”20″][private]

Conor McGregor vs Nate Diaz Betting Tip Prediction

If you’ve done any kind of research on this fight you will understand the reasons why we’re betting big on Conor McGregor to beat Nate Diaz. I don’t want to say that this is an easy fight for Conor, but something totally crazy would have to happen in order for him to lose. Nate’s biggest weakness is that he hasn’t evolved with the sport of MMA. He had his first UFC fight back in 2007 and he hasn’t improved that much since then. Nate’s style of fighting is predictable and easy to work out. MMA has changed a lot since Nate’s style of fighting was effective and he’s not going to be a difficult opponent for the next generation of MMA fighter like Conor McGregor. Diaz’s biggest strength is his Boxing, but his striking is only dangerous against opponent’s who stand directly in front of him. Diaz lacks the speed or footwork to cut angles and pressure his opponent’s, so his striking becomes significantly less effective against opponents who can control the range and use a lot of movement. McGregor is a master of controlling range and also a master of movement. He’s not going to stand in front of Diaz and eat 4-5 punch combos like Michael Johnson or Gray Maynard did. Conor will leap in and out of Diaz’s range and land significant strikes before Diaz has a chance to react. Nate Diaz has a great chin, but his style of fighting leaves him wide open to getting knocked out. If you go and watch any of his fights you’ll see that his striking defence is very poor and he relies on his chin too much. Don’t get me wrong, he’s great at using subtle movements to roll with the punches, but Conor throws punches with such speed that Nate won’t have time to see them coming. This means that he won’t have the reaction time to use subtle head movements to slip out of the way. I don’t care how good your chin is, it’s not going to be good enough to absorb clean punches to the chin off Conor and I believe that Nate’s poor striking defence will cost him in this fight. Nate’s poor defence makes him a sitting duck against a fast, accurate, power striker like Conor McGregor. Nate fights with his hands low and his chin up high, which is absolute suicide against the hard hitting Irishman. Nate Diaz obviously has a huge advantage on the ground, but he lacks the offensive wrestling to take his opponent’s down. This is backed up by the fact that he has only completed 30% of all takedown attempts across 26 fights in the UFC. It’s also worth noting that Conor has a small compact frame for the Welterweight division, which means his core will be much stronger in this new weight class. When Conor fought Mendes at UFC 189, it was easy for Mendes to take him down because Conor’s body was long, lean and weak for the Featherweight division. At Welterweight, his body is muscular and strong, which will give him a much stronger base to defend takedowns and explode back to his feet if he does get taken down. I don’t believe this fight will go to the ground, but if it does, I do believe Conor will be able to use his strength and explosiveness to scramble back to his feet quickly. Nate Diaz is primarily a striker and the majority of his fights take place standing up. Conor McGregor is also a striker and he will be doing everything in his power to keep this fight standing. In a straight striker vs striker matchup, Nate Diaz is bringing a Knife to a gunfight and I expect Conor to use his superior speed, power, accuracy and technique to put on a striking clinic. A big factor to take into consideration in this matchup is that both Diaz and McGregor are Southpaws. This gives McGregor a huge advantage over Diaz because Diaz relies on his Southpaw advantage way more than Conor does. This is because Diaz only throws punches. The Southpaw vs Southpaw dynamic of this matchup is significant because Diaz doesn’t throw many kicks and the ones he does throw are not dangerous. This means that Diaz’s Boxing will be a lot less effective than usual because he’s fighting against another Southpaw and he doesn’t have any additional weapons like kicks where he can switch things up and threaten Conor with a variety of different strikes. The Southpaw vs Southpaw dynamic in this matchup is a huge advantage for Conor, because Diaz’s one dimensional style of striking will be considerably less effective against a fellow Southpaw. I believe that the big difference in this fight will be Conor’s kicks. Conor has some of the best kicking technique in the UFC and Nate Diaz showed in his fight against Rafael Dos Anjos that he cannot defend against kicks. After taking this fight on less than 2 weeks notice, it’s also unlikely that Nate will have been able to improve this weakness in his game. Conor McGregor’s advantages in this fight are huge and I hardly give Diaz any chance of winning. I expect Conor to pick him apart and knock him out within the first 3 rounds.
OUR BETTING TIP: 10 Units [10% of your bankroll] on Conor McGregor to win at odds of 1.28 | -357 | 7/25 [divider style=”solid” top=”20″ bottom=”20″]

