UFC on FOX 17 is the last major MMA event in 2015 and I feel extremely confident that we’re going to end the year with a big profit. We’ve got 5 betting tips for this event and I feel confident that they’re all going to win. Each of our bets for UFC on FOX 17 is a relatively safe bet and there’s no reason why we can’t end the year with a big 5-0 result. 2015 has already been a great year, but I’m looking forward to finishing strong by making a lot of money from our bets on this event.
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Michael Johnson vs Nate Diaz Betting Tip Prediction
When you look at how Michael Johnson and Nate Diaz fight, you could be forgiven for thinking there’s a good chance that one of these guys is going to get knocked out, but all my research actually points to this fight going the distance…
Michael Johnson and Nate Diaz both have great chins, which is backed up by the fact that Diaz has only been finished once with strikes in 27 career fights. Michael Johnson has a slightly more impressive chin because he has NEVER been finished with strikes in 25 career fights. This means that Diaz and Johnson have only lost a combined total of 1 fight due to strikes in a staggering 52 career matchups.
Johnson and Diaz are well known for being exciting strikers, but both guys lack knockout power and tend to beat their opponents with volume as opposed to knockout strikes. This is backed up by the fact that Diaz has only finished 4 of his opponent’s with strikes in 27 career fights, whilst Johnson has only finished 6 of his 25 opponent’s with strikes.
It’s also worth noting that Johnson and Diaz both fight out of the Southpaw stance. When two Southpaw’s face each other, we are often left with very awkward and tentative striking exchanges because the majority of fighters fight out of the Orthodox stance and Southpaw’s aren’t used to fighting against fellow Southpaws. I expect Johnson and Diaz to stand and bang, but their technique won’t be anywhere near as effective against a fellow Southpaw.
I don’t see this fight going to the ground because both guys like to stand and strike and Michael Johnson has strong enough wrestling to keep the fight on his terms. It will be uncomfortable watching this fight because we’ve bet on the over and I expect both these guys to go to war, but when it’s all said and done, I expect this fight to go the distance…
MY BETTING TIP: 3 Units [3% of your bankroll] on this fight to last longer than 2.5 rounds at odds of 1.74 | -135 | 37/50
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Karolina Kowalkiewicz vs Randa Markos Betting Tip Prediction
In order to beat someone like Randa Markos, you need to have the takedown defence and clinch game to shut down her wrestling offense or enough power in your strikes to back her up. Karolina doesn’t have the defensive wrestling to stop Randa from dictating where this fight takes place and she also lacks the power in her hands to hurt Randa standing up. This means that Karolina is going to lose this fight wherever it takes place and she has no clear path to victory unless Randa shows up and significantly underperforms.
Karolina Kowalkiewicz is primarily a kick boxer but she doesn’t have any power in her strikes. Randa has improved her striking a lot since she competed on the Ultimate Fighter and she now possesses good Boxing technique with above average power for a Strawweight. I expect Randa to walk through Karolina’s weak shots and land the more significant strikes.
I expect Randa to look for takedowns early in this matchup, because she should be able to dominate Karolina on the ground. Randa has a significant advantage when it comes to wrestling and Jiu Jitsu and I expect her to take Karolina down relatively easily and grind out a comfortable win by securing dominant positions with her superior wrestling.
Fights tend to be won by the fighter who is more aggressive and Karolina is very easy to “Alpha”, because she likes to fight on the outside and counter strike. Problem is… She doesn’t really have the footwork or power to make the most of this style of fighting and Randa should easily be able to score points by taking the centre of the Octagon and being the more aggressive fighter.
Randa Markos always makes massive improvements from fight to fight and I expect her to look great in this match up now that she is training full time at Tristar. Karolina Kowalkiewicz is a good fighter, but this is a very difficult matchup for her and I expect Randa to win easily.
MY BETTING TIP: 3.5 Units [3.5% of your bankroll] on Randa Markos to win at odds of 1.57 | -174 | 57/100
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Danny Castillo vs Nik Lentz Betting Tip Prediction
Danny Castillo and Nik Lentz are both grinders who lack the power to hurt each other standing up and the conviction to lock in submissions on the ground.
Neither Castillo or Lentz are famous for finishing their opponent’s, as Castillo has only finished 2 opponent’s inside the distance in 13 fights in the UFC. Nik Lentz’s record isn’t anymore impressive having only finished 2 opponent’s inside the distance in 15 fights in the UFC.
It’s also worth noting that 9 out of Castillo’s last 14 fights have gone to a decision, whilst 4 of Lentz’s last 5 have gone the distance.
Castillo and Lentz both have strong enough chins and good enough striking defence to avoid getting knocked out and they also have strong enough submission defence to avoid getting caught in anything on the ground.
This fight should be a back and forth grind fest that cruises towards a decision.
MY BETTING TIP: 3 Units [3% of your bankroll] on on this fight to last longer than 2.5 rounds at odds of 1.50 | -200 | 1/2
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Kamaru Usman vs Leon Edwards Betting Tip Prediction
Kamaru Usman isn’t just a wrestler, he’s a marauding Juggernaut that runs through people like they’re nothing. Usman doesn’t just take people down in a conventional way, he literally ragdolls them like a Pitbull taking out their frustration on a Teddy Bear. Usman’s wrestling reminds me of the kind of wrestling we used to see from vintage George St-Pierre and Rashad Evans, where they would literally shoot in on people from 6ft away, dump them on the ground and destroy them with an unrelenting top game.
Kamaru’s striking is still very green, but he’ll beat any guy who doesn’t have the takedown defence to keep the fight standing and Leon Edwards badly struggled to defend takedowns against a weak wrestler in 33 year old Claudio da Silva just 12 months ago. If he couldn’t keep a fight standing against Silva, there’s no way he’s going to be able to deal with the relentless threat of takedowns that Kamaru Usman brings to the table. It’s possible that Edwards could have improved his takedown defence since his fight against Silva, but it’s extremely unlikely that it will be enough to keep this fight standing.
At just 24 years old, Leon Edwards has plenty of time to develop into a top 10 fighter, but like most fighters from the UK he has a striking base and doesn’t yet possess the grappling skills to neutralize the powerful wrestling of a strong wrestler like Kamaru Usman.
Usman likes to go for a variety of takedowns and his ability to close the distance quickly and secure a full body lock will make it extremely difficult for Edwards to keep this fight standing. This should be an easy fight for Kamaru Usman.
MY BETTING TIP: 3 Units [3% of your bankroll] on Kamaru Usman to win at odds of 1.50 | -200 | 1/2
No leans for the rest of the card today Allsopp?
Where is the Prop Bets?
Randa unable to finish on the ground and terrible right hand heavy on the feet, 2.3 units gone. What is her striking coach thinking, does she even know about countering predictability. She should tie her right hand behind her back for 12 gym sessions. Just like ronda got schooled by a proper boxer, rands got cut up.