UFC 236 Betting Tips, Picks and Predictions

March turned out to be another great month for us. We banked a total profit of just under 20 units of profit. I’m really proud of these profits because even though we did good in March, we still suffered from a lot of bad luck in our losses on Tim Means, Volkan Oezdemir and Michael Johnson. Those 3 losses were a combined -8 unit swing. I know that losing is apart of this game, but it really does put into perspective the fact that even when we lose, we consistently put our money in very strong positions. I am very excited to now build on these profits and make even more money over the next few months.

After a short break, UFC 236 kicks off another busy run of MMA with 6 consecutive weeks of UFC events, as well as 4 Bellator events, 3 PFL events, and a KSW event all within that 6 weeks stretch. With all these opportunities coming up for us to make money, the future has never looked brighter for us. Thank you so much for your support!

Fight Betting Tip Pick
Max Holloway vs Dustin Poirier No bet Holloway to win
Israel Adesanya vs Kelvin Gastelum 5 units on Israel Adesanya to win at odds of 1.50 | -200 | 2/5 Adesanya to win
Eryk Anders vs Khalil Rountree No bet Anders to win
Ovince St-Preux vs Nikita Krylov 1 unit on Ovince St-Preux to win at odds of 2.00 | +100 | 1/1 St-Preux to win
Alan Jouban vs Dwight Grant No bet Grant to win
Boston Salmon vs Khalid Taha No bet Taha to win
Alexandre Pantoja vs Wilson Reis No bet Pantoja to win
Andre Soukhamthath vs Montel Jackson No bet Jackson to win
Lauren Mueller vs Poliana Botelho No bet Mueller to win
Max Griffin vs Zelim Imadaev No bet Griffin to win
Jalin Turner vs Matt Frevola No bet Turner to win
Belal Muhammad vs Curtis Millender 3 units on Belal Muhammad to win at odds of 1.81 | -123 | 81/100 Muhammad to win
Brandon Davis vs Randy Costa No bet Davis to win

Israel Adesanya vs Kelvin Gastelum Betting Tip and Prediction

Kelvin Gastelum will be Israel Adesanya’s biggest fight of his career, but from a stylistic point of view, it should also be one of his easiest in the UFC so far.

Size matters in MMA. There are weight classes for a reason. In this matchup, we essentially have a big Middleweight fighting a small Welterweight. Adesanya will tower over Gastelum on fight night and boast a massive 9-inch reach advantage and have a 6-inch height advantage. This is a very, very big deal…

Fighters who have a 9-inch reach advantage historically win around 70% of the time, which means that we’re already getting a little bit of value in Adesanya before we even consider how he matches up against Kelvin Gastelum, because his current odds of around 1.50 | -200 | 1/2 equate to an implied probability of 67%.

Kelvin Gastelum is a skilled Southpaw Boxer with fast hands, and a good amount of power, but Adesanya is a high-level Kickboxer who does a great job of fighting long. In order for Gastelum to land anything significant on Adesanya, he’s going to have to close the distance and get into Boxing range, which will be extremely difficult because Adesanya fights very long. This means that he has the skills and technique to land significant strikes on Gastelum from positions where Gastelum cannot counter.

There are levels to striking and Adesanya is simply several levels above Gastelum. He also has the cardio to fight at a high pace for 5 rounds. Adesanya is also one of those guys that gets better as the fight progresses as he gets more comfortable and continues to get a better read on his opponent.

Many people view Gastelum as a strong wrestler, which could be a potential path to victory for him if it were true, but unfortunately, Gastelum is a very low-level wrestler with an equally low-level ground game. I’m not too sure where Gastelum built up his reputation for being a wrestler, but trust me, it’s very unlikely that he will be able to take Adesanya down and even more unlikely that he will be able to hold him down.

I expect the MMA media hype machine to run rampant over this matchup over the next couple of weeks, selling it as a competitive fight that could go either way. While anything can happen in MMA, I can assure you that this is an easy stylistic matchup for Adesanya and as long as he shows up and performs close to his full potential he should dominate. Gastelum only really has a puncher’s chance here. Adesanya should be a much bigger favorite. This is a very solid bet.