Brandon Thatch vs Siyar Bahadurzada Betting Tip Prediction

Everybody seems to be betting against Brandon Thatch, but the bookies aren’t stupid… At least when it comes to this fight… I have been hoping that the odds would improve on Thatch since everyone seems to be betting against him, but the bookies have unfortunately done their homework on this fight and they are clearly not willing to offer any additional value on Thatch. The harsh reality, based on past performances, is that Siyar Bahadurzada is not a UFC level fighter. For this reason, I expect Thatch to run through him and add another clip to his highlight reel. Bahadurzada is primarily a striker, but his style is wreckless and this leaves him wide open to getting countered. He is good in the clinch, but his lack of takedown defence leaves him wide open to getting taken down when he gets into this position. The problem with Bahadurzada’s style of striking is that he’s very tentative and flat footed. This makes him a static target for a dynamic striker like Thatch, who utilizes a lot of movement. Siyar’s style of striking is basic, flat footed and predictable and he also gives up the centre of the Octagon. This will enable Thatch to take the centre of the cage and pick Bahadurzada apart with his more diverse range of strikes. Brandon Thatch and Siyar Bahadurzada are primarily strikers, but I believe that this fight could be decided with wrestling. This is because Bahadurzada has terrible takedown defence and a non existent ground game. When Bahadurzada gets taken down, he has no idea how to scramble back to his feet or improve his position. He is like a helpless child on the ground. Thatch was able to take Benson Henderson down relatively easily and he should be able to do the same to Bahadurzada. Thatch fights out of Team Elevation and has world class coaches like Leister Bowling and Elliott Marshall. He’s also going into this fight on a 2 fight losing streak. 3 losses in a row usually means you get cut from the UFC and these guys aren’t stupid. Thatch and his coaches will know that he needs to win this fight to stay in the UFC and the easiest way to do that is to take Bahadurzada down and control him on the ground. Bahadurzada cannot defend takedowns and he has no ground game. There is no way he would be able to submit Thatch or do anything from top position. I hope that the pressure of losing 2 fights in a row forces Thatch to fight smart and take this fight to the ground. If he chooses to use his wrestling, he will DOMINATE this fight. Another big factor to consider in this fight is that Siyar Bahadurzada is coming back after a 2 year lay off. Fighters that come back after being out for this long often fight very tentatively in the early stages of a matchup. This is because they feel uncomfortable in the Octagon and need some time to settle back in. In his prime, Bahadurzada was a tentative, low volume striker, which means it’s likely that he’ll be even more tentative after a 2 year layoff. Thatch is very aggressive and fights at a relentless pace. He is not the kind of guy you want to be fighting after a 2 year layoff, because he won’t give you time to settle back in and become comfortable in the cage. Instead, he’ll be right in your face from the very first second of the fight. I believe that Thatch can fight aggressively and win the first two rounds of this matchup before Bahadurzada has had time to adjust and get back into the rhythm of fighting for the UFC. When you take the time to look at this fight in detail, you start to see that Siyar has almost no path to victory… This is because he fights on the outside and Thatch is an aggressive fighter who does a good job of holding the centre of the Octagon. This means that Siyar can’t win the fight with forward pressure. Siyar also can’t win by outlanding Thatch because he is a low volume striker and Thatch throws a much higher volume of strikes with a much wider variety of strikes. Siyar also can’t win the fight on the ground because he has no takedown defence, no wrestling and no Brazilian Jiu Jitsu. The only way he can win this fight is by KO. Siyar basically has to win this fight inside the distance and I just don’t see it happening. Thatch is simply too tough, too skilled and too aggressive. The final reason why I think Thatch is such a good bet is that he trains at altitude with Team Elevation. This means that his cardio is excellent and he fights at a very high pace. Siyar Bahadurzada has shown really bad cardio throughout his career and I don’t see him being able to keep up with the relentless pace that Thatch sets. I know that a lot of people think Thatch is unreliable and flakey, but those opinions aren’t backed up by cold hard facts. If you do your homework, you’ll see that Thatch is a skilled fighter with an aggressive style of fighting that will cause most guys outside of the top 10 big problems. In order to make money betting on MMA, it’s important that we detach ourselves from popular opinion, because the majority of people are usually wrong when it comes to betting on Sports. If you go back and watch Siyar and Thatch’s last few fights, you will see that Thatch is a great bet. I expect him to win this fight easily.
OUR BETTING TIP: 3.5 Units [3.5% of your bankroll] on Brandon Thatch to win at odds of 1.33 | -303 | 3/10 [divider style=”solid” top=”20″ bottom=”20″]

