Bellator 206 Betting Picks, Predictions and Tips

We received substantial positive news this week with the announcement that Bellator 206 would be shown live on Channel 5 in the UK on Friday night.

This is great news for us because our Live Betting options are directly linked to which fights are televised in the UK. We have never been able to Live Bet on Bellator in the past because it has never been broadcast live in the UK. Major online betting websites like Bet365, Paddy Power and Unibet recently started to offer Live Betting on Cage Warriors events since the Cage Warriors Main cards are now broadcast Live on BT Sport. I’m not sure if the betting sites will offer Live Betting on Bellator 206 this weekend, but it certainly makes it likely that they will offer it in the near future.

This is also a significant deal because Channel 5 has a much larger viewership than BT Sport. This could potentially mean that in time Live Betting on Bellator could have higher liquidity than Live Betting on the UFC.

This is a very strong move from Bellator at a time when the UFC appear to be sabotaging their own chances of growing their business in the UK. The new UFC broadcasting deal with Eleven Sports has made it much more difficult for fans to watch MMA in the UK, so Bellator are now in prime position to swoop in and capture market share.

Bellator’s dramatic entrances, theatrical promotions and big name veterans could be the perfect recipe to put Bellator on the map in the UK; a country which is widely regarded as one of the most important combat sports markets in the world.

Hopefully, this new TV deal puts pressure on the UFC to lean on Eleven Sports and finally get the UK / UFC broadcasting arrangement figured out before the BT Sport broadcasting deal expires on December 3rd.

At this stage, I will not be offering Live Betting Tips on Bellator if it is offered on betting sites, until we know what the liquidity is like. I’ll be sure to let you guys know as soon as Live Betting on Bellator becomes a reality.

Scott Coker is a smart man, and with the UFC making such poor broadcasting decisions in the UK I am guessing it will not be long before he looks to capitalize on their complacency and poor business acumen.

Fight Betting Tip Pick
Gegard Mousasi vs Rory MacDonald 2 units on Rory MacDonald to win at odds of 3.25 | +225 | 9/4 MacDonald to win
Quinton “Rampage” Jackson vs Wanderlai Silva No bet Rampage to win
Andrey Koreshkov vs Douglas Lima No bet Koreshkov to win
Aaron Pico vs Leandro Higo 1 unit on Leandro Higo to win at odds of 4.30 | +330 | 33/10 Higo to win
Dakota Zimmerman vs Keri Melendez No bet Melendez to win
Gaston Balanos vs Ysidro Gutierrez No bet Balanos to win

Gegard Mousasi vs Rory MacDonald Betting Tip and Prediction

I am writing this at 7:30 pm British time on Thursday the 27th of September. The United States is 4-6 hours behind us which means the vast majority of people who will be betting on Bellator 206 are still in work right now.

For months I have watched the odds slowly improve on Rory MacDonald, but I cannot wait to bet him any longer because I fear that his odds will get crushed as soon as the masses of casual bettors come home this evening, do some light research and realize how much of a great bet MacDonald is at underdog odds. It’s time for us to lock this bet in.

I’ll give a brief overview of the reasons why I believe Rory MacDonald to beat Gegard Mousasi is one of the best bets of the year in this breakdown, but if you want to see what I am talking about for yourself all you need to do is go and watch these two fights:

Chris Weidman vs Gegard Mousasi and Douglas Lima vs Rory MacDonald.

As you can see in Mousasi’s fight against Weidman, his takedown defense is poor. What you’ll also notice is that Weidman repeatedly takes him down easily using the single leg takedown technique. Now switch over to the fight between Rory MacDonald and Douglas Lima and watch how Rory repeatedly shoots a deep single leg and persistently transitions to other takedown techniques until he gets Lima to the ground. Lima is historically very difficult to take down, and Rory’s timed entries and technique were much tighter than Weidman’s. If Weidman was able to repeatedly take Mousasi down, based on those two fights we have to assume that it will also be a total cakewalk for Rory to get this fight to the ground.

This may come as a surprise to many people because many consider Mousasi to be a strong grappler, but if you take a look back at his record since his days in Strikeforce, you’ll see that he hasn’t been fighting THAT high a level of opponent. Sure he has some big names on his record, but he fought the majority of those big name opponents when they were well past their prime. You could even argue that at the time his fights took place, Mousasi hasn’t fought a legit top 5 guy in his division since Jacare way back in 2014.

Over the last few years Mousasi has been racking up wins against a lot of mid-level guys and some aging veterans, but he has shown massive chinks in his armor in his recent fights against Alexander Shlemenko and Chris Weidman. At 33 years old and with over 50 pro MMA fights, these two matchups were perhaps an indicator that father time is starting to catch up with him.

