UFC on ESPN 2 Betting Tips, Picks and Predictions

2019 continues to be an excellent year for us, as we banked another solid profit last weekend on both prefight and Live Betting.

The future has never looked brighter for us because now, for the first time ever, we can also Live Bet on smaller promotions like Bellator and KSW across multiple different betting websites. This is a game changer because it gives us 20 to 30 more opportunities to make money every year. This Friday we have another Bellator event, and as ever, I’ll be offering my highly profitable Live Betting Tips and alternate fight commentary to all of my Elite Members.

Over the last few months, I’ve also noticed more and more betting websites offering Live Betting on UFC and in particular the number of betting sites offering Live Betting on the early prelim fights is increasing.

We have already made over 20 units of profit in 2019 and with so many events coming up over the next few months, I am confident that this is going to be a massive year for us. Thank you so much for your support. I promise I’ll continue to work hard so that we can always be sure we have our money in strong positions!

Fight Betting Tip Pick
Edson Barboza vs Justin Gaethje No bet Gaethje to win
David Branch vs Jack Hermansson No bet Hermansson to win
Josh Emmett vs Michael Johnson No bet Johnson to win
Karolina Kowalkiewicz vs Michelle Waterson No bet Kowalkiewicz to win
Kennedy Nzechukwu vs Paul Craig No bet Nzechukwu to win
Sheymon Moraes vs Sodiq Yusuff No bet Yusuff to win
Jessica Aguilar vs Marina Rodriguez No bet Rodriguez to win
Desmond Green vs Ross Pearson 1 unit on Ross Pearson to win at odds of 4.50 | +350 | 7/2 Pearson to win
Enrique Barzola vs Kevin Aguilar No bet Aguilar to win
Gerald Meerschaert vs Kevin Holland No bet Holland to win
Casey Kenney vs Ray Borg No bet Borg to win
Maryna Moroz vs Sabina Mazo No bet Moroz to win
Alex Perez vs Mark De La Rosa No bet De La Rosa to win

Desmond Green vs Ross Pearson Betting Tip and Prediction

Desmond Green and Ross Pearson are two fighters who have had a rough run in the UFC over the last few years. Pearson is 1-5 in his last 6 fights:

Desmond Green has also struggled going 1-3 in his last 4 fights:

For the most part, both Pearson and Green’s losses come against a decent level of opponent, but they also highlight that both guys have some pretty huge weaknesses that can be exploited by their opponents.

When we bet on fighters like Ross Pearson, who are clearly past their prime, we are taking on a lot of risk and the foundation for our decision to place bets like this is always going to be because we feel the risk is worth the reward. That’s why we must start out by evaluating the current odds on this fight.

Ross Pearson is currently a massive underdog at odds of around 4.50 | +350 | 7/2, giving him an implied probability of just 22%. This means that the betting sites are only giving him a 22% chance of beating Desmond Green. In contrast, Green’s current odds of around 1.22 | -456 | 11/50, give him an implied probability of 82% meaning that the betting sites believe he has an 82% chance of beating Ross Pearson. I can tell you right now, with absolute certainty that this is crazy. These odds suggest that the betting sites believe Green has virtually no way to lose and if you take an hour out of your day to watch some footage of both guys, you’ll see that this is simply not the case.

I’m not saying that Ross Pearson will win this fight, but if these guys fought 10 times, Pearson would win at least 3 or 4 times, which means there is
a good amount of value in betting him at the current odds.

So how could the betting sites cap the odds so inaccurately on this matchup? Well… Their error shouldn’t come as too much of a surprise to you after we’ve repeatedly punished them over the last few months for making similar errors. In the previous 2 months, we’ve won underdog bets on Cheick Kongo, Jorge Masvidal, Mike Grundy, Diego Sanchez, Saparbek Safarov, Thiago Alves and Andre Fili, all because we were able to identify massive inaccuracies in the odds making. Win or lose I believe we have identified another big mistake with this fight. There’s just no way that Ross Pearson should be this big of an underdog to a guy like Desmond Green.

So how could they have got the odds so wrong?

Well, I’m guessing it’s because Desmond Green is a 3 time NCAA Div 1 qualifier. On paper, his wrestling is super high level, and grappling has always been Pearson’s Achilles heel. But Green rarely uses his wrestling in MMA because he lacks the cardio to grapple hard for 15 minutes. Every time we have ever seen Green use his wrestling, he has gassed BAD and FAST. The stats also back this up…

As you can see in the stats table below, Green has only shot an average of 1 takedown per 15 minutes in his 5 fights in the UFC. All 5 of these fights went to a decision. This means that Desmond Green has only shot 5 takedowns in his UFC career, despite being in the Octagon for a total of 15 rounds:

While we’re talking about stats, it’s also worth pointing out that Ross Pearson has defended 75% of takedowns in his UFC career. This is extremely impressive when you take into consideration the fact that Pearson has had 25 fights in the UFC and consistently competed against some of the best fighters in the world.

