2 FIGHT PARLAY ACCUMULATOR | KIICHI KUNIMOTO vs NEIL MAGNY | LEVAN MAKASHVILI vs NIK LENTZ
Every once in a while a fight will come along where I don’t see any way that one of the fighters can lose. Those fights are about as close to free money as you can get and I like to bet big on them, no matter how bad the odds might be. The last time I felt like this was actually last weekend, when I tipped Derek Brunson to beat Ed Herman. Brunson ended up getting the job done in just 36 seconds and I feel just as confident in Magny and Lentz. Putting Lentz and Magny into a parlay pays around 1.65 | -154 | 13/20 and a 65% return on your money is excellent value when you take into account the giant advantages that they have over their opponents. I don’t see any way that Lentz or Magny will lose at UFC Fight Night 60 and here are the reasons why…KIICHI KUNIMOTO vs NEIL MAGNY
I feel uncomfortable watching Kiichi Kunimoto fight because he has really bad striking defence, which makes him really easy to hit. If I was in his corner, I’d forever feel like throwing in the towel, because I don’t know how his style of fighting can be classed as intelligently defending yourself. Neil Magny has a gigantic 9 inch reach advantage over Kunimoto and he has a good range of combos, he throws a diverse range of strikes and he fights very long. Kunimoto got absolutely lit up in his last fight against Richie Walsh and I don’t see any way in which he can protect himself from taking another beating in this fight. Kunimoto is primarily a grappler, but he doesn’t have very good takedowns. Magny definitely has the skills to keep this fight standing and he is a strong enough wrestler to hang with Kunimoto on the ground. Magny isn’t known for his finishing ability, but he has a fast and accurate jab and Kunimoto is wide open to getting punched in the face. At the very least, Magny should cruise to a unanimous decision win and I wouldn’t be at all surprised if Magny managed to finish this fight inside the distance with strikes. Magny to beat Kunimoto is one of the safest bets I’ve seen in a long time and whilst the odds on 1.25 | -400 | 1/4 might not seem that great, he should probably be somewhere closer to 1.08 | -1250 | 2/25.LEVAN MAKASHVILI vs NIK LENTZ
Levan Makashvili is a reasonably well rounded fighter, but he’s taking this fight on just 2 weeks notice and Nik Lentz is simply better than him in every single aspect of Mixed Martial Arts. Lentz is one of those guys training at American Top Team, who has grown at an incredible pace. He used to be a one dimensional, grinding grappler, but he’s since evolved into a very well rounded fighter, who has the skills to cause most top 10 Featherweights a problem. Nik Lentz is a better striker than Makashvili, but if he gets into trouble at any point in this fight, he should be able to take Makashvili down or at the very least grind on him against the cage. Makashvili has said in a couple of interviews this week that his takedown defence is superb and Nik Lentz will be forced to stand and trade with him. This is the kind of stuff that fighters say, to kid themselves into thinking that they have a chance of winning a fight. Nik Lentz was able to take Hacran Dias down at will just 18 months ago and Dias has an inhuman ability to stuff takedowns. If Lentz can take Dias down, you can bet your ass he’ll be able to take Makashvili down. Makashvili is a reasonably good fighter, but Nik Lentz is the worst type of guy to fight on your debut, because he’s going to smother you and put pressure on you for 15 solid minutes. He’s not going to give you the space or time that you need to settle into fighting in the UFC and he’s going to test your cardio and push you harder than anyone has ever pushed you before. Aside from a hail mary knockout or injury, I don’t see any way that Lentz losses this fight. [adrotate group=”113″] MY BETTING TIP: 7.5 Units [7.5% of your bankroll] on Neil Magny and Nik Lentz to win at odds of 1.65 | -154 | 13/20[divider]
DAN KELLY vs PATRICK WALSH
When Dan Kelly fought Luke Zachrich back in October, I said that he was the worst fighter in the UFC and I bet on Zachrich to win. Needless to say, karma caught up with me and Kelly won his fight. As a result, I’m not going to say anything bad about Kelly in this betting tip, but I do believe that he’s going to lose to Patrick Walsh. Patrick Walsh will never be a top 10 fighter, but he has all the skills necessary to cause Dan Kelly big problems. First of all, he’s young and strong which is a big advantage in fights like this. Kelly is now 37 years old, which makes Patrick Walsh 12 years younger. You can see that Kelly’s body is pretty beat up, by the way his body awkwardly lumbers around the cage and by the number of ankle and knee supports that he has to wear. A lifetime competing in high level Judo tournaments have clearly had an effect on Kelly’s aging body and guys like that normally come out second best when they fight young, hungry guys like Patrick Walsh. Dan Kelly’s biggest weakness is his striking defence and he’s extremely easy to hit. Patrick Walsh doesn’t have the best striking, but he hits hard and he’s a very powerful guy. Kelly doesn’t utilize head movement or footwork and he doesn’t do a very good job of using his hands to block punches. Walsh is coming down from Light Heavyweight for this fight and he’s got serious power. If he connects clean on Kelly, he’s going to hurt him and I feel that there’s a very good chance Walsh wins this fight via knockout. Kelly is primarily a grappler with a Judo base, but Patrick Walsh has a strong wrestling base with solid takedown defence. His low centre of gravity and powerful upper body should be enough to stop Kelly being able to take him for a ride and if he can take Kelly down and get top position, he should be able to maintain control quite easily. If Kelly does manage to secure a dominant position on the ground, Walsh should be OK, because he’s a decent submission grappler and holds a Purple Belt in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu. It’s also worth noting that Kelly doesn’t have the best top control and Walsh is a strong guy, so he should be able to pop back up if he gets taken down. Walsh isn’t a very high level fighter, but he has the skills to neutralize Kelly everywhere. If he connects with one of his big power punches, he should be able to put Kelly to sleep, but failing that, he should easily be able to take Kelly down, secure top position and grind out a comfortable decision win. [adrotate group=”40″] MY BETTING TIP: 2.5 Units [2.5% of your bankroll] on Patrick Walsh to win at odds of 1.61 | -164 | 61/100[divider]
