UFC 216 Betting Tips, Picks and Predictions

I am excited to announce that I will be launching my voice audio Live Betting Tips for UFC 216. This means that I will be giving out my game plan for betting each fight during the walkouts and I’ll also be breaking down the fight as it happens so that you can learn my system for Live Betting.

Every second counts in Live Betting and I hope that this new way of giving out tips will enable you to lock in your bets faster than ever before.

I also hope that this new system will enable you to preempt when I might be about to place a bet so that you can get yourself into a position where you can lock in a bet even faster with your bookie.

This new system will also enable me to advise our Elite Members in the United States on whether they should still bet on a fighter in between rounds at 5 Dimes.

I will still be giving out my Live Betting Tips by text in the Live Betting Feed. The audio tips are just an addition to the existing service. Please follow the steps below to get yourself ready for the audio Live Betting Tips this weekend:

1. Sign up for a free Discord account.
2. Go to the Live Betting Tips feed 30 minutes before the event starts to access the link for our Private Discord Channel.
3. Click the link to enter our Private Discord Channel.
4. I will play music in the channel 30 minutes before an event starts so that you will know that your audio stream is working correctly. I will begin speaking at the start of the UFC broadcast.
5. You can see how long there is to go before an event starts by checking the countdown timer on our Live Betting Tips page.
6. The link for our Private Discord Channel will change for every event, so you will need to repeat this process every week to access the audio Live Betting Tips.

Please don’t hesitate to contact me via the Forums, Chat Room or by Email if you have any questions about this new addition to our website.

UFC 216 looks like one of the best events for betting this year. I know I said the same thing a few weeks back for UFC Fight Night Japan, but we had our plans to make money derailed when the Charles Rosa vs Mizuto Hirota fight got canceled. We had our money in a solid position when we bet on Charles Rosa to beat Mizuto Hirota, so it was frustrating to make a loss on that event. If the fight would have gone ahead, I do not doubt in my mind that we would have made a profit. UFC 216 looks even better for betting, and I really believe that there’s an excellent chance we’ll bounce back with a big win this weekend

Please keep checking this article regularly for updates because I may add more betting tips as we get closer to the time of the fights.

[vc_table vc_table_theme=”classic”][align-center]Fights,[align-center;c#000000]Betting%20Tips,[align-center;c#000000]Pick|[align-center]Kevin%20Lee%20vs%20Tony%20Ferguson,[align-center;c#679f42;b]2%20Betting%20Tips%20Available,[align-center;c#fdb72f;b]Ferguson%20to%20win|[align-center]Demetrious%20Johnson%20vs%20Ray%20Borg,[align-center;c#2692ff;b]Still%20deciding,[align-center;c#fdb72f;b]Johnson%20to%20win|[align-center]Derrick%20Lewis%20vs%20Fabricio%20Werdum,[align-center;c#679f42;b]1%20unit%20on%20Derrick%20Lewis%20to%20win%20at%20odds%20of%203.15%20%7C%20%2B215%20%7C%2043%2F20,[align-center;c#fdb72f;b]Lewis%20to%20win|[align-center]Beneil%20Dariush%20vs%20Evan%20Dunham,[align-center;c#ea5d50;b]No%20bet,[align-center;c#fdb72f;b]Dariush%20to%20win|[align-center]Cody%20Stamann%20vs%20Tom%20Duquesnoy,[align-center;c#ea5d50;b]No%20bet,[align-center;c#fdb72f;b]Stamann%20to%20win|[align-center]Kalindra%20Faria%20vs%20Mara%20Borella,[align-center;c#ea5d50;b]No%20bet,[align-center;c#fdb72f;b]Faria%20to%20win|[align-center]Bobby%20Green%20vs%20Lando%20Vannata,[align-center;c#679f42;b]3%20units%20on%20Lando%20Vannata%20to%20win%20at%20odds%20of%201.59%20%7C%20-169%20%7C%2059%2F100,[align-center;c#fdb72f;b]Vannata%20to%20win|[align-center]Pearl%20Gonzalez%20vs%20Poliana%20Botelho,[align-center;c#ea5d50;b]No%20bet,[align-center;c#fdb72f;b]Botelho%20to%20win|[align-center]Marc%20Godbeer%20vs%20Walt%20Harris,[align-center;c#679f42;b]Betting%20Tip%20Available,[align-center;c#fdb72f;b]Harris%20to%20win|[align-center]John%20Moraga%20vs%20Magomed%20Bibulatov,[align-center;c#ea5d50;b]No%20bet,[align-center;c#fdb72f;b]Bibulatov%20to%20win|[align-center]Brad%20Tavares%20vs%20Thales%20Leites,[align-center;c#679f42;b]3%20units%20on%20this%20fight%20to%20last%20longer%20than%202.5%20rounds%20at%20odds%20of%201.45%20%7C%20-222%20%7C%209%2F20,[align-center;c#fdb72f;b]Tavares%20to%20win|[align-center]Marco%20Antonio%20Beltran%20vs%20Matt%20Schnell,[align-center;c#ea5d50;b]No%20bet,[align-center;c#fdb72f;b]Schnell%20to%20win[/vc_table]

