Bellator can be a tricky MMA promotion to bet on because the standard of judging seems to be very poor and the Bellator fighters tend to be very inconsistent. For that reason, I only ever bet on Bellator fighters when I believe they have the ability to win inside the distance or put in such a dominant performance that the judges couldn’t possibly make the wrong decision.
I haven’t placed a bet on my betting tip for Bellator 136 yet because the odds have been gradually improving on each of my picks since they were first released yesterday. As a result, I’m going to study how the odds move over the next 24 hours and I’ll probably end up placing the bet right before the start of the event.
I recommend that you leave it as late as possible before you place this bet, because I believe that the odds will continue to improve on both of the fighters that we are going to be betting on. Over the last few Bellator events I’ve noticed the odds improve on the majority of the favourites the closer it gets to the start of the event and I can’t see any reason why Bellator 136 would be any different…
2 FIGHT PARLAY ACCUMULATOR | DAVE JANSEN vs WILL BROOKS | JOE SCHILLING vs RAFAEL CARVALHO
Putting Will Brooks and Joe Schilling into a parlay accumulator is a pretty good bet considering the advantages that both these guys have over their opponent’s…
I also believe that the odds will continue to improve on Brooks and Schilling the closer we get to the start of the event, because many people like to bet on underdogs and predict the outcome of fights based on a fighter’s MMA record. If you study the MMA records of Dave Jansen and Ricardo Carvalho, you’d certainly think they have a good chance of winning their fights because Jansen is 20-2 and Carvalho is 10-1. These records look pretty good compared to Brooks who is 15-1 and Joe Schilling who is 2-3. People don’t have the time to watch footage and evaluate how these fighters match up and they end up placing bets on guys who don’t have a very good chance of winning their fights. In this case, those guys are Dave Jansen and Ricardo Carvalho and I’m predicting that a significant number of people will place bets on Jansen and Carvalho, which will in turn improve the odds on Brooks and Schilling…
DAVE JANSEN vs WILL BROOKS
I know the odds on Will Brooks are bad, but he’s one of the best fighters currently competing outside of the UFC. When Brooks fights to his full potential, he can dominate any Lightweight on the Bellator roster.
Ryan Jansen is slow, lacks power and has poor striking defence. Brooks should be able to use his speed, power and athleticism to overwhelm Jansen in any area that this fight could take place.
Will Brooks is 7 years younger than Ryan Jansen and he’s also huge for a Lightweight. Brooks is also extremely well rounded and very aggressive. I expect him to win this fight inside the distance or at the very least dominate for all 5 rounds.
JOE SCHILLING vs RAFAEL CARVALHO
Joe Schilling has an unimpressive MMA record of 2-3, but don’t let that fool you into thinking he’ll struggle against a guy like Ricardo Carvalho…
Schilling is now taking MMA seriously and he’s training full time with the Diaz brothers. He looked good in his last fight against Melvin Manhoef and he’s been working on his grappling skills with Kron and Rickson Gracie.
Bellator are clearly trying to build Joe Schilling as a star and that’s further highlighted by the fact that they’ve matched him up with Ricardo Carvalho, who is striker. I’ve watched all of Carvalho’s recent fights and he hasn’t tried to take any of his opponent’s down. Carvalho has a Muay Thai striking base and everything points to this being a stand up fight…
Schilling might not have a lot of experience competing in MMA, but he has a ton of experience competing in Pro Kick Boxing. Ricardo Carvalho is a striker, but he isn’t on Joe Schilling’s level. He has decent speed and power, but he lacks footwork, he lacks head movement and his striking defence is very poor. Carvalho is also extremely easy to hit and that’s not good when you’re fighting against a Pro Kick Boxer.
I expect Joe Schilling to win this fight by slipping his punches right through Carvalho’s defensive guard. Carvalho gets rocked easily and the most likely outcome of this fight is Joe Schilling winning by knockout.
This feels like a setup fight for Joe Schilling and I’m surprised that he’s not closer to being a 1.50 | -200 | 1/2 favourite.
MY BETTING TIP: 3.5 Units [3.5% of your bankroll] on Joe Schilling and Will Brooks to win at odds of 2.07 | +107 | 107/100