Reasons for betting on Israel Adesanya

  • Israel Adesanya has a massive size advantage over Kelvin Gastelum. He is 6 inches taller with a 9 inch reach advantage.
  • Fighters with a 9 inch reach advantage over their opponent win around 70% of the time.
  • Israel Adesanya does a great job of fighting long.
  • Israel Adesanya’s size advantage enables him to land significant strikes on Gastelum from positions where he cannot be countered.
  • Israel Adesanya has excellent takedown defense. He also does a great job of quickly popping back up to his feet when he does get taken down.
  • Kelvin Gastelum is a low level wrestler with a very average ground game. He doesn’t have the skills required to take Adesanya down and hold him down.
  • Israel Adesanya is a much higher level striker than Kelvin Gastelum.
  • Kelvin Gastelum has an excellent chin, but he tends to get hit a lot. His striking defense isn’t very good.
  • Israel Adesanya throws a very diverse range of strikes.
  • Kelvin Gastelum has to cover a lot of distance and put himself in a lot of danger to land significant strikes on Adesanya. It’s going to be very difficult for him to get inside.
  • Israel Adesanya appears to be making big improvements from fight to fight.
  • Israel Adesanya has a good chin and excellent cardio. He gets better as the fight progresses.

Risk Factors with betting on Israel Adesanya

  • Kelvin Gastelum has an amazing chin.
  • Kelvin Gastelum has excellent cardio. He can fight at a high pace for 25 minutes.
  • Kelvin Gastelum fights out of the Southpaw stance.
  • Kelvin Gastelum has KO power.
  • This is a massive fight for Adesanya. It’s possible that he could underperform under the pressure of fighting for the title. We tend to see a lot more fighters underperform in big fights on big events.
  • Anything can happen in MMA.

My Betting Tip

Israel Adesanya to win

Recommended Stake

5 Units

[5% of your bankroll]

Odds

Decimal = 1.50
Moneyline = -200
Fractional = 2/5

67%

Implied Probability

The bookies believe that Israel Adesanya has a 67% chance of beating Kelvin Gastelum based on their current odds.

80%

Our Probability

I believe that Israel Adesanya has an 80% chance of beating Israel Adesanya based on my extensive research and analysis.

Belal Muhammad vs Curtis Millender Betting Tip and Prediction

Curtis Millender has the worst takedown defense in the UFC’s Welterweight division. What’s even more concerning is that when you put him on his back, he has no idea how to improve his position or work his way back to his feet. If you take him down just 10 seconds into a fight, he will spend the next 4 minutes and 50 seconds of the round on his back, and there’s not a damn thing he can do about it because he looks confused when on the ground. You’ll often see him looking over to his cornermen for help because he simply does not know what to do.

Fighters as bad as Millender don’t generally ever reach the UFC because they tend to get exposed on the regional circuit, but by some miracle Millender now finds himself competing at the highest level of the sport, which is great news for us because we can finally bet against him.

Belal Muhammad is primarily a striker, but he also has a strong reactive double-leg takedown that we’ve seen him use to try and take his opponents down in almost every round that he has ever spent inside the Octagon. Once in top position, Muhammad has a heavy top game, and he’s also very active with ground and pound which makes it difficult for the referee to stand him up. Muhammad is also able to inflict a significant amount of damage from top position.

Curtis Millender does have a few advantages over Muhammad. Firstly, he’ll hold a significant size and 7-inch reach advantage. Problem is. This advantage is both a blessing and a curse because Millender’s long, skinny frame at 6 ft 2 is one of the reasons why his takedown defense is so bad. He just doesn’t have a strong enough core to create a wide base against the cage when defending takedowns. This enables his opponents to upset his balance easily and put him on his back.

If this fight stays standing Millender will also have a significant advantage. He’s a much more technical striking than Muhammad, and he does a good job of fighting long. Belal Muhammad’s striking defense isn’t the best, and he’ll need to get this fight to the ground in order to win.

The odds on this fight are incredibly inaccurate. Belal Muhammad should be a much bigger favorite. If he fights smart, he should win this fight easily. It’s hard for me to put into words how bad Millender’s takedown defense and ground game is, but trust me, it’s very bad. This is an extremely easy fight for Muhammad if he goes to his wrestling early and often.

