UFC 236 Betting Tips, Picks and Predictions

March turned out to be another great month for us. We banked a total profit of just under 20 units of profit. I’m really proud of these profits because even though we did good in March, we still suffered from a lot of bad luck in our losses on Tim Means, Volkan Oezdemir and Michael Johnson. Those 3 losses were a combined -8 unit swing. I know that losing is apart of this game, but it really does put into perspective the fact that even when we lose, we consistently put our money in very strong positions. I am very excited to now build on these profits and make even more money over the next few months.

After a short break, UFC 236 kicks off another busy run of MMA with 6 consecutive weeks of UFC events, as well as 4 Bellator events, 3 PFL events, and a KSW event all within that 6 weeks stretch. With all these opportunities coming up for us to make money, the future has never looked brighter for us. Thank you so much for your support!

Israel Adesanya vs Kelvin Gastelum Betting Tip and Prediction

Kelvin Gastelum will be Israel Adesanya’s biggest fight of his career, but from a stylistic point of view, it should also be one of his easiest in the UFC so far.

Size matters in MMA. There are weight classes for a reason. In this matchup, we essentially have a big Middleweight fighting a small Welterweight. Adesanya will tower over Gastelum on fight night and boast a massive 9-inch reach advantage and have a 6-inch height advantage. This is a very, very big deal…

Fighters who have a 9-inch reach advantage historically win around 70% of the time, which means that we’re already getting a little bit of value in Adesanya before we even consider how he matches up against Kelvin Gastelum, because his current odds of around 1.50 | -200 | 1/2 equate to an implied probability of 67%.

Kelvin Gastelum is a skilled Southpaw Boxer with fast hands, and a good amount of power, but Adesanya is a high-level Kickboxer who does a great job of fighting long. In order for Gastelum to land anything significant on Adesanya, he’s going to have to close the distance and get into Boxing range, which will be extremely difficult because Adesanya fights very long. This means that he has the skills and technique to land significant strikes on Gastelum from positions where Gastelum cannot counter.

There are levels to striking and Adesanya is simply several levels above Gastelum. He also has the cardio to fight at a high pace for 5 rounds. Adesanya is also one of those guys that gets better as the fight progresses as he gets more comfortable and continues to get a better read on his opponent.

Many people view Gastelum as a strong wrestler, which could be a potential path to victory for him if it were true, but unfortunately, Gastelum is a very low-level wrestler with an equally low-level ground game. I’m not too sure where Gastelum built up his reputation for being a wrestler, but trust me, it’s very unlikely that he will be able to take Adesanya down and even more unlikely that he will be able to hold him down.

I expect the MMA media hype machine to run rampant over this matchup over the next couple of weeks, selling it as a competitive fight that could go either way. While anything can happen in MMA, I can assure you that this is an easy stylistic matchup for Adesanya and as long as he shows up and performs close to his full potential he should dominate. Gastelum only really has a puncher’s chance here. Adesanya should be a much bigger favorite. This is a very solid bet.

Reasons for betting on Israel Adesanya

Belal Muhammad vs Curtis Millender Betting Tip and Prediction

Curtis Millender has the worst takedown defense in the UFC’s Welterweight division. What’s even more concerning is that when you put him on his back, he has no idea how to improve his position or work his way back to his feet. If you take him down just 10 seconds into a fight, he will spend the next 4 minutes and 50 seconds of the round on his back, and there’s not a damn thing he can do about it because he looks confused when on the ground. You’ll often see him looking over to his cornermen for help because he simply does not know what to do.

Fighters as bad as Millender don’t generally ever reach the UFC because they tend to get exposed on the regional circuit, but by some miracle Millender now finds himself competing at the highest level of the sport, which is great news for us because we can finally bet against him.

Belal Muhammad is primarily a striker, but he also has a strong reactive double-leg takedown that we’ve seen him use to try and take his opponents down in almost every round that he has ever spent inside the Octagon. Once in top position, Muhammad has a heavy top game, and he’s also very active with ground and pound which makes it difficult for the referee to stand him up. Muhammad is also able to inflict a significant amount of damage from top position.

Curtis Millender does have a few advantages over Muhammad. Firstly, he’ll hold a significant size and 7-inch reach advantage. Problem is. This advantage is both a blessing and a curse because Millender’s long, skinny frame at 6 ft 2 is one of the reasons why his takedown defense is so bad. He just doesn’t have a strong enough core to create a wide base against the cage when defending takedowns. This enables his opponents to upset his balance easily and put him on his back.

