Bellator 216 Betting Picks, Predictions and Tips

The main card for Bellator 216 starts in around 4 hours and this looks like it could be a really good card for betting. There are at least 2 bets for this event that I like a lot.

Don’t forget that tonight I will be running an experiment to see if there is enough liquidity available on websites like Bet365 and William Hill to start offering Live Betting Tips on Bellator for every event in the future.

For the first time last week, a few betting sites offered Live Betting on Bellator Newcastle with a really good amount of liquidity that was comparable to what they offer for Live Betting on UFC. I also noticed that all the betting sites were offering very generous odds on the fights and I was personally able to make a very big profit. I am hoping that they continue to be generous this weekend!

To try and test how much liquidity is available for Live Betting Bellator, I will be opening up my Live Betting Tips and alternate fight commentary to all VIP and Elite Members for tonight’s fights. I would like to get between 20 and 30 people online to really test the limits of the liquidity. This would help us to determine whether it is practical for me to offer Live Betting Tips on Bellator moving forward.

This has been a hectic week for me with 2 Bellator events and 1 huge UFC event, so I am going to share my bets with you for this card before I write the analysis and breakdowns. I will be sure to update this article with analysis and breakdowns in the next few hours. Please don’t hesitate to jump in the VIP Chat and ask me any questions you may have about the bets you see below. I will be online for the next few hours.

Take care, I will see you guys in the Live Betting Chat in a few hours for Live Betting on Bellator 216 when the main card starts at 3am UK time.

Fight Betting Tip Pick
Michael Page vs Paul Daley No bet Daley to win
Cheick Kongo vs Vitaly Minakov 1 unit on Cheick Kongo to win at odds of 5.50 | +450 | 9/2 Kongo to win
Mirko “Cro Cop” Filipovic vs Roy Nelson 3 units on Cro Cop to win at odds of 1.61 | -164 | 61/100 Cro Cop to win
Erick Silva vs Yaroslav Amosov No bet Amosov to win
Colby Fletcher vs Valerie Loureda No bet Loureda to win

Cheick Kongo vs Vitaly Minakov Betting Tip and Prediction

Look, I get it. Vitaly Minakov is a big, scary undefeated Russian and Cheick Kongo is a chinny 43-year-old flake box with bad fight IQ. On the surface, Kongo looks like a really bad bet, hell, I’m even surprised I am betting him, but when you dig a little deeper, you’ll see that there is a massive amount of value in his current odds of around 5.50 | +450 | 9/2.

They say that a picture speaks 1000 words, so a 10-minute video explaining the reasons why Kongo is a good bet speaks a few million words. I could try to write the reasons why Kongo is a good bet, but I think my video breakdown would do a much better job of helping you understand why there’s a lot of value on him at his current odds:

I hope my reasoning makes sense, but to summarise:

Vitaly Minakov has bad striking defense, and he’s quite reckless. Kongo has the power and explosiveness to make him pay. Almost every Heavyweight on the planet carries legit KO power in every punch, so when you factor that in as well as bad judging, the chances of disqualifications and injuries, should any Heavyweight really be this big of an underdog?

MMA is a crazy sport, and anything can happen. Kongo has the skills to out grapple Minakov. He also has the skills to knock him out. Win or lose I believe that he is an excellent bet at the current odds.

Reasons for betting on Cheick Kongo

  • Vitaly Minakov’s record is very padded. He has been matched up with a lot of weaker opponents in Russian MMA promotions.
  • Vitaly Minakov is very reckless.
  • Vitaly Minakov fights with his hands low.
  • Vitaly Minakov has bad striking defense and relies on his chin too much.
  • Cheick Kongo is still very fast and athletic for a 43 year old fighter.
  • Cheick Kongo carries legit 1 punch KO power in every shot.
  • Cheick Kongo is a huge underdog in this fight. All Heavyweight fighters carry KO power. There’s value in almost any Heavyweight fighter at these kinds of odds. Especially when it’s someone that is as skilled as Kongo and especially when they’re fighting someone as reckless as Minakov.
  • Cheick Kongo is strong in the clinch. He can grind on Minakov.
  • Bad judging is a big issue in Bellator. If Kongo can make this fight close, there’s a good chance he wins.
  • Minakov could be fighting with an injury or get injured during the fight. These kinds of possible variables add value to a giant underdog like Kongo.

Risk Factors with betting on Cheick Kongo

  • Cheick Kongo is now 43 years old and way past his prime.
  • Cheick Kongo is a little chinny.
  • Vitaly Minakov is very aggressive and carries legit KO power in every strike.
  • Vitaly Minakov has devastating ground and pound. He can easily finish Kongo if he can get into top position.

My Betting Tip

Cheick Kongo to win

Recommended Stake

1 Unit

[1% of your bankroll]

Odds

Decimal = 5.50
Moneyline = +450
Fractional = 9/2

18%

Implied Probability

The bookies believe that Cheick Kongo has an 18% chance of beating Vitaly Minakov based on their current odds.

