The majority of fights on the TUF 20 Finale are unplayable because of a series of odds that lack value. Luckily, I’ve managed to find 2 excellent value Premium Betting Tips, including 1 underdog pick that has a very good chance of winning. Be sure to keep an eye on your emails, because I may add more betting tips to this article, as more fights get announced for the TUF 20 Finale later on this week.
Don’t forget to stop by my
MMA Betting forum and let me know what you think of my betting tips for this event…
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CHARLES OLIVEIRA vs JEREMY STEPHENS
I’m really surprised that Charles Oliveira has opened up as the underdog against Jeremy Stephens and I predict that he will close as the favourite come Fight Night. I’m betting on Oliveira to win, because Jeremy Stephens is the kind of guy who is good at everything and great at nothing. Aside from being more powerful and having decent wrestling, I don’t give him any advantages in this fight and I feel that Charles Oliveira has all the tools necessary to win.
Jeremy Stephens is a dangerous striker, but Oliveira’s striking has improved a lot in the last couple of years. He still needs to tighten up his striking defence, but what he lacks in stand up skills, he more than makes up for in clinch work, grappling and submissions. I am a little concerned that Stephens could catch him with some big shots, but a guy like Stephens is no where near as dangerous when he’s forced to go backwards and Oliveira’s constant pressure will cause him to fight on the back foot.
If Charles Oliveira can get this fight to the ground, Jeremy Stephens is in big trouble. Stephens is a decent striker, but he doesn’t have the most elusive footwork and Oliveira does a really good job of closing the distance and tieing his opponents up. Stephens has good takedown defence and he’s a strong wrestler, but Oliveira is really sneaky and he always finds ways to get his opponents on the ground. Jeremy Stephens frequently takes his opponents down, even when he’s dominating them in the stand up exchanges and it’s almost like he does it instinctively. This will play right into the hands of Charles Oliveira, who is more than happy to fight off his back.
I believe that Charles Oliveira will win this fight because he has more paths to victory. He has good enough striking to keep this fight competitive standing up and his pressure and aggression will score well with the judges. Jeremy Stephens is a pretty one dimensional fighter and I don’t see how he’s going to be able to match Oliveira’s output.
This bet is by no means a lock or a certainty, but at these odds we have to bet on Oliveira to win. Stephens has very limited paths to victory, where as Oliveira has multiple ways that he can win.
I’m only betting 5 units on Oliveira to win because Jeremy Stephens does have knock out power and Oliveira has a nasty habit of losing rounds by giving up dominant positions and spending a significant amount of time on his back. Having said that, I do feel confident that Oliveira will win and I’m very surprised that he didn’t open up as the favourite…
OUR BETTING TIP: 5.00 Units [2.5% of your bankroll] on Charles Oliveira to win at odds of 2.15 | +115 | 23/20
The best odds on Charles Oliveira to win can be found at: [adrotate group=”64″]
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DARON CRUICKSHANK vs KJ NOONS
I don’t give KJ Noons much of a chance in this fight and I personally feel that Daron Cruickshank should have opened up as a much bigger favourite. The odds are already rapidly dropping on Cruickshank to win and you should lock in your bets before the odds drop any lower.
Noons and Cruickshank are both strikers, but Cruickshank is faster, more powerful and he throws a wider range of strikes. Cruickshank is your typical Karate / Tae Kwon Do style fighter, who likes to get in and out without taking any damage. KJ Noons prefers a more traditional Boxing style of striking and this will leave him wide open to Cruickshank’s dangerous kicks. Noons also stays heavy on his lead leg, which means that Cruickshank should be able to blast him with leg kicks. Noons is reasonably good at cutting angles and closing the distance, but styles make match ups and Cruickshank should be able to stay on the outside and blast Noons with his more diverse range of strikes.
KJ Noons won his last fight with a devastating knockout, but Cruickshank isn’t going to hang around in his range long enough for him to land anything significant. Noons isn’t known for his knockout power and I’m guessing that his knockout win over Sam Stout was just a one off. If at any point Cruickshank finds himself in trouble, he should easily be able to take KJ down and control him on the ground.
I believe that Daron Cruickshank will win this fight, because he is more well rounded and he can choose where this fight takes place. He’s a better striker than KJ and he can choose to stand and trade with him or look to grapple and take him down.
This should be a fairly easy fight for Daron Cruickshank and the odds present us with a great opportunity to win some cash.
OUR BETTING TIP: 10.00 Units [5% of your bankroll] on Daron Cruickshank to win at odds of 1.49 | -204 | 49/100
The best odds on Daron Cruickshank to win can be found at: [adrotate group=”64″]
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