Reasons for betting on Belal Muhammad

  • Curtis Millender has the worst takedown defense in the UFC’s Welterweight division.
  • Curtis Millender has an extremely low level ground game.
  • Curtis Millender has no idea how to improve his position or work his way back to his feet when he gets taken down.
  • Belal Muhammad has a strong reactive double leg takedown. He should easily be able to take Millender down.
  • Belal Muhammad has a very heavy top game.
  • Belal Muhammad has nasty ground and pound. He is able to inflict a lot of damage from top position.
  • Belal Muhammad stays very active from top position with ground and pound. This makes it difficult for referees to stand him up.
  • Belal Muhammad is extremely tough. He’s the kind of guy that you have to practically kill in order to finish.
  • Belal Muhammad has excellent cardio. He can fight at a high pace for 3 rounds.
  • Belal Muhammad is able to recover very quickly after being hurt badly.
  • Curtis Millender makes a lot of mistakes on the ground that leave him wide open to being caught in a bad position or submitted.
  • Curtis Millender does not appear to be improving his ground game or wrestling at all.

Risk Factors with betting on Belal Muhammad

  • Curtis Millender will have a big size advantage over Belal Muhammad. He will also have a 7 inch reach advantage.
  • Belal Muhammad has bad striking defense. He takes tons of damage in all of his fights and gets rocked frequently.
  • Curtis Millender is a significantly better striker than Belal Muhammad.
  • Curtis Millender has vicious headkicks. This is an attack that Muhammad has been susceptible to throughout his career.
  • This is a big PPV event and fighters tend to underperform more frequently on big events.
  • Anything can happen in MMA.

My Betting Tip

Belal Muhammad to win

Recommended Stake

3 Units

[3% of your bankroll]

Odds

Decimal = 1.81
Moneyline = -123
Fractional = 81/100

55%

Implied Probability

The bookies believe that Belal Muhammad has a 55% chance of beating Curtis Millender based on their current odds.

70%

Our Probability

I believe that Belal Muhammad has a 70% chance of beating Curtis Millender based on my extensive research and analysis.

Nikita Krylov vs Ovince St-Preux Betting Tip and Prediction

The odds have been improving on Ovince St-Preux all week, but in the last few hours, we have seen his odds start to decline on a couple of popular betting websites. This could be a sign that money is starting to come in on him, so now is the time for us to lock in a bet.

Ovince St-Preux is never going to be a safe bet because of his poor cardio and low volume style of fighting, but even with these weaknesses, he should be able to get past Nikita Krylov. His current odds of around 2.00 | +100 | 1/1 give him an Implied Probability of around 50%, which provides us with a good amount of value because I currently give him around a 60% chance of winning this fight. He’s currently a slight underdog, but he should be the favorite.

If this fight stays standing, it should be a simple case of volume vs. power. At this stage in OSP’s career, he is very aware of the fact that he has poor cardio, so he knows that he has to pace himself. As a result, you will only see him land 6 to 10 strikes per round. This is a very low volume of strikes, but each of those 6 to 10 strikes carry the power to KO anyone in the division dead. OSP isn’t trying to outstrike his opponent when he lets his hands and kicks go, he’s trying to land the kill shot. This often means that his opponents will be able to outstrike him by a wide margin, but it also means that OSP is only ever one punch or kick away from changing the course of a fight.

OSP’s low volume of striking isn’t ideal, but it does help him manage his cardio over a 15-minute fight, and his power also does a reasonably good job of putting most of his opponents into a defensive shell. OSP punches and kicks so hard, that his opponents are often reluctant to let their strikes go for fear of eating a big counter. They need to pick their shots carefully and not put themselves in too much danger because OSP has the power to KO anyone dead. For this reason, you will often see OSP’s opponents show him respect and throw a much lower volume of strikes than they usually would.

