UFC 224 Betting Tips, Picks and Predictions

UFC 224 looks incredible for prefight betting. It has been a long time since I have felt this confident about our chances of making a big profit on an event.

I believe that the betting websites have been lazy with their capping of these fights because many of the odds seem to be way off. There is a ton of value on many of these fights.

Hopefully, we can make them pay for their complacency by making a lot of money from our bets for UFC 224.

Kelvin Gastelum vs Ronaldo “Jacare” Souza Betting Tip and Prediction

Kelvin Gastelum has been on a legends ass whooping tour over the last couple of years, picking up big wins over the likes of Vitor Belfort, Michael Bisping, and Tim Kennedy. At UFC 224, Gastelum takes on another aging veteran when he faces Ronaldo “Jacare” Souza in a fight that could move the winner very close to a title shot.

Jacare is now 38 years old and definitely in the tail end of his career, but he poses much more of a threat to Gastelum than almost anyone else that he has faced up until this point in his career.

It’s never going to be possible to feel 100% confident when you bet on an old Brazilian, but Jacare hasn’t declined anywhere near as much as his peers since USADA came into effect. In recent fights Jacare has shown that he can still take a punch, he still has a killer instinct and that he still has good enough cardio to compete at a relatively high pace. Of course, at 38 years old all that can change very fast, but based on what we’ve seen in recent fights he is still capable of causing Gastelum all kinds of problems.

This is a classic striker vs. grappler matchup, with Gastelum holding a significant advantage when it comes to striking and Jacare holding a significant advantage when it comes to grappling. The main factor to take into consideration here is that Jacare is a much better striker than Gastelum is a grappler. Jacare still hits hard and has remarkably good striking defense for someone that has been around the sport as long as he has. I still give Gastelum a huge advantage if he can keep the fight standing, but Jacare still has the skills to keep the fight competitive if he fails to take the fight to the ground.

If the fight stays standing, I do believe Gastelum will win, but I also believe that Jacare has the defensive skills and power to make things interesting. The same can not be said for what will happen if Jacare can take this fight to the ground…

Jacare is an absolute nightmare on the ground, and Gastelum has poor takedown defense and an extremely low-level ground game. If Jacare can find a way to take this fight to the ground, Gastelum is in big, big trouble. If you go back and watch some of Gastelum’s fights against Neil Magny, Uriah Hall, Tim Kennedy and Chris Weidman you’ll see that it’s very easy to take him down and put him into bad positions. Jacare’s ground game is in a different league to anyone that Gastelum has faced up until this point in his career

Jacare is now 38 years old, so it’s possible that he could show up and look a shadow of himself, but he looked sharp and aggressive in his last fight against Derek Brunson, which took place just 3 months ago. If Jacare underperforms at UFC 224 it would certainly be a very rapid decline.

Gastelum’s striking is dangerous and he’s extremely fast for the division, but he is at a massive disadvantage if the fight hits the ground. Jacare will also have home advantage on his side and he’s much bigger than Gastelum.

All things considered, at the current odds of around 1.74 | -135 | 37/50, I believe that Jacare is a very good bet.

Reasons for betting on Ronaldo “Jacare” Souza

Jack Hermansson vs Thales Leites Betting Tip and Prediction

If you have been a member of our community for a long time, you will know that I do not like over / under bets. This is because the majority of overs are capped at odds of around 1.40 – 1.50, which means that you need to hit a win rate of 70%, just to make a very small profit. The ROI on these kinds of bets is very poor unless you have an industry-defying win rate that you’d only be able to achieve if you had a Crystal Ball or a Time Travelling machine.

Even though I am not usually in favor of betting on overs and unders, I still research them for every fight. 95% of the time I don’t find anything that is worth betting, but I do occasionally stumble across an over / under bet that is Gold. Last week’s winning bet on Frank Mir vs. Fedor Emelianenko to end under 1.5 rounds was a good example of this, and we also banked a decent profit last month when we bet on the Al Iaquinta vs. Khabib Nurmagomedov fight to last longer than 2.5 rounds.

While researching the fight between Jack Hermansson and Thales Leites, it became clear that it would most likely go the distance and be very close. In these kinds of matchups, we usually see the over 2.5 rounds capped at around 1.40 | -250 | 2/5, which equates to an implied probability of 71%. While it is tempting to bet on overs when it is so clear that a fight will more than likely go the distance, it is a dangerous game to play when the odds are this tight. MMA is such a volatile sport that there is just no value in these kinds of bets.

To be profitable on over / under bets you need to keep a sharp eye on fights where the bookies have not done their homework and offer us extra value. The fight between Hermansson and Leites is a good example of this. In my opinion, the over 2.5 rounds on this fight should be capped at around 1.40 | +-250 | 2/5. Instead, they have capped it at around 1.74 | -135 | 37/50, giving us an implied probability of 57%. These odds are far more attractive.

This fight is a classic example of the bookies Wikicapping a fight. To the naked eye, it may appear unlikely that this match up will go the distance because Hermansson’s last four fights have all ended in the 1st or 2nd round. But when you examine things closer, you will see that it is improbable that this fight will end inside the distance because of how both these guys matchup.

Styles make fights, and this is a classic striker vs. grappler matchup. Hermansson is the striker but lacks the power in his hands to hurt Leites, and Leites is several levels above Hermansson on the ground, but he lacks the wrestling to take Hermansson down.