Mousasi’s most dominant performances over the last few years have been when he has been able to use his grappling to take his opponents down and beat them up on the ground. If you take a look at his record, you’ll notice that he hasn’t been able to do this to any other grapplers. You might also notice that Mousasi has badly struggled on the two occasions when he fought high-level grapplers in Jacare and Weidman.

Rory MacDonald is a strong wrestler, and he has a very high-level ground game. He is one of the few guys who have been able to shut down Demian Maia’s grappling. MacDonald is a significantly stronger grappler than Mousasi with the heart and cardio to spam takedowns for 25 minutes. Weidman gassed out midway through the second round and no longer had the energy to keep taking Mousasi down. This should not happen to MacDonald. MacDonald’s cardio might even improve for this fight because it’s taking place at Middleweight, so he won’t have to cut as much weight as he usually does when he competes at Welterweight.

If this fight stays standing, Mousasi has an advantage, but MacDonald can keep it competitive. Unfortunately, Mousasi’s biggest strength is his fast jab and this is a strike that MacDonald is particularly susceptible to getting hit with. It is of course worth noting that it’s much easier to win rounds taking your opponent down and controlling them on the ground than it is to chip away at them with a jab. If you could choose to have one advantage or the other, you would pick the grappling advantage every time. MacDonald certainly has the grappling advantage in this matchup.

I am in total disbelief at the current odds and based on my research I believe Rory MacDonald should be the favorite in this fight. He has the striking to keep the stand up exchanges competitive and the grappling to dominate. He’s also 4 years younger than Mousasi at just 29 years old with amazing cardio and incredible toughness. I believe that MacDonald is one of the best bets of the year at the current odds. There’s no way he should be an underdog here.

Reasons for betting on Rory MacDonald

[ultimate_icon_list icon_size=”18″][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Gegard Mousasi has poor takedown defense.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Rory MacDonald is a very persistent wrestler. He keeps driving through his opponent until he completes the takedown. If he can’t get his opponent to the ground on the initial shot, he will keep a hold of them and chain his initial takedown into a different kind of takedown. This makes it very difficult to stuff his takedown attempts. His chain wrestling is excellent. [/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Rory MacDonald has excellent cardio.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Rory MacDonald is extremely tough. He had his nose crushed by Robbie Lawler and couldn’t walk against Douglas Lima. He still wouldn’t quit in either fight.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Rory MacDonald has the striking to keep the standup exchanges competitive.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Rory MacDonald has very good fight IQ. He understands the importance of winning rounds. [/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Rory MacDonald has a very heavy top game. He’s also a high level Brazilian Jiu Jitsu Black Belt.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Gegard Mousasi is now 33 years old and has had over 50 pro fights. He looked a little shop worn in his fights against Alexander Shlemenko and Chris Weidman. It’s possible that father time is starting to catchup with him.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Gegard Mousasi sometimes struggles to put his stamp on rounds if he is unable to use his wrestling.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][/ultimate_icon_list]

Risk Factors with betting on Rory MacDonald

[ultimate_icon_list icon_size=”18″][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-exclamation-triangle warning” icon_color=”#ea5e50″]Gegard Mousasi will have an advantage if the fight stays standing.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-exclamation-triangle warning” icon_color=”#ea5e50″]Rory MacDonald has been battling several significant injuries over the last few years.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-exclamation-triangle warning” icon_color=”#ea5e50″]Both guys are roughly the same size but this will be the first time that Rory MacDonald has ever competed at Middleweight.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-exclamation-triangle warning” icon_color=”#ea5e50″]The judging in Bellator is notoriously bad.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-exclamation-triangle warning” icon_color=”#ea5e50″]Gegard Mousasi has an excellent jab and Rory MacDonald tends to get his with a lot of jabs.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][/ultimate_icon_list]

My Betting Tip

Rory MacDonald to win

Recommended Stake

2 Units

[2% of your bankroll]

Odds

Decimal = 3.25
Moneyline = +225
Fractional = 9/4

31%

Implied Probability

The bookies believe that Rory MacDonald has a 31% chance of beating Gegard Mousasi based on their current odds.

65%

Our Probability

We believe that Rory MacDonald has a 65% chance of beating Gegard Mousasi based on our extensive research and analysis.

Aaron Pico vs Leandro Higo Betting Tip and Prediction

I’m shocked that Bellator has put this matchup together because they usually do an excellent job of protecting their young prospects. Michael Page has been competing in Bellator for years, and he still hasn’t faced an elite level opponent. We’ve also seen guys like James Gallagher and AJ McKee enjoy a similar level of protection. I find it very surprising that Bellator would throw one of their hottest young prospects in Aaron Pico into a matchup against an absolute killer like Leandro Higo. This is an extremely tough fight for anyone in Bellator’s Featherweight division, let alone a 22-year-old kid who has only had 4 pro fights, with neither of those fights going past the first round.