If this fight stays standing Millender will also have a significant advantage. He’s a much more technical striking than Muhammad, and he does a good job of fighting long. Belal Muhammad’s striking defense isn’t the best, and he’ll need to get this fight to the ground in order to win.

The odds on this fight are incredibly inaccurate. Belal Muhammad should be a much bigger favorite. If he fights smart, he should win this fight easily. It’s hard for me to put into words how bad Millender’s takedown defense and ground game is, but trust me, it’s very bad. This is an extremely easy fight for Muhammad if he goes to his wrestling early and often.

Reasons for betting on Belal Muhammad

Nikita Krylov vs Ovince St-Preux Betting Tip and Prediction

The odds have been improving on Ovince St-Preux all week, but in the last few hours, we have seen his odds start to decline on a couple of popular betting websites. This could be a sign that money is starting to come in on him, so now is the time for us to lock in a bet.

Ovince St-Preux is never going to be a safe bet because of his poor cardio and low volume style of fighting, but even with these weaknesses, he should be able to get past Nikita Krylov. His current odds of around 2.00 | +100 | 1/1 give him an Implied Probability of around 50%, which provides us with a good amount of value because I currently give him around a 60% chance of winning this fight. He’s currently a slight underdog, but he should be the favorite.

If this fight stays standing, it should be a simple case of volume vs. power. At this stage in OSP’s career, he is very aware of the fact that he has poor cardio, so he knows that he has to pace himself. As a result, you will only see him land 6 to 10 strikes per round. This is a very low volume of strikes, but each of those 6 to 10 strikes carry the power to KO anyone in the division dead. OSP isn’t trying to outstrike his opponent when he lets his hands and kicks go, he’s trying to land the kill shot. This often means that his opponents will be able to outstrike him by a wide margin, but it also means that OSP is only ever one punch or kick away from changing the course of a fight.

OSP’s low volume of striking isn’t ideal, but it does help him manage his cardio over a 15-minute fight, and his power also does a reasonably good job of putting most of his opponents into a defensive shell. OSP punches and kicks so hard, that his opponents are often reluctant to let their strikes go for fear of eating a big counter. They need to pick their shots carefully and not put themselves in too much danger because OSP has the power to KO anyone dead. For this reason, you will often see OSP’s opponents show him respect and throw a much lower volume of strikes than they usually would.

Nikita Krylov is primarily a striker, but his Kyokushin Karate background means that his entire striking game is centered around his kicks. His recent fight against Fabio Maldonado highlights that his Boxing is not that dangerous at all. This is significant because OSP does a great job of fighting long. Even though he keeps his hands low, it’s still tricky to land head strikes on him because you need to cover an enormous amount of distance to land a power strike to his head. This is an important detail to pay attention to because it will not be easy for Krylov to hurt OSP with kicks without putting himself in extreme danger of eating a big counter.

If this fight stays standing, I do give Krylov the edge because of his volume, but he doesn’t have a big edge. Even if he were to outstrike OSP 2 to 1, it only takes one bomb from OSP to land for him to steal a round with a knockdown or big shot that gets a reaction from the crowd.

There’s no doubt that Krylov has the advantage when it comes to striking, but we’re not betting on OSP because we think he can win a Kickboxing match. We’re betting on him because he has a gigantic advantage over Krylov when it comes to grappling. In fact, OSP and Krylov fought back in 2014, and OSP won the fight by 1st round submission. A lot has changed since then, but OSP still has a huge advantage on the ground.

Ovince St-Preux isn’t the strongest wrestler, but that shouldn’t matter too much because Krylov doesn’t have the best takedown defense either. Luckily for us, OSP does have a very nice deep double leg takedown, and Krylov has been particularly susceptible to being taken down with this technique in the past. OSP does a great job of using his long arms and 80-inch reach to connect his hands around his opponent’s legs or body and taking them down. On the ground, he will have a MASSIVE advantage over Krylov.

Krylov’s takedown defense is not very good at all, and once on the ground, his ground game is at an extremely low level. If this fight goes to the ground, I expect OSP to dominate and that’s why I cap him at 60% and believe he should be the favorite here.

OSP is never going to be a safe bet, but at the current odds, there is definite value. I recommend betting him small.

Reasons for betting on Ovince St-Preux