We have seen over the years that it’s difficult to take Pearson down and even harder to hold him down. The stats back this up. Pearson does a great job of quickly popping back to his feet when taken down, and with the new judging scoring criteria also penalizing takedowns that don’t achieve anything, this again favors Pearson’s style.

The fact that Pearson is so hard to take down and hold down and the fact that Green rarely ever tries to take his opponents down anyway, makes me feel that it’s very likely that this fight will be contested standing up, and if that’s the case, I expect it to be close.

Desmond Green is an awkward Southpaw that likes to fight on the outside and paw at his opponents. He’s not particularly dangerous striking at all and lacks the power and conviction in his hands to hurt his opponents. Green does have excellent striking defense though. He’s very hard to hit.

Earlier in the article, I mentioned that Green tends to slow down as the fight progresses, but this only happens if you force him to grapple or fight in the clinch. Green’s cardio holds up pretty good in a Kickboxing match, even when he’s under a good amount of pressure. This is one of the reasons why we rarely see Green use his wrestling. He just doesn’t have the cardio to grapple for some strange reason.

If this fight stays standing, I expect to see Pearson walking Green down and Green playing the role of a matador on the outside. He’ll look to pick Pearson off from the outside, and that’s why I think this will be a close fight. Will judges favor Pearson’s forward pressure, aggression and power shots or will they favor Green’s pitter-patter pawing shots from the outside?

Of course, we also can’t ignore the fact that Ross Pearson has been on a steady decline for a while now. He struggles to pull the trigger like he used to and may have one foot out the door having recently opened up his own Gym in Australia. But one thing we know about Ross is that he has a granite chin, he’s difficult to take down, and we know he’s going to bring it hard for 15 minutes. He always has the cardio to fight at a high pace, and if he can make Green work hard early, I think he stands a great chance of winning.

There’s no way that Pearson should be this big of an underdog in this fight. Win or lose, I truly feel like it will be a visually close matchup and with MMA judges, anything can happen. Pearson is definitely worth a gamble here. Let’s hope it pays off for us.

Please remember that this is a risky bet. You might want to avoid tailing this bet if you hate losing. Long term we are very profitable with underdog bets, but they’re risky. Many of them will lose. Tail at your own risk.

Reasons for betting on Ross Pearson

  • Desmond Green has a passive style of fighting. This is one of the reasons why so many of his fights end up being close.
  • Desmond Green is a strong wrestler on paper but he only shoots an average of 1 takedown every 15 minutes.
  • Ross Pearson has defended 75% of takedowns in 25 fights in the UFC.
  • Desmond Green likes to fight on the outside and chip away at his opponents. Some judges punish this style of fighting.
  • Desmond Green struggles to put his stamp on rounds because he lacks the power in his hands to inflict damage on his opponents.
  • Desmond Green has questionable cardio. He has gassed out many times in the past.
  • Ross Pearson is very difficult to take down and hold down. He does a great job of quickly popping back up to his feet when he does get taken down.
  • Ross Pearson is much more dangerous standing.
  • Ross Pearson is extremely tough. He has a granite chin and he’s the kind of guy you have to practically kill in order to finish.
  • Ross Pearson has excellent cardio. He can fight at a high pace for 3 rounds.
  • Ross Pearson has the ability to push a high pace, pressure Green and test his cardio.
  • Ross Pearson has a lot of heart and he’s very consistent. We know he will turn up and perform to the best of his ability.

Risk Factors with betting on Ross Pearson

  • Desmond Green is a 3 time NCAA Div 1 qualifier.
  • Desmond Green has excellent striking defense. He’s very difficult to hit.
  • Desmond Green has a tricky, awkward style because he doesn’t like to engage.
  • Desmond Green will have a 2 inch height advantage and a 4 inch reach advantage over Pearson.
  • Ross Pearson is only 34 years old, but he has a lot of fight miles on him and appears to be on a steep decline.
  • Desmond Green is still only 29 years old and should be making big improvements from fight to fight.

My Betting Tip

Ross Pearson to win

Recommended Stake

1 Unit

[1% of your bankroll]

Odds

Decimal = 4.50
Moneyline = +350
Fractional = 7/2

22%

Implied Probability

The bookies believe that Ross Pearson has a 22% chance of beating Desmond Green based on their current odds.

35%

Our Probability

I believe that Ross Pearson has a 35% chance of beating Desmond Green based on my extensive research and analysis.

Allsopp
I'm a Professional Gambler from the UK. I specialize in betting on MMA. I've got 1 kid, a Shih Tzu and I've been making money from gambling for around 8 years now.

1 Comment

  1. sounds about right to me mate , great breakdown , im not overly familiar with green but ive seen a lot of pearson over the years and hes always been a staunch performer win or lose , the odds make green look like a high level amazing fighter which im gathering hes not , so yeah you nailed it again buddy

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