There’s a lot of hype behind Aaron Pico right now, but Leandro Higo is a gigantic step up in competition for him at a very early stage in his career. Higo isn’t just some journeyman that has been floating around the B Leagues for the last few years. Higo is a former RFA Bantamweight Champion, and he lost a close split decision to the super talented Eduardo Dantas in his Bellator debut. Higo now trains with the Pitbull brothers but trained at Team Nogueira for a large portion of his career.

Leandro Higo is one of those guys that is truly good at everything. He has decent takedown defense, a Black Belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and as you’d expect from a team Pitbull fighter, he hits very hard.

Aaron Pico has looked good in his first 4 pro fights, but he’s still only 22 years old, and there are still so many questions that need to be answered. People are already talking about him becoming a Champion, but he hasn’t even had a fight go past the first round yet! It’s not like this guy is bulletproof either. Just over 12 months ago he got rocked, dropped and submitted in his Bellator debut by a total journeyman. If someone like Zach Freeman can find a way to hurt Pico and submit him, I guarantee you that someone like Higo can do the same.

This is one of those bets where I could end up looking like a genius or a complete idiot. There’s not much middle ground. If the hype is real and Aaron Pico really is as good as people say he is, then there’s a legit chance he blows Higo out of the water. But we have to look at the facts; Pico is still just 22 years old, and he hasn’t shown us anything yet. He doesn’t have barely any MMA experience. We know that he has a high-level wrestling background and we know that he is training his Boxing with Freddie Roach, but we also know that his fighting style is wild and reckless and he can be caught. Zach Freeman caught him, which means that Leandro Higo can also do it.

I really do not understand how a former RFA Champion with a pro MMA record of 18-4 can be a big underdog to an unproven 22 year old prospect with a pro record of just 3-1. This is a calculated gamble, but definitely a gamble worth taking. The odds on this fight are madness. Higo has a legit chance of winning this. He is a beast.

Reasons for betting on Leandro Higo

[ultimate_icon_list icon_size=”18″][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Aaron Pico has never had a fight go outside of the 1st round.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Aaron Pico has a wreckless style of fighting. [/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Aaron Pico got rocked, dropped and submitted just over 12 months ago in his pro MMA debut. The guy he fought was nowhere near as dangerous as Leandro Higo.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]When Aaron Pico eats clean, hard shots, he immediately backs up and shows signs of pain. This is a big tell for his opponent. Higo has been known to swarm guys when he has had them hurt in the past. Tightening up this weakness will come with experience but Pico is still young and learning. [/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Leandro Higo is a Black Belt in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu. We have no idea what Pico’s ground game is like.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Leandro Higo will have a slight size advantage. [/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Leandro Higo has legit 1 punch KO power in every strike.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]There’s a lot of hype behind Aaron Pico right now with many people calling him a future world champion. This is a lot of pressure for a 22 year old to handle. This could have an adverse effect on his performance.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Leandro Higo has a lot of experience. He’s fought in 5 round main events and he’s fought high level opponents. He’ll be much more streetwise in the cage.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][/ultimate_icon_list]

Risk Factors with betting on Leandro Higo

[ultimate_icon_list icon_size=”18″][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-exclamation-triangle warning” icon_color=”#ea5e50″]Aaron Pico has a high level NCAA Div 1 level wrestling background.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-exclamation-triangle warning” icon_color=”#ea5e50″]Aaron Pico trains his MMA with Duane Ludwig, TJ Dillashaw and Cub Swanson. He trains his Boxing with Freddie Roach.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-exclamation-triangle warning” icon_color=”#ea5e50″]Aaron Pico is very aggressive. He’ll be a nightmare opponent if he can keep up that pace for 15 minutes.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-exclamation-triangle warning” icon_color=”#ea5e50″]Leandro Higo is sometimes passive and lacks urgency. He sometimes fails to put his stamp on rounds. He’s exactly what you’d expect from a Pitbull Brothers fighter. Sometimes he’s passive, while at other times he’s explosive and terrifying.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-exclamation-triangle warning” icon_color=”#ea5e50″]Aaron Pico is very highly rated. He could run through Higo if he’s as good as people say he is in the gym.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][/ultimate_icon_list]

My Betting Tip

Leandro Higo to win

Recommended Stake

1 Unit

[1% of your bankroll]

Odds

Decimal = 4.30
Moneyline = +330
Fractional = 33/10

24%

Implied Probability

The bookies believe that Leandro Higo has a 24% chance of beating Aaron Pico based on their current odds.

50%

Our Probability

We believe that Leandro Higo has a 50% chance of beating Aaron Pico based on our extensive research and analysis.

I'm a Professional Gambler from the UK. I specialize in betting on MMA. I've got 1 kid, a Shih Tzu and I've been making money from gambling for around 8 years now.

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