We’ve got 4 betting tips for UFC on Fox 12, as we look to build on our biggest win of the year at last week’s UFC Fight Night 46.
UFC on Fox 12 is headlined by a potential fight of the year candidate as Robbie Lawler takes on Matt Brown. The winner of this fight will emerge as the number one contender in the UFC’s Welterweight division.
We have a betting tip for each of the fights on the main card and we may add more tips when the odds for the prelims become available.
Now lets take a look at our betting tips, picks and predictions for this event…
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BOBBY GREEN vs JOSH THOMSON
Josh Thomson looked incredible in his last fight against Benson Henderson and even though he almost beat the former champ, I still feel like the odds are the wrong way round for this fight. The odds makers have made Bobby Green a pretty big underdog and I feel that this is one of the clear occasions where they’ve got the betting lines completely wrong.
Bobby Green is just one of those fighters who is as strong as a bull and good at everything. Green has significantly better take down defence than Thomson and he’s also a more active striker with power in his hands and devastating kicks.
I am really struggling to see a way that Josh Thomson can win this fight. If Thomson tries to stand with Green, he’s going to get outstruck and blasted from a variety of different angles. This means that Thomson should look to take this fight to the ground, which will be extremely difficult because Green is a better wrestler with excellent take down defence.
Josh Thomson is now 35 years old and he’s had over 30 fights in his career. He started to talk about retirement when he lost to Benson Henderson and that’s never a good sign. Fighters very rarely put on impressive performances once they’ve started to talk about retirement, because thinking of retirement is a clear sign that they’ve lost their drive. Bobby Green is 8 years younger than than Thomson and the younger fighter wins around 70% of the time when there is an 8 year age gap in a fight.
Josh Thomson looked great in his last fight but now is the time to fade him. I am predicting a dominant performance from Bobby Green…
OUR BETTING TIP: 10.00 Units on Bobby Green to win at odds of 3.10 | +210 | 21/10
THE BEST ODDS ON BOBBY GREEN TO WIN CAN BE FOUND AT: [adrotate group=”99″]
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CLAY GUIDA vs DENNIS BERMUDEZ
This is another situation where I believe the odds makers have got the betting lines completely wrong. Dennis Bermudez should be a much bigger favourite in in this fight.
Every Clay Guida fight looks the same. Guida tries to take his opponents down and the rest of his time is spent jumping around the Octagon like some crazy Gorilla. Clay Guida is screwed if he can’t land a take down in a fight and Dennis Bermudez has some of the best take down defence in the UFC. If Guida does manage to get this fight to the ground, I actually favour Bermudez, because he has excellent wrestling and decent submissions.
Dennis Bermudez is a also a better striker than Clay Guida. Bermudez throws a much wider range of punches and lands more than double the amount of strikes per minute.
There’s nothing that Clay Guida can do to beat Dennis Bermudez and the only way that Guida is going to win this fight, is if Bermudez suffers a freak injury or gets caught in a flukey submission.
I’ve just placed a bet on Bermudez to win at the odds of 1.73 | -134 | 73/100 and I fully expect these odds to drop rapidly the closer it gets to the fight. Place your bets as soon as possible because these excellent odds make this one of the best value bets of the year…
OUR BETTING TIP: 10.00 Units on Dennis Bermudez to win at odds of 1.73 | -134 | 73/100
THE BEST ODDS ON DENNIS BERMUDEZ TO WIN CAN BE FOUND AT: [adrotate group=”97″]
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ANTHONY JOHNSON vs ANTONIO ROGERIO NOGUEIRA
It takes a special kind of match up to get me betting on a fighter to win with odds as low as 1.25 | -400 | 1/4, but Antonio Rogerio Nogueira has been given a pretty rough deal by the UFC’s match makers by making him Anthony Johnson.
There are several things that I take into consideration when betting on MMA and unfortunately Nogueira ticks almost every box that indicates you should bet on the guy he is fighting.
Nogueira is now 38 years old and he hasn’t fought in almost 18 months. He’s only had one fight in the last 3 years and despite winning, he didn’t look particularly great. Ring rust is a very real issue in MMA and Anthony Johnson isn’t the kind of guy you want to be facing if you’re feeling a little rusty.
Like I mentioned earlier in this article, age is a huge factor in MMA and you can count the number of successful MMA fighters over the age of 38 on two fingers [Dan Henderson and Randy Couture]. At 38 years old Nogueira is already at a huge disadvantage, because Anthony Johnson is 10 years younger and the younger fighter wins around 70% of the time, when there is a 10 year age gap in a fight.
Anthony Johnson is big, tough and nasty and Nogueira won’t be able to deal with his power or athleticism. This should be an easy fight for Johnson and I actually think there’s value in betting on him to win at the low odds of 1.25 | -400 | 1/4.
OUR BETTING TIP: 20.00 Units on Anthony Johnson to win at odds of 1.25 | -400 | 1/4
THE BEST ODDS ON ANTHONY JOHNSON TO WIN CAN BE FOUND AT: [adrotate group=”95″]
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ROBBIE LAWLER vs MATT BROWN
This is another situation where I feel the odds are way off. Don’t get me wrong. I believe Robbie Lawler will win this fight, but I’m willing to take a risk on Matt Brown at the incredible value odds of 3.99 | +299 | 299/100. I just don’t understand why Matt Brown is this big of an underdog when he has such devastating finishing power.
Matt Brown absolutely wrecked Erick Silva in his last fight and Lawler has never faced anyone that fights at such a high intensity. Don’t get me wrong, I understand that Matt Brown has never fought a fighter as good as Robbie Lawler, but there are enough unanswered questions over how this fight will play out, to make a bet on Matt Brown worthwhile.
I really feel like this is a coin flip of a fight and the odds of 4.00 | +300 | 3/1 present us with an incredible opportunity to make some decent money on Saturday night.
Robbie Lawler and Matt Brown are two of my favourite fighters and I can’t wait to see them compete at UFC on Fox 12! I honestly believe that the winner of this fight will be the next Welterweight champion.
OUR BETTING TIP: 10.00 Units on Matt Brown to win at odds of 4.00 | +300 | 3/1
THE BEST ODDS ON MATT BROWN TO WIN CAN BE FOUND AT: [adrotate group=”74″]
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