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DO NOT PLACE BETS ON ALL OF OUR PICKS

In the table above we give our picks and predictions for every fight. This is to help you put together teams in Fantasy MMA or enter Pick’em competitions. Please do not bet on all of these picks. You should only bet on our official VIP Betting Tips that you can find further down this page.

These picks and predictions are based on which fighters we perceive to have the best betting value. This doesn’t necessarily mean we think the fighter we pick has any notable advantage over their opponent.

The results of these picks are not tracked. We share them with the community because some members use them to enter Fantasy MMA and Pick’em competitions.

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Kevin Lee vs Tony Ferguson Betting Tip and Prediction

Tony Ferguson is like a Forest Fire. His trail of destruction is not predictable, and it doesn’t look elegant, but he is impossible to slow down and the longer you let his fire burn, the more devastating he becomes.

Rafael Dos Anjos was better than Tony Ferguson in every single aspect of MMA. Edson Barboza was picking him apart, and Lando Vannata dropped him multiple times, but all three of these guys ended up becoming engulfed in Ferguson’s flames and eventually got dominated.

To beat Tony Ferguson, you need to be able to keep up with the pace that he sets over 25 minutes and aside from Nate Diaz, there isn’t a Lightweight on earth that can keep up with him for 5 rounds.

Kevin Lee has the skills to beat Tony Ferguson, but he does not have the cardio to keep up with him for 25 minutes and for that reason Ferguson is an excellent bet at the current odds.

If you go back and watch Lee’s fight against Francisco Trinaldo, you’ll see him taking deep breaths and fading towards the end of round 1. He also struggled against Efrain Escudero. Ferguson fights at a relentless pace, and there’s no way that Lee will be able to keep up with him for more than 2 rounds.

Lee has to finish Ferguson in the first two rounds, or we may end up seeing one of the nastiest beatdowns in the history of the UFC.

So the real question here is; what are the chances that Lee gets a finish in round 1 or 2? In my opinion, there is barely any chance that Lee finishes Ferguson.

Lee is dangerous when he is on the ground. His strong wrestling and high-level Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu enable him to take his opponent’s down and quickly take their back. Lee’s ability to trap his opponent’s in a body triangle and work for a Rear Naked Choke is excellent, but Ferguson is also a strong wrestler who is skilled in BJJ.

Kevin Lee is dangerous on the ground, but Tony Ferguson trains under Eddie Bravo at 10th Planet Jiu-Jitsu and his high-level ground game should be more than enough to protect him against Lee’s submission threat in the early rounds.

I am a big fan of Kevin Lee, but he’s still only 25 years old, and I can’t help but feel that this matchup is too much too soon. I don’t expect this fight to be pretty and Ferguson may struggle in the early rounds, but eventually, I see Kevin Lee drowning in deep water. This is the most confident I have felt in a bet in a long time.