Amanda Nunes vs Valentina Shevchenko Betting Tip Prediction

The odds are truly baffling on this fight because I personally cap Amanda Nunes at around 1.40 | -250. The fact that her odds have improved to almost 2.00 | +100 is unbelievable. If you have taken the time to properly research this fight, there is nothing you could have seen which would have made you feel that Shevchenko was a good bet. Literally nothing. I’m not saying that she can’t beat Amanda Nunes, but I am saying that Nunes has clear and significant advantages over Shevchenko that make her a really good bet. When it comes to striking, I think these girls are pretty even. Shevchenko has a clear advantage when it comes to speed and technique, but Nunes has the advantage when it comes to power, movement and explosiveness. Shevchenko’s weakness as a striker is that she stands very flat footed. This makes her a static target for Nunes. Shevchenko’s flat footed, static striking stance will also make it hard for her to land on Nunes, because Nunes utilizes a lot of footwork and does not fight within Kick Boxing range. Nunes is either all the way in or all the way out, which means she doesn’t fight in a range where Shevchenko’s striking will be that effective. Amanda Nunes is one of the few Women in the UFC who can strike fear into her opponent’s when she lands a strike. Her power is on another level compared to most female Bantamweights and you see this in the eyes of her opponent’s when she lands a big punch. When Nunes lands on her opponents, they have a look in their eyes which says that they’ve never been hit that hard by a girl before and it almost instantly puts them into a defensive shell and throws them off their game. If this fight stays standing, I expect it to be close, but Shevchenko’s fights never stay standing, because she always chooses to engage in grappling exchanges, even though she has a very low level ground game. When I watch Shevchenko fight, I almost get the impression that she doesn’t like to stand and trade, because whenever she exchanges with her opponent she looks to clinch up and take her opponent down. This is a big weakness in her fighting style because she has weak hips on the ground and poor technique which means she frequently finds herself in 50 / 50 positions. This hasn’t been a problem for her up until now, because she hasn’t faced any opponents with the ground skills to punish her for the weaknesses in her technique. Amanda Nunes is different, because she absolutely has the skills required to punish her for her weaknesses on the ground. If Shevchenko finds herself in a 50 / 50 position with Nunes, she’s going to get mounted and peppered with some of the nastiest ground and pound in the history of Women’s MMA. Shevchenko’s takedown defence is pretty good, but she instinctively chooses to go for takedowns and tie her opponent’s up, which will give Nunes many opportunities to mix it up with her on the ground. Nunes is a beast on the ground. She’s like a prime Tito Ortiz from top position. She has the nastiest ground and pound I’ve ever seen from a female in top position. Shevchenko’s ground game is woeful. She doesn’t have the technique to compete with Nunes or the ability to improve her position or defend herself from the bottom. In her last fight she looked like a beached whale against Sarah Kaufman in the third round. She simply held onto Kaufman from bottom position and hoped that the referee would stand them up. Nunes is a beast on the ground and Shevchenko is totally clueless. I believe there’s a very good chance that Nunes wins this fight with ground and pound. Either that, or Shevchenko will give up her back and get caught in a rear naked choke. Amanda Nunes isn’t a rock solid lock in this fight, but she’s a damn good bet, especially at the current odds. These girls may be quite even when it comes to striking, but they are worlds apart on the ground. I believe there will be a point in this fight where these girls go to the ground and from there it will be all Nunes.
OUR BETTING TIP: 3 Units [3% of your bankroll] on Amanda Nunes to win at odds of 1.69 | -145 | 69/100 [divider style=”solid” top=”20″ bottom=”20″]

