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ANTHONY JOHNSON vs JIMI MANUWA BETTING TIP
Jimi Manuwa has fought a relatively low level of opponent throughout his career and Anthony Johnson is a huge step up in competition for him. Johnson is coming off a loss in a title fight against Daniel Cormier and this match up looks like the UFC are throwing Manuwa to the Wolves whilst trying to help Johnson get his career back on track. I believe that Anthony Johnson is one of the most dangerous fighters in the UFC and from what I have seen in recent performances I don’t feel that Jimi Manuwa is ready for this step up in competition. Manuwa holds an impressive MMA record of 15-1 and he’s 4-1 in the UFC. His wins in the UFC have come against Kyle Kingsbury, Cyrille Diabate, Ryan Jimmo and Jan Blachowicz, with his only career loss coming at the hands of Alexander Gustafsson. I don’t personally rate any of the fighters that Jimi Manuwa has beaten and I haven’t seen anything from him to suggest that he’s capable of competing against the top 5 Light Heavyweights in the world. Jimi Manuwa has been branded as a knockout artist, but he hasn’t won any of his fights in the UFC by knockout. If Anthony Johnson fought Jan Blachowicz, Kyle Kingsbury, Cyrille Diabate and Ryan Jimmo, he would finish them all in the 1st round. Manuwa’s inabilty to finish lack lustre opponents highlights how limited his path to victory is. He basically has to either knock Anthony Johnson out or win a decision by outstriking him. I feel that both of these scenarios are unlikely, because Johnson has excellent striking defence and Manuwa hasn’t shown us anything to suggest he’s capable of dealing with a striker of Johnson’s calibre. There are very few Light Heavyweights in the history of MMA that have been able to cover distance as fast as Johnson. His hands are so fast and accurate that you cannot see his power strikes coming. By the time they land, you’re already badly hurt or in a state of unconsciousness. Manuwa is a good offensive striker, but he’s not that great defensively. In open exchanges he often comes off worse and you’ll often see him try to clinch with his opponent’s to avoid taking damage. Johnson should have no problem using his defensive wrestling to keep Manuwa out of his range whilst he tags him with power strikes. The odds on Johnson to win aren’t great, but I do feel that they reflect the significant advantages that he holds in this fight. This should be a relatively easy win for Johnson.MY BETTING TIP: 5 Units [5% of your bankroll] on Anthony Johnson to win at odds of 1.21 | -476 | 21/100
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PAUL FELDER vs ROSS PEARSON BETTING TIP
When Ross Pearson first started fighting in the UFC, he fought with an aggressive style and a fearless attitude. His trademark style of brawling was entertaining to watch, but it wasn’t the smartest way to fight and it often led to Ross taking a lot of damage. In an effort to tighten up his game, he switched camps from the Rough House gym in the UK, to Alliance MMA in San Diego. Fighters that switch camps from a small gym to a gym with better coaches and training partners often experience an improvement in their skills, but I feel that Ross lost his way and started to go backwards. I feel the old saying; “You can’t teach an old dog new tricks” applies to Ross Pearson, because to me he looks like a fighter who tried to change too much too soon and he became flooded by new techniques that didn’t come naturally to him. Old habits are hard to break and the trademark Alliance MMA point fighting style was a million miles away from the brawling style that Ross built a career on. Ross has tried to take on Alliance MMA’s philosophy of technical striking, but this has often left him looking confused when he faced a more technical opponent. In the past, if Ross fought someone who had better striking, he would just wade in with his aggressive style and mix it up. This could often be effective because forward pressure and aggression can cause your opponent to make mistakes. Since Pearson has started training at Alliance MMA, he has tried to take a more technical approach to fighting, but this has resulted in him becoming very reactive. If you watch his recent fights you’ll notice that he often freezes in the Octagon as he waits to counter his opponent. This strategy has worked out well against against less technical strikers like George Sotiropolous, Diego Sanchez and Sam Stout, but Ross badly struggles as soon as he is forced to fight against someone who is more technically skilled. This became apparent when he fought Al Iaquinta. Ross spent the entire fight chasing shadows around the Octagon until Iaquinta eventually knocked him out in the second round. Ross chalked the loss down to a bad performance, but for me it was clear that his technique was second best and he was simply fighting a better striker. Paul Felder is the worst possible stylistic matchup for Ross Pearson, because he can hang in the pocket and outstrike Pearson, whilst evading Pearson’s power counters with his air-tight striking defence. Felder is the exact kind of fighter I love to bet on, because you know exactly what you’re getting with him. He always shows up and fights to his full potential and if he losses a fight, it’s because his opponent was a better fighter. Ross Pearson is not a better fighter than Paul Felder and his “puncher’s chance” of causing an upset is largely diminished by Felder’s excellent striking defence. Felder lost his last fight to Edson Barboza, but there aren’t many guys in the Lightweight division who could walk Barboza down for 15 minutes and leave the Octagon almost unscathed. The lack of damage Felder took, whilst managing to maintain the centre of the Octagon for the majority of the fight, is a testament to how good his defence really is. Pearson could come into this fight with a couple of different strategies. He could either come out, meet Felder in the middle of the Octagon and look to exchange, or he could use the same gameplan he did against Diego Sanchez and look to turn Felder’s forward pressure against him by counter striking. Either way, I don’t see Pearson beating Paul Felder. If he stands in the pocket and looks to trade, he’s going to get knocked out and if he tries to counter strike he’s going to lose a decision against a more aggressive Felder who will almost definitely land a higher volume of strikes. The odds are short on Felder to win, but in my opinion he’s a very safe bet. Betting 5 units on Felder for a 30% return on our money feels like a great deal. Felder has never even come close to being knocked out in his 12 pro fights and I believe this match up will play out a lot like Pearson’s fight with Iaquinta. We should easily bank 1.5 units of profit from this bet.MY BETTING TIP: 5 Units [5% of your bankroll] on Paul Felder to win at odds of 1.30 | -331 | 3/10
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UFC 191 PICKS
| Demetrious Johnson | vs | John Dodson | Johnson to win |
| Andrei Arlovski | vs | Frank Mir | Arlovski to win |
| Anthony Johnson | vs | Jimi Manuwa | Johnson to win |
| Corey Anderson | vs | Jan Blachowicz | Anderson to win |
| Alex Chambers | vs | Paige VanZant | VanZant to win |
| Paul Felder | vs | Ross Pearson | Felder to win |
| Francisco Rivera | vs | John Lineker | Rivera to win |
| Jessica Andrade | vs | Raquel Pennington | Andrade to win |
| Clay Collard | vs | Tiago Trator | Trator to win |
| Joe Riggs | vs | Ron Stallings | Stallings to win |
| Joaquim Silva | vs | Nazareno Malegarie | Malegarie to win |
