The main card for Bellator 216 starts in around 4 hours and this looks like it could be a really good card for betting. There are at least 2 bets for this event that I like a lot.
Don’t forget that tonight I will be running an experiment to see if there is enough liquidity available on websites like Bet365 and William Hill to start offering Live Betting Tips on Bellator for every event in the future.
For the first time last week, a few betting sites offered Live Betting on Bellator Newcastle with a really good amount of liquidity that was comparable to what they offer for Live Betting on UFC. I also noticed that all the betting sites were offering very generous odds on the fights and I was personally able to make a very big profit. I am hoping that they continue to be generous this weekend!
To try and test how much liquidity is available for Live Betting Bellator, I will be opening up my Live Betting Tips and alternate fight commentary to all VIP and Elite Members for tonight’s fights. I would like to get between 20 and 30 people online to really test the limits of the liquidity. This would help us to determine whether it is practical for me to offer Live Betting Tips on Bellator moving forward.
This has been a hectic week for me with 2 Bellator events and 1 huge UFC event, so I am going to share my bets with you for this card before I write the analysis and breakdowns. I will be sure to update this article with analysis and breakdowns in the next few hours. Please don’t hesitate to jump in the VIP Chat and ask me any questions you may have about the bets you see below. I will be online for the next few hours.
Take care, I will see you guys in the Live Betting Chat in a few hours for Live Betting on Bellator 216 when the main card starts at 3am UK time.
|Michael Page vs Paul Daley||No bet||Daley to win|
|Cheick Kongo vs Vitaly Minakov||1 unit on Cheick Kongo to win at odds of 5.50 | +450 | 9/2||Kongo to win|
|Mirko “Cro Cop” Filipovic vs Roy Nelson||3 units on Cro Cop to win at odds of 1.61 | -164 | 61/100||Cro Cop to win|
|Erick Silva vs Yaroslav Amosov||No bet||Amosov to win|
|Colby Fletcher vs Valerie Loureda||No bet||Loureda to win|
Cheick Kongo vs Vitaly Minakov Betting Tip and Prediction
Look, I get it. Vitaly Minakov is a big, scary undefeated Russian and Cheick Kongo is a chinny 43-year-old flake box with bad fight IQ. On the surface, Kongo looks like a really bad bet, hell, I’m even surprised I am betting him, but when you dig a little deeper, you’ll see that there is a massive amount of value in his current odds of around 5.50 | +450 | 9/2.
They say that a picture speaks 1000 words, so a 10-minute video explaining the reasons why Kongo is a good bet speaks a few million words. I could try to write the reasons why Kongo is a good bet, but I think my video breakdown would do a much better job of helping you understand why there’s a lot of value on him at his current odds:
I hope my reasoning makes sense, but to summarise:
Vitaly Minakov has bad striking defense, and he’s quite reckless. Kongo has the power and explosiveness to make him pay. Almost every Heavyweight on the planet carries legit KO power in every punch, so when you factor that in as well as bad judging, the chances of disqualifications and injuries, should any Heavyweight really be this big of an underdog?
MMA is a crazy sport, and anything can happen. Kongo has the skills to out grapple Minakov. He also has the skills to knock him out. Win or lose I believe that he is an excellent bet at the current odds.
Reasons for betting on Cheick Kongo
Risk Factors with betting on Cheick Kongo
My Betting Tip
Cheick Kongo to win
[1% of your bankroll]
Decimal = 5.50
Moneyline = +450
Fractional = 9/2
The bookies believe that Cheick Kongo has an 18% chance of beating Vitaly Minakov based on their current odds.
Mirko “Cro Cop” Filipovic vs Roy Nelson Betting Tip and Prediction
I was blown away this afternoon when I started watching some of Cro Cop’s recent fights. At 44 years old he still looks excellent. The same can not be said for Roy Nelson. At 42 years old Nelson appears to be on a steep decline, and it seems like Father time has finally caught up to him. In contrast, Cro Cop still has the skills to hang with some of the best Heavyweights in the world.
Roy Nelson built a career off a heavy top game, a legendary chin and a Nuclear missile of a right hand. Unfortunately, at this stage in his career, he now lacks the explosiveness to shoot in on his opponents, the timing and reflexes to land his big right hand and his chin has also started to fail him over the last couple of years.
Roy Nelson has been branded as a KO artist, but his MMA record tells a very different story. Nelson only has 2 wins by KO in his last 13 fights, and 2 of those KOs came against fighters who were on a rapid decline:
Nelson’s lack of KO wins over the last 6 years can be put down to a few reasons:
1. His overhand right is infamous, so fighters are more aware of it. They circle away from his powerful right hand, and they avoid putting themselves in positions where he could land it.
2. As he moved up the ranks, he started to face higher level opponents, who were better equipped to deal with the threat of the overhand right.
3. Nelson’s speed and reflexes have significantly declined over the last few years, so he doesn’t have the timing and explosiveness that he used to have.
If you go back and watch Cro Cop’s last few fights, you’ll notice that he’s still very sharp, even at 44 years old. When a fighter starts to get older, reflexes tend to be one of the first things to go and yet Cro Cop’s reflexes still look excellent. It will not be easy for Nelson to land his overhand right on someone with such technical striking defense as Cro Cop.
Another potential path to victory for Nelson in this fight is his heavy top game and strong ground game. The ground game has never been Cro Cop’s strength, but his takedown defense has always been excellent. Even at this stage in his career, Cro Cop does an excellent job of reading his opponent’s takedown entries and getting double underhooks in play early. He is incredibly difficult to take down. Nelson badly struggles to get in deep on his opponents hips, so I feel like it’s unlikely that Nelson will be able to get Cro Cop to the ground.
Nelson’s chin and toughness have also been a huge strength for him over the years, but that seems to have escaped him recently. Nelson doesn’t appear to be able to take the same kind of damage that he used to.
Nelson’s cardio has never been great, but even when he was very tired he still carried KO power. That doesn’t seem to be the case anymore. When he slows down, his punches don’t seem to carry that much power on them, and he struggles to back his opponents up and gain respect with his striking.
Cro Cop and Nelson are both well past their prime, but even at this stage in their careers Cro Cop is still dangerous and has the skills to cause Nelson some big problems. I would be surprised if Cro Cop lost this.
Reasons for betting on Mirko “Cro Cop” Filipovic
Risk Factors with betting on Mirko “Cro Cop” Filipovic
My Betting Tip
Mirko “Cro Cop” Filipovic to win
[3% of your bankroll]
Decimal = 1.61
Moneyline = -164
Fractional = 61/100
The bookies believe that Mirko “Cro Cop” Filipovic has an 62% chance of beating Roy Nelson based on their current odds.