I predict that this will be a close, awkward fight where someone will win a split decision. I would be very surprised if either guy were able to find a way to get a finish inside the distance.

It’s also worth noting that Leites’ last 6 fights have all lasted longer than 2.5 rounds and he has only been finished one time in his 35 fight career.

Reasons for betting on this fight to last longer than 2.5 rounds

Amanda Nunes vs Raquel Pennington Betting Tip and Prediction

When you research both of these fighters, you will see that Amanda Nunes is better than Raquel Pennington in every single aspect of MMA, but if all fights were decided by who is the more skilled athlete, Darren Elkins would be 0-18 in the UFC. Instead, he has managed to build an impressive 14-4 record while consistently competing against some of the best fighters in the world. If fights were only decided by who is more skilled, we would be very wealthy because it is very easy to identify who is the more skilled fighter in every MMA contest.

Heart, cardio, and toughness can often level the playing field no matter how big a gap there may be when it comes to technical ability. Raquel Pennington has an abundance of those three qualities. When these three qualities are present in abundance, we often see lesser skilled fighters cause big upsets no matter how much the odds are stacked against them.

I am not saying that I favor Pennington in this fight, because skill for skill she is second best to Nunes everywhere. What I am saying is that Nunes tends to slow down as the fight progresses and Pennington’s cardio, heart, and toughness are more than enough to drag her into deep waters and make things interesting in the later rounds.

If I had to pick a winner in a purely coin flip situation, of course, I would go with Nunes, but the odds on Pennington to win are simply outrageous. This fight is much, much closer than the odds suggest. If you like to go dog hunting and search for value, Pennington at the current odds of around 7.50 | +650 | 13/2 is the ultimate gamble.

I make a living from trying to identify lines where the bookies have made a mistake. I then bet on them for profit. I have been doing this a long time, and I can safely say that the odds on this fight are some of the craziest that I’ve ever seen. Amanda Nunes is a great fighter, but she is not a Cris Cyborg level fighter. She has many holes in her game that can be exploited by Raquel Pennington. Amanda Nunes should not be a 1.10 | -1000 | 1/10 favorite against ANYONE in the UFC Women’s Bantamweight Division.

If Pennington shows up and performs to her full potential, I honestly believe that she has a fantastic chance of beating Nunes. Pennington’s problem is that she starts slow and sometimes shows her opponent’s too much respect early on. She almost defeated Holly Holm but left it too late before cranking the pressure up, and she also left it late against Miesha Tate, Bethe Correia, and Jessica Andrade before she really got going. If Pennington comes out the gate aggressive and active from the first minute, I believe she will win this fight because I believe she has the toughness to weather Nunes’ early storm and the cardio to outwork her by a wide margin over 5 rounds.

This is one of those fights where we are gambling on an inconsistent fighter who quite frequently underperforms. Usually, we would avoid placing these kinds of bets, but the odds are just too good to pass up on this occasion. Pennington is a nightmare opponent for Nunes if she shows up and performs to her full potential, but there is no way to know how Pennington will perform until we see her on Fight Night. At the current odds, I am more than happy to take a gamble here, and I strongly recommend that you do the same.

Pennington is at her best when she is walking her opponent down, applying lots of pressure and suffocating her opponent with volume. This style is exhausting to deal with and historically Nunes has not demonstrated the kind of cardio that would respond well to this style of opponent. She was able to edge Shevchenko in her last fight because that fight was contested at a very slow pace. Both fighters looked super tentative, and Shevchenko did not force Nunes to work. This enabled Nunes to pace herself and control the action over 25 minutes. Her cardio did not get tested. If Pennington starts slow, then she will more than likely lose, but if she comes out aggressive and pushes the pace from the first second, I believe she will win. This is a great opportunity for Pennington and I really hope that she grabs it with both hands. Styles make fights and Pennington has the kind of style that can cause Nunes big problems over 5 rounds.

Reasons for betting on Raquel Pennington

Amanda Nunes vs Raquel Pennington 2nd Betting Tip and Prediction

Our second bet on the fight between Amanda Nunes and Raquel Pennington is another example of how the bookies seem to be frequently making mistakes when capping overs and unders on some recent fights.

Amanda Nunes showed in her last fight against Valentina Shevchenko that she is now conscious of her cardio issues and is willing to start slow and pace herself instead of emptying her gas tank early while trying to finish her opponent. This suggests that the first couple of rounds could easily tick by before Nunes starts to crank the pressure up.

Raquel Pennington has only ever been finished one time in her 25 fight career. She was submitted early on in her Pro Career by Cat Zingano at a time when Zingano was one of the best female fighters in the world.

Based on Nunes’ fight against Shevchenko it appears that she is more likely to take a slower, more controlled approach to 5 round fights and Pennington is extremely tough, with the cardio to compete at a high pace for 25 minutes.

Nunes is at a much higher level than the majority of Pennington’s recent opponent’s, but it is worth noting that Pennington is a decision machine with 8 out of her last 10 fights going the distance. Nunes is far more dangerous than anyone Pennington has faced in the Octagon, but it still does not change the fact that it is not easy to get Pennington out of there and based on her past fights she is certainly not a prolific finisher.

All of these factors suggest that it is likely that this fight lasts longer than 2.5 rounds. Win or lose; I strongly feel that this is another example of how the bookies have incorrectly capped the over / under on a fight. There is definite value in this line.

Reasons for betting on this fight to last longer than 2.5 rounds