Reasons for betting on Tony Ferguson to win...

[ultimate_icon_list icon_size=”18″][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Kevin Lee has had cardio issues throughout his career.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Tony Ferguson has some of the best cardio in the history of the UFC. He never gets tired. [/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Kevin Lee is used to having a reach advantage over his opponent’s. This will be the first time in a while where he will not have a reach advantage.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Tony Ferguson fights at a relentless pace. Kevin Lee will not be able to keep up with the pace that he sets. [/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Kevin Lee has poor striking defense.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Kevin Lee does not react well to pressure and Tony Ferguson is a high pressure fighter. [/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Tony Ferguson is extremely tough. He has a ton of heart. It is impossible to break him.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Tony Ferguson is an unorthodox switch stance fighter.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Tony Ferguson is a strong wrestler. He also trains with Eddie Bravo at 10th Planet Jiu Jitsu. He is very skilled on the ground. [/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Kevin Lee very quickly turns into a panic wrestler if a fight is not going his way. This plays perfectly into Ferguson’s style. [/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Kevin Lee does not have any prior experience competing in 5 rounds fights. [/ultimate_icon_list_item][/ultimate_icon_list]

Risk factors with betting on Tony Ferguson to win...

[ultimate_icon_list icon_size=”18″][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-exclamation-triangle warning” icon_color=”#ea5e50″]Kevin Lee is a strong wrestler with high level Brazilian Jiu Jitsu.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-exclamation-triangle warning” icon_color=”#ea5e50″]Tony Ferguson is a wild and wreckless fighter. He takes a lot of risks in his fights.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-exclamation-triangle warning” icon_color=”#ea5e50″]This is the biggest fight of Ferguson’s life. Sometimes fighters under-perform under the pressure of the bright lights of a high profile matchup.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-exclamation-triangle warning” icon_color=”#ea5e50″]Anything can happen in MMA.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][/ultimate_icon_list]

Our Betting Tip

Tony Ferguson to win

Stake

7.5 Units

[7.5% of your bankroll]

Odds

Decimal = 1.49
Moneyline = -204
Fractional = 49/100

67%

Implied Probability

The bookies believe that Tony Ferguson has a 67% chance of beating Kevin Lee based on their current odds.

90%

Our Probability

We believe that Tony Ferguson has a 90% chance of beating Kevin Lee based on our extensive research and analysis.

Mark Godbeer vs Walt Harris Betting Tip and Prediction

Walt Harris has underperformed at certain points throughout his career, but these poor performances have occurred when he has had to worry about defending takedowns. When he can focus on his striking and let his hands go, he is devastating.

Mark Godbeer is primarily a striker with very low level grappling. There is no risk that Harris will be taken down in this fight. This means that Harris will be able to focus 100% on his striking and in these types of matchups he usually shines.

Godbeer is tough and dangerous in round 1, but after that he fades, and he becomes significantly less dangerous in rounds 2 and 3. Walt Harris has excellent cardio for a Heavyweight, and he does a job of pacing himself. I expect him to be able to weather Godbeer’s early storm and end up winning this fight with superior technique and conditioning.

Walt Harris has good technical striking and knockout power in every strike. Mark Godbeer is more of a brawler who throws wild looping hooks. When these hooks land they carry knockout power, but Harris is good defensively, and Godbeer telegraphs his power strikes, so it’s unlikely that Godbeer will be able to land anything big.

At the current odds I believe Walt Harris is a decent bet. I recommend that you place this bet as soon as possible because I expect the odds to decline very soon.

Reasons for betting on Walt Harris to win...

