Last weekend was our biggest loss in over a year and it hurt bad. I’ve spent the last week reflecting on what happened and now I am very motivated to get us back on track. This is shaping up to be our first losing month in 4 months, but I am now looking forward to the upswing, because we have never made a loss in two consecutive months. This event looks great for betting and so does the whole of February, so I fully expect us to bounce back with some big wins.
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Jimmie Rivera vs Iuri Alcantara Betting Tip Prediction
All the hype in the UFC’s Bantamweight division is currently surrounding Aljamain Sterling and Thomas Almeida, but I believe that Jimmie Rivera is the prospect that everyone should be talking about. At just 26 years old, Rivera already has super high level striking and a compact frame like Chad Mendes that makes it very difficult to take him down and even more difficult to keep him down.
Iuri Alcantara is now 35 years old and absolutely huge for a Bantamweight. This would normally be an advantage, but his tall and muscular frame may prove to be more of a hindrance under the new USADA regulations. We’ve seen a lot of fighters fail to perform to their full potential since the new drug testing programme came into effect and a lack of IVs could have a big impact on Alcantara’s future performances.
This will be Alcantara’s 39th pro MMA fight and at 35 years old, you have to wonder what condition his body is in after a career that has spanned 13 years. The health of a fighter’s body can have a huge impact on how they perform in the Octagon and Alcantara lives in a small town near the Amazon jungle without state of the art facilities that can help him rehabilitate his old, battle worn body. Jimmie Rivera is still only 26 years old, which means his body is still fresh and healthy. It also means that Rivera is 9 years younger than Alcantara, which gives him a big advantage in this fight. This is backed up by the fact that the younger fighter wins around 68% of the time when there is a 9 year age gap in a fight.
I believe that the majority of this contest will take place standing up, which gives Rivera a significant advantage over Alcantara because he is a far better striker than the Brazilian. Alcantara’s style of striking is based on a traditional Muay Thai style, which involves walking his opponents down in a flat footed stance, whilst trying to land something big. You will very rarely see Alcantara throw combos and his low volume style of striking makes him easy to outland. Alcantara’s traditional approach to striking also makes him predictable, particularly for a skilled technical striker like Jimmie Rivera.
Rivera’s style of striking is the complete opposite, because he uses a lot of footwork and movement to setup his high volume style of striking. Fighters who throw a high volume of strikes are often not very powerful, but Rivera is different in that he can land a high volume of strikes with incredible power, accuracy and speed.
One area in which Alcantara will have an advantage in this fight is on the ground. This is a slight concern, but it’s important to remember that he doesn’t have very good top control and Rivera is incredibly difficult to hold down.
It’s also worth noting that Jimmie Rivera will have home advantage on his side. His fight against Alcantara will also be on the main card of UFC on FOX 18, which means there will be a lot of fans in the arena supporting him when his fight takes place. This will help sway the judges in Rivera’s favour if this fight does end up being close.
It’s also worth noting that Alcantara has only fought outside of Brazil 2 times in 11 fights in the UFC. This means that he does not have a great deal of experience competing outside of Brazil, which will make it even more difficult for him to cut weight and fight to his full potential.
I believe that Rivera’s speed and volume will be the difference in this fight. With youth and home advantage on his side, he should be able to beat Alcantara in front of his home town fans. It’s possible that Alcantara could make this fight close with a few takedowns and some top control, but I don’t think it will be enough to outpoint Rivera over 3 rounds.
OUR BETTING TIP: 3 Units [3% of your bankroll] on Jimmie Rivera to win at odds of 1.73 | -137 | 73/100
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Jake Ellenberger vs Tarec Saffiedine Betting Tip Prediction
There was a time when Jake Ellenberger was an aggressive, well rounded fighter with knockout power and strong wrestling, but all that changed back in 2012 when he was brutally knocked out by Martin Kampmann. Since that fight, Ellenberger seems to have lost all his confidence and this lack of confidence now manifests itself in Ellenberger’s new style of fighting which is awkward, tentative and very predictable.
Ellenberger is so tentative, that it’s going to be very hard for him to win a decision against almost any Welterweight in the UFC. He just doesn’t do enough to outpoint his opponent’s on the judge’s scorecards. This means that in order to stand any chance of winning a fight, he’s going to have to finish his opponent inside the distance. This puts Jake in a difficult position against Tarec Saffiedine, because Saffiedine has only been finished once in his 19 fight career.
When a fighter is tentative, it often means that they are either confused by their opponent’s movement or they are scared of committing to a strike and getting countered. As a result, I believe that Tarec Saffiedine’s style of fighting will probably make Ellenberger fight even more tentatively than usual, because Saffiedine is constantly moving, feinting and switching stances. This will make it very difficult for Ellenberger to get comfortable in the Octagon with Saffiedine’s style. Saffiedine also does a great job of firing back when he gets hit, which is only going to make Ellenberger more reluctant to open up.