Nikita Krylov is primarily a striker, but his Kyokushin Karate background means that his entire striking game is centered around his kicks. His recent fight against Fabio Maldonado highlights that his Boxing is not that dangerous at all. This is significant because OSP does a great job of fighting long. Even though he keeps his hands low, it’s still tricky to land head strikes on him because you need to cover an enormous amount of distance to land a power strike to his head. This is an important detail to pay attention to because it will not be easy for Krylov to hurt OSP with kicks without putting himself in extreme danger of eating a big counter.

If this fight stays standing, I do give Krylov the edge because of his volume, but he doesn’t have a big edge. Even if he were to outstrike OSP 2 to 1, it only takes one bomb from OSP to land for him to steal a round with a knockdown or big shot that gets a reaction from the crowd.

There’s no doubt that Krylov has the advantage when it comes to striking, but we’re not betting on OSP because we think he can win a Kickboxing match. We’re betting on him because he has a gigantic advantage over Krylov when it comes to grappling. In fact, OSP and Krylov fought back in 2014, and OSP won the fight by 1st round submission. A lot has changed since then, but OSP still has a huge advantage on the ground.

Ovince St-Preux isn’t the strongest wrestler, but that shouldn’t matter too much because Krylov doesn’t have the best takedown defense either. Luckily for us, OSP does have a very nice deep double leg takedown, and Krylov has been particularly susceptible to being taken down with this technique in the past. OSP does a great job of using his long arms and 80-inch reach to connect his hands around his opponent’s legs or body and taking them down. On the ground, he will have a MASSIVE advantage over Krylov.

Krylov’s takedown defense is not very good at all, and once on the ground, his ground game is at an extremely low level. If this fight goes to the ground, I expect OSP to dominate and that’s why I cap him at 60% and believe he should be the favorite here.

OSP is never going to be a safe bet, but at the current odds, there is definite value. I recommend betting him small.

Reasons for betting on Ovince St-Preux

  • Ovince St-Preux has legit 1 shot KO power in every strike.
  • Nikita Krylov has a Kyokushin Karate background, which means his striking is all centered around his kicks. His Boxing isn’t that good. He isn’t that dangerous with his punches.
  • Ovince St-Preux does a great job of fighting long. It won’t be easy for Krylov to land power strikes to OSP’s head because Krylov’s most dangerous strikes are his kicks and it will be difficult for him to get into a range to land big on OSP.
  • Nikita Krylov has very bad takedown defense.
  • Nikita Krylov has a very low level ground game.
  • Ovince St-Preux has a deep double leg takedown. He uses his long 80 inch reach to connect his hands around his opponents legs or body to drag them to the ground.
  • Ovince St-Preux has a deceptively high level ground game. He has a wide range of submissions in his locker.
  • Ovince St-Preux has a very heavy top game.
  • Ovince St-Preux can inflict significant damage with ground and pound.
  • Ovince St-Preux is a much higher level than Krylov on the ground.
  • Ovince St-Preux always favours position over submission. He never gives up dominant positions chasing long shot submissions.
  • Nikita Krylov has bad fight IQ.
  • Ovince St-Preux has got much better at pacing himself over the last couple of years.

Risk Factors with betting on Ovince St-Preux

  • Ovince St-Preux has bad cardio.
  • Ovince St-Preux manages his poor cardio by fighting with a low volume style. You’ll only see him land 6 to 10 strikes per round.
  • Ovince St-Preux is now 36 years old. He is past his prime and unlikely to make any improvements.
  • Nikita Krylov lands a much higher volume of strikes per round.
  • OSP has been rocked or dropped multiple times over the last few years.
  • Anything can happen in MMA.

My Betting Tip

Ovince St-Preux to win

Recommended Stake

1 Unit

[1% of your bankroll]

Odds

Decimal = 2.00
Moneyline = +100
Fractional = 1/1

50%

Implied Probability

The bookies believe that Ovince St-Preux has a 50% chance of beating Nikita Krylov based on their current odds.

60%

Our Probability

I believe that Ovince St-Preux has a 60% chance of beating Nikita Krylov based on my extensive research and analysis.

Allsopp
I'm a Professional Gambler from the UK. I specialize in betting on MMA. I've got 1 kid, a Shih Tzu and I've been making money from gambling for around 8 years now.

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