[ultimate_icon_list icon_size=”18″][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Mark Godbeer is only dangerous in round 1, after that he fades.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Mark Godbeer has no wrestling, no takedown defense and a very low level ground game. [/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Mark Godbeer has low level striking and he’s very predictable. He moves in straight lines and telegraphs his power strikes.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Walt Harris is a Southpaw. [/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Walt Harris has good technical Boxing and throws with knockout power in every strike.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Walt Harris is significantly faster than Mark Godbeer. [/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Walt Harris has excellent cardio for a Heavyweight.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Walt Harris is primarily a striker but he is a significantly better grappler than Godbeer. It’s possible that he could follow Justin Ledet’s Blueprint for beating Godbeer by taking him down and exploiting his weaknesses on the ground.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Walt Harris has a 6 inch reach advantage. [/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Walt Harris appears to be making big improvements from fight to fight. [/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Mark Godbeer is very predictable. [/ultimate_icon_list_item][/ultimate_icon_list]

Risk factors with betting on Walt Harris to win...

[ultimate_icon_list icon_size=”18″][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-exclamation-triangle warning” icon_color=”#ea5e50″]Mark Godbeer is tough and aggressive.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-exclamation-triangle warning” icon_color=”#ea5e50″]Mark Godbeer is dangerous in round 1.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-exclamation-triangle warning” icon_color=”#ea5e50″]Walt Harris has underperformed at certain points throughout his career.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-exclamation-triangle warning” icon_color=”#ea5e50″]Flash KOs are more likely in the Heavyweight division.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][/ultimate_icon_list]

Our Betting Tip

Walt Harris to win

Stake

4 Units

[4% of your bankroll]

Odds

Decimal = 1.35
Moneyline = -286
Fractional = 7/20

74%

Implied Probability

The bookies believe that Walt Harris has a 74% chance of beating Mark Godbeer based on their current odds.

80%

Our Probability

We believe that Walt Harris has an 80% chance of beating Mark Godbeer based on our extensive research and analysis.

Kevin Lee vs Tony Ferguson Betting Tip and Prediction

I’ve been waiting all week to share this tip with you, and now that the betting limits have opened up it’s time to lock it in.

I’d never usually give out tips on prop bets because the betting limits are historically very low, but a few months back I discovered that most major betting websites substantially increased the limits on “Does the fight end inside the distance” lines on the day of big PPVs.

If you know anything at all about Tony Ferguson and Kevin Lee, you’ll know that there’s not much of chance that this fight goes the distance. Ferguson is wild, aggressive and fights at a relentless pace and Kevin Lee struggles to compete at a high pace for 3 rounds, let alone 5. Lee’s cardio issues and Ferguson’s wreckless fighting style virtually guarantee that this fight will end inside the distance.

Kevin Lee has suffered from cardio issues throughout his career, and I do not see any way that he could survive for 25 minutes against Tony Ferguson. I believe that this is a very safe bet.

Reasons for betting on this fight to finish inside the distance...

[ultimate_icon_list icon_size=”18″][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]6 out of Kevin Lee’s last 7 fights have ended inside the distance.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]4 out of Tony Ferguson’s last 6 fights have ended inside the distance. [/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Kevin Lee has cardio issues. He tends to significantly slow down in the 2nd round. It’s unlikely he has the cardio to keep up with Ferguson for 5 rounds.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Tony Ferguson fights at a relentless pace. Kevin Lee will not be able to keep up with the pace that he sets. [/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Ferguson has a wreckless style of fighting.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Both guys are capable of finishing this fight from any position.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][/ultimate_icon_list]

Risk factors with betting on Tony Ferguson to win...

[ultimate_icon_list icon_size=”18″][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-exclamation-triangle warning” icon_color=”#ea5e50″]Anything can happen in MMA.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][/ultimate_icon_list]

Our Betting Tip

Fight does not go the distance

Stake

5 Units

[5% of your bankroll]

Odds

Decimal = 1.40
Moneyline = -250
Fractional = 2/5

71%

Implied Probability

The bookies believe that this fight has a 71% chance finishing inside the distance based on their current odds.

85%

Our Probability

We believe that this fight has an 85% chance of finishing inside the distance based on our extensive research and analysis.

I'm a Professional Gambler from the UK. I specialize in betting on MMA. I've got 1 kid, a Shih Tzu and I've been making money from gambling for around 8 years now.

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