Tarec Saffiedine is a well rounded fighter with a Black Belt in Karate and a Black Belt in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu. He also has excellent striking defence, a strong chin and solid wrestling. Saffiedine is also incredibly difficult to take down, having successfully defended 83% of all takedown attempts in 11 fights under the ZUFFA banner. It’s also important to remember that Saffiedine is still only 29 years old, which means that he’s currently competing in his prime and improving from fight to fight.
The only criticism I have about Saffiedine’s style of fighting is that he sometimes starts too slow. Luckily for us, that shouldn’t be too much of a factor in this fight, because it’s unlikely that Ellenberger will be active enough to outwork him in the early stages of this contest. It’s also worth noting that Ellenberger’s style of fighting is very basic and predictable and this means that Saffiedine will be able to work him out and find his range a lot faster than he has done against more complicated opponents like Rory MacDonald and Hyun Gyu Lim. This means that we’ll probably see Saffiedine open up and fight a lot more aggressively in the earlier stages of this match up than he has done against his last few opponents, who were a lot more difficult to work out.
Ellenberger is at a big disadvantage standing up, so he’s going to have to try and take Saffiedine down if he wants to win this fight. Saffiedine also does a great job of scrambling back to his feet when he does get taken down and his strong wrestling and high level Brazilian Jiu Jitsu could cause Ellenberger a big problem on the ground.
Tarec Saffiedine has been training at Tristar for this fight and I’m really looking forward to seeing the improvements that he’s made since training under a high level coach like Firas Zahabi. Saffiedine is so technically skilled in all aspects of MMA, that it doesn’t take much for someone like him to go from a mid tier fighter to a serious title contender. Jake Ellenberger is also training at a new gym under Rafael Cordeiro at Kings MMA, but I can’t help but feel that Jake needs to seek the help of a Sports Psychologist to fix his issues as opposed to a new coach and training camp.
I believe that Tarec Saffiedine is a great bet in this fight because he’s better than Ellenberger in every single aspect of MMA. Ellenberger is simply too slow and too tentative to cause Saffiedine a problem. This bet should be an easy winner.
OUR BETTING TIP: 3.5 Units [3.5% of your bankroll] on Tarec Saffiedine to win at odds of 1.54 | -185 | 27/50
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Dustin Ortiz vs Wilson Reis Betting Tip Prediction
Dustin Ortiz is a nightmare opponent for most fighters in the UFC’s Flyweight division because he fights at a high pace with a relentless grinding style. Ortiz is not significantly better than Wilson Reis in any area of MMA, but his high intensity style of fighting should be too much for Reis to handle.
This fight is interesting because this will be the first time in a long time where Ortiz will be a better striker than his opponent. Reis has improved his striking a lot over the last few years, but it’s still very bad, to the point where he gets rocked in almost all of his fights. Dustin Ortiz isn’t known for having knockout power, but there’s always a chance of picking up a win by knockout when you’re facing a guy like Reis who has almost been knocked out by low level fighters like Scott Jorgensen and Joby Sanchez.
Dustin Ortiz is not a good striker, but he’s still a lot better than Reis because Reis is very tentative and has poor striking defence. Reis also throws a very low volume of strikes for a Flyweight and his lack of knockout power should make it easy for Ortiz to win the striking exchanges. I don’t expect Ortiz’s striking to look great in this fight, but I do expect him to easily outpoint the less active Reis.
Both Ortiz and Reis are primarily grapplers, so I expect the majority of this fight to take place on the ground and in the clinch. This will favour Ortiz, who has strong wrestling, great submission defence and very good scrambles. Wilson Reis has high level Brazilian Jiu Jitsu, but he’s not strong in the clinch and has very poor takedown defence. This is backed up by the fact that he has only successfully stuffed 25% of takedown attempts in 5 fights in the UFC. This stat indicates that Ortiz should easily be able to take Reis down and control him on the ground. Ortiz is by far the strongest wrestler that Reis has fought in the UFC.
Wilson Reis’ biggest strength is his Jiu Jitsu, but Ortiz has shown throughout his career that he has excellent submission defence. He has also shown that he is very hard to control on the ground and does a great job of scrambling out of bad positions.
I believe that the difference in this fight will be Ortiz’s cardio, wrestling and his high intensity style of fighting. I don’t believe that Reis will be able to keep up with Ortiz for 3 rounds and I also don’t believe he’ll be able to control Ortiz on the ground for long enough to win rounds.
OUR BETTING TIP: 3.5 Units [3.5% of your bankroll] on Dustin Ortiz to win at odds of 1.52 | -192 | 13/25
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Alex Caceres vs Masio Fullen Betting Tip Prediction
It’s a well-known fact that the majority of fights in the lower weight classes go the distance, so I was a little surprised when I saw that the over 1.5 rounds betting line was being offered on this fight instead of the usual over 2.5 rounds line. What’s even more surprising is how this betting line opened up in the 1.70 | -138 range instead of the usual 1.50 | -200 range. I’d personally cap the over 1.5 rounds bet on this fight at around 1.30 | -303, which means we’re getting a good amount of value in the current odds. As a result, I recommend that you capitalize on this extra value by betting on this fight to last longer than 1.5 rounds.
