UFC on ESPN 2 Betting Tips, Picks and Predictions

2019 continues to be an excellent year for us, as we banked another solid profit last weekend on both prefight and Live Betting.

The future has never looked brighter for us because now, for the first time ever, we can also Live Bet on smaller promotions like Bellator and KSW across multiple different betting websites. This is a game changer because it gives us 20 to 30 more opportunities to make money every year. This Friday we have another Bellator event, and as ever, I’ll be offering my highly profitable Live Betting Tips and alternate fight commentary to all of my Elite Members.

Over the last few months, I’ve also noticed more and more betting websites offering Live Betting on UFC and in particular the number of betting sites offering Live Betting on the early prelim fights is increasing.

We have already made over 20 units of profit in 2019 and with so many events coming up over the next few months, I am confident that this is going to be a massive year for us. Thank you so much for your support. I promise I’ll continue to work hard so that we can always be sure we have our money in strong positions!

Desmond Green vs Ross Pearson Betting Tip and Prediction

Desmond Green and Ross Pearson are two fighters who have had a rough run in the UFC over the last few years. Pearson is 1-5 in his last 6 fights:

Desmond Green has also struggled going 1-3 in his last 4 fights:

For the most part, both Pearson and Green’s losses come against a decent level of opponent, but they also highlight that both guys have some pretty huge weaknesses that can be exploited by their opponents.

When we bet on fighters like Ross Pearson, who are clearly past their prime, we are taking on a lot of risk and the foundation for our decision to place bets like this is always going to be because we feel the risk is worth the reward. That’s why we must start out by evaluating the current odds on this fight.

Ross Pearson is currently a massive underdog at odds of around 4.50 | +350 | 7/2, giving him an implied probability of just 22%. This means that the betting sites are only giving him a 22% chance of beating Desmond Green. In contrast, Green’s current odds of around 1.22 | -456 | 11/50, give him an implied probability of 82% meaning that the betting sites believe he has an 82% chance of beating Ross Pearson. I can tell you right now, with absolute certainty that this is crazy. These odds suggest that the betting sites believe Green has virtually no way to lose and if you take an hour out of your day to watch some footage of both guys, you’ll see that this is simply not the case.

I’m not saying that Ross Pearson will win this fight, but if these guys fought 10 times, Pearson would win at least 3 or 4 times, which means there is
a good amount of value in betting him at the current odds.

So how could the betting sites cap the odds so inaccurately on this matchup? Well… Their error shouldn’t come as too much of a surprise to you after we’ve repeatedly punished them over the last few months for making similar errors. In the previous 2 months, we’ve won underdog bets on Cheick Kongo, Jorge Masvidal, Mike Grundy, Diego Sanchez, Saparbek Safarov, Thiago Alves and Andre Fili, all because we were able to identify massive inaccuracies in the odds making. Win or lose I believe we have identified another big mistake with this fight. There’s just no way that Ross Pearson should be this big of an underdog to a guy like Desmond Green.

So how could they have got the odds so wrong?

Well, I’m guessing it’s because Desmond Green is a 3 time NCAA Div 1 qualifier. On paper, his wrestling is super high level, and grappling has always been Pearson’s Achilles heel. But Green rarely uses his wrestling in MMA because he lacks the cardio to grapple hard for 15 minutes. Every time we have ever seen Green use his wrestling, he has gassed BAD and FAST. The stats also back this up…

As you can see in the stats table below, Green has only shot an average of 1 takedown per 15 minutes in his 5 fights in the UFC. All 5 of these fights went to a decision. This means that Desmond Green has only shot 5 takedowns in his UFC career, despite being in the Octagon for a total of 15 rounds:

While we’re talking about stats, it’s also worth pointing out that Ross Pearson has defended 75% of takedowns in his UFC career. This is extremely impressive when you take into consideration the fact that Pearson has had 25 fights in the UFC and consistently competed against some of the best fighters in the world.

We have seen over the years that it’s difficult to take Pearson down and even harder to hold him down. The stats back this up. Pearson does a great job of quickly popping back to his feet when taken down, and with the new judging scoring criteria also penalizing takedowns that don’t achieve anything, this again favors Pearson’s style.

The fact that Pearson is so hard to take down and hold down and the fact that Green rarely ever tries to take his opponents down anyway, makes me feel that it’s very likely that this fight will be contested standing up, and if that’s the case, I expect it to be close.

Desmond Green is an awkward Southpaw that likes to fight on the outside and paw at his opponents. He’s not particularly dangerous striking at all and lacks the power and conviction in his hands to hurt his opponents. Green does have excellent striking defense though. He’s very hard to hit.

Earlier in the article, I mentioned that Green tends to slow down as the fight progresses, but this only happens if you force him to grapple or fight in the clinch. Green’s cardio holds up pretty good in a Kickboxing match, even when he’s under a good amount of pressure. This is one of the reasons why we rarely see Green use his wrestling. He just doesn’t have the cardio to grapple for some strange reason.

If this fight stays standing, I expect to see Pearson walking Green down and Green playing the role of a matador on the outside. He’ll look to pick Pearson off from the outside, and that’s why I think this will be a close fight. Will judges favor Pearson’s forward pressure, aggression and power shots or will they favor Green’s pitter-patter pawing shots from the outside?

Of course, we also can’t ignore the fact that Ross Pearson has been on a steady decline for a while now. He struggles to pull the trigger like he used to and may have one foot out the door having recently opened up his own Gym in Australia. But one thing we know about Ross is that he has a granite chin, he’s difficult to take down, and we know he’s going to bring it hard for 15 minutes. He always has the cardio to fight at a high pace, and if he can make Green work hard early, I think he stands a great chance of winning.

There’s no way that Pearson should be this big of an underdog in this fight. Win or lose, I truly feel like it will be a visually close matchup and with MMA judges, anything can happen. Pearson is definitely worth a gamble here. Let’s hope it pays off for us.

Please remember that this is a risky bet. You might want to avoid tailing this bet if you hate losing. Long term we are very profitable with underdog bets, but they’re risky. Many of them will lose. Tail at your own risk.

Reasons for betting on Ross Pearson