40%

Our Probability

I believe that Cheick Kongo has a 40% chance of beating Vitaly Minakov based on my extensive research and analysis.

Mirko “Cro Cop” Filipovic vs Roy Nelson Betting Tip and Prediction

I was blown away this afternoon when I started watching some of Cro Cop’s recent fights. At 44 years old he still looks excellent. The same can not be said for Roy Nelson. At 42 years old Nelson appears to be on a steep decline, and it seems like Father time has finally caught up to him. In contrast, Cro Cop still has the skills to hang with some of the best Heavyweights in the world.

Roy Nelson built a career off a heavy top game, a legendary chin and a Nuclear missile of a right hand. Unfortunately, at this stage in his career, he now lacks the explosiveness to shoot in on his opponents, the timing and reflexes to land his big right hand and his chin has also started to fail him over the last couple of years.

Roy Nelson has been branded as a KO artist, but his MMA record tells a very different story. Nelson only has 2 wins by KO in his last 13 fights, and 2 of those KOs came against fighters who were on a rapid decline:

Nelson’s lack of KO wins over the last 6 years can be put down to a few reasons:

1. His overhand right is infamous, so fighters are more aware of it. They circle away from his powerful right hand, and they avoid putting themselves in positions where he could land it.

2. As he moved up the ranks, he started to face higher level opponents, who were better equipped to deal with the threat of the overhand right.

3. Nelson’s speed and reflexes have significantly declined over the last few years, so he doesn’t have the timing and explosiveness that he used to have.

If you go back and watch Cro Cop’s last few fights, you’ll notice that he’s still very sharp, even at 44 years old. When a fighter starts to get older, reflexes tend to be one of the first things to go and yet Cro Cop’s reflexes still look excellent. It will not be easy for Nelson to land his overhand right on someone with such technical striking defense as Cro Cop.

Another potential path to victory for Nelson in this fight is his heavy top game and strong ground game. The ground game has never been Cro Cop’s strength, but his takedown defense has always been excellent. Even at this stage in his career, Cro Cop does an excellent job of reading his opponent’s takedown entries and getting double underhooks in play early. He is incredibly difficult to take down. Nelson badly struggles to get in deep on his opponents hips, so I feel like it’s unlikely that Nelson will be able to get Cro Cop to the ground.

Nelson’s chin and toughness have also been a huge strength for him over the years, but that seems to have escaped him recently. Nelson doesn’t appear to be able to take the same kind of damage that he used to.

Nelson’s cardio has never been great, but even when he was very tired he still carried KO power. That doesn’t seem to be the case anymore. When he slows down, his punches don’t seem to carry that much power on them, and he struggles to back his opponents up and gain respect with his striking.

Cro Cop and Nelson are both well past their prime, but even at this stage in their careers Cro Cop is still dangerous and has the skills to cause Nelson some big problems. I would be surprised if Cro Cop lost this.

Reasons for betting on Mirko “Cro Cop” Filipovic

  • Cro Cop has excellent takedown defense.
  • Cro Cop has excellent reflexes and striking defense.
  • Cro Cop has fast hands and vicious KO power in every strike.
  • Cro Cop has devastating body and leg kicks.
  • Roy Nelson is on a significant decline. He’s much slower than he used to be. His chin has also declined.
  • Roy Nelson’s takedown shots are too high above his opponents hips, which makes them easier to stuff.
  • Cro Cop still has a good chin and decent cardio, even at 44 years old.
  • Cro Cop has nasty leg kicks that can disrupt Nelson’s rhythm.
  • Nelson ducks his head down a lot when coming forward, leaving him wide open to the KO and upper cuts.
  • Cro Cop does a great job of inflicting significant damage in the clinch with knees.

Risk Factors with betting on Mirko “Cro Cop” Filipovic

  • Roy Nelson has a very heavy top game.
  • Cro Cop is coming into this fight on the back of a bad knee injury.
  • Roy Nelson hits very hard.
  • At 44 years old, Cro Cop should be significantly declining from fight to fight.

My Betting Tip

Mirko “Cro Cop” Filipovic to win

Recommended Stake

3 Units

[3% of your bankroll]

Odds

Decimal = 1.61
Moneyline = -164
Fractional = 61/100

62%

Implied Probability

The bookies believe that Mirko “Cro Cop” Filipovic has an 62% chance of beating Roy Nelson based on their current odds.

70%

Our Probability

I believe that Mirko “Cro Cop” Filipovic has a 70% chance of beating Roy Nelson based on my extensive research and analysis.

Allsopp
I'm a Professional Gambler from the UK. I specialize in betting on MMA. I've got 1 kid, a Shih Tzu and I've been making money from gambling for around 8 years now.

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