This is a great bet because Alex Caceres and Masio Fullen are both primarily strikers, who are both durable and both lack knockout power. Their styles also suggest that this fight will last longer than 1.5 rounds because Caceres is very elusive and doesn’t like to engage. Caceres’ style of striking is very similar to point fighting, because he likes to stay on the outside and then move into range and blitz his opponent. This reluctance to engage means there’s not much risk of Caceres getting knocked out because he’s always fighting on the outside and moving backwards. His style also doesn’t threaten his opponent’s that much, because he doesn’t land with enough power to hurt them. This is backed up by the fact that he has only won 2 fights by knockout or TKO in his 19 fight career.
It’s also worth noting that Alex Caceres’ elusive style of fighting and reluctance to engage has meant that 10 out of his last 11 fights have gone over 1.5 rounds.
This is a great bet because both these guys like to keep their fights standing and they both lack the power to hurt each other.
OUR BETTING TIP: 3 Units [3% of your bankroll] on this fight to last longer than 1.5 rounds at odds of 1.72 | -139 | 18/25
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Prop Bets for UFC on FOX 18
All of these Prop Bets were placed at Paddy Power. You can place most of these bets at 5 Dimes if you cannot open an account with Paddy Power. The odds on Prop Bets vary a lot between different betting websites, so the odds published below may be very different to what you will find on your own betting website of choice.
[box type=”error” align=”alignright” ]Some of my VIP members follow my betting tips to invest their money and make big profits. Other members follow my betting tips to make watching MMA more exciting. My Prop Bets are for my VIP Members who want to place bets on every fight, to make watching UFC events more fun. The variance on Prop Bets is very high and you should not bet on them if you are serious about making money. I can’t guarantee that you will make money from placing bets on all of my Prop Bets. Please only bet on these Prop Bets for fun and make sure you keep your bets small.[/box]
Anthony Johnson vs Ryan Bader
Anthony Johnson to win by KO in round 2 at odds of 4.50 | +350
Anthony Johnson to win by decision at odds of 8.00 | +700
Ben Rothwell vs Josh Barnett
Fight goes the distance at odds of 2.75 | +175
Ben Rothwell wins by KO at odds of 3.30 | +230
Jimmie Rivera vs Iuri Alcantara
Jimmie Rivera to win by decision at odds of 2.62 | +162
Jimmie Rivera to win by KO at odds of 4.50 | +350
Jake Ellenberger vs Tarec Saffiedine
Tarec Saffiedine to win by decision at odds of 2.00 | +100
Tarec Saffiedine to win by KO at odds of 7.00 | +600
Tarec Saffiedine to win by KO in round 1 at odds of 11.00 | +1000
Tarec Saffiedine to win by KO in round 2 at odds of 19.00 | +1800
Carlos Diego Ferreira vs Olivier Aubin-Mercier
Carlos Diego Ferreira to win inside the distance at odds of 5.50 | +450
Olivier Aubin-Mercier to win by decision at odds of 2.00 | +100
Dustin Ortiz vs Wilson Reis
Dustin Ortiz to win by decision at odds of 2.10 | +110
Alexander Yakovlev vs George Sullivan
George Sullivan to win by decision at odds of 3.00 | +200
Alex Caceres vs Masio Fullen
Alex Caceres to win by decision at odds of 4.00 | +300
Damon Jackson vs Levan Makashvili
Fight goes the distance at odds of 2.00 | +100
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UFC on FOX 18 Picks
[box type=”error” align=”alignright”]Please do not bet on all of these picks. Please only place bets on our recommended betting tips. We only post these Picks because we fully research every fight and a lot of our VIP Members want to know who we think will win some of the fights that we don’t recommend betting on.[/box]
| Anthony Johnson | vs | Ryan Bader | Johnson to win |
| Ben Rothwell | vs | Josh Barnett | Rothwell to win |
| Jimmie Rivera | vs | Iuri Alcantara | Rivera to win |
| Bryan Barberena | vs | Sage Northcutt | Northcutt to win |
| Jake Ellenberger | vs | Tarec Saffiedine | Saffiedine to win |
| Carlos Diego Ferreira | vs | Olivier Aubin-Mercier | Ferreira to win |
| Kevin Casey | vs | Rafael Natal | Natal to win |
| Dustin Ortiz | vs | Wilson Reis | Ortiz to win |
| Alexander Yakovlev | vs | George Sullivan | Sullivan to win |
| Alex Caceres | vs | Masio Fullen | Caceres to win |
| Damon Jackson | vs | Levan Makashvili | Makashvili to win |
| Felipe Olivieri | vs | Tony Martin | Martin to win |
| Matt Dwyer | vs | Randy Brown | Brown to win |