Prop Bets for UFC 196 – McGregor vs Diaz

All of these Prop Bets were placed at Paddy Power. You can place most of these bets at 5 Dimes if you cannot open an account with Paddy Power. The odds on Prop Bets vary a lot between different betting websites, so the odds published below may be very different to what you will find on your own betting website of choice. [box type=”error” align=”alignright” ]Some of my VIP members follow my betting tips to invest their money and make big profits. Other members follow my betting tips to make watching MMA more exciting. My Prop Bets are for my VIP Members who want to place bets on every fight, to make watching UFC events more fun. The variance on Prop Bets is very high and you should not bet on them if you are serious about making money. I can’t guarantee that you will make money from placing bets on all of my Prop Bets. Please only bet on these Prop Bets for fun and make sure you keep your bets small.[/box]

Conor McGregor vs Nate Diaz

Conor McGregor to win by KO in round 1 at odds of 2.50 | +150 Conor McGregor to win by KO in round 2 at odds of 4.33 | +333

Holly Holm vs Miesha Tate

Miesha Tate to win by KO at odds of 13.00 | +1200 Miesha Tate to win by decision at odds of 7.00 | +600 Holly Holm to win by decision at odds of 2.80 | +180

Gian Villante vs Ilir Latifi

Gian Villante to win by KO at odds of 5.00 | +400 Ilir Latifi to win by KO at odds of 2.00 | +100

Corey Anderson vs Tom Lawlor

Corey Anderson to win by decision at odds of 1.80 | -120

Amanda Nunes vs Valentina Shevchenko

Amanda Nunes to win by submission at odds of 7.50 | +650 Amanda Nunes to win by KO at odds of 3.50 | +250

Brandon Thatch vs Siyar Bahazurdada

Brandon Thatch to win by KO at odds of 2.40 | +140

Marcelo Guimaraes vs Vitor Miranda

Marcelo Guimaraes to win by decision at odds of 5.00 | +400

Julian Erosa vs Teruto Ishihara

Teruto Ishihara to win by KO in round 1 at odds of 10.00 | +900 Teruto Ishihara to win by KO at odds of 6.00 | +500 Julian Erosa to win by submission at odds of 4.33 | +333 [divider style=”solid” top=”20″ bottom=”20″]

UFC 196 Picks

[box type=”error” align=”alignright”]Please do not bet on all of these picks. Please only place bets on our recommended betting tips. We only post these Picks because we fully research every fight and a lot of our VIP Members want to know who we think will win some of the fights that we don’t recommend betting on.[/box]

Conor McGregor	vs	Nate Diaz	McGregor to win
Holly Holm	vs	Miesha Tate	Tate to win to win
Gian Villante	vs	Ilir Latifi	Latifi to win
Corey Anderson	vs	Tom Lawlor	Anderson to win
Amanda Nunes	vs	Valentina Shevchenko	Nunes to win
Erick Silva	vs	Nordine Taleb	Silva to win
Brandon Thatch	vs	Siyar Bahadurzada	Thatch to win
Marcelo Guimaraes	vs	Vitor Miranda	Guimaraes to win
Chas Skelly	vs	Darren Elkins	Elkins to win
Diego Sanchez	vs	Jim Miller	Miller to win
Jason Saggo	vs	Justin Salas	Saggo to win
Julian Erosa	vs	Teruto Ishihara	Ishihara to win

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