UFC on ESPN+ 4 Betting Tips, Picks and Predictions

March got off to a flying start last weekend with a solid 4.6 unit profit for UFC 235. With 6 major MMA events still to come this month I am optimistic that this could be one of our biggest months of all time. We have now been consistently grinding out profits almost every month since last September.

As we approach UFC on ESPN+ 4, it is important to remember that this event takes place in Kansas, a state that is notorious for having bad judges. Bellator have held a lot of events in Kansas over the last few years, and we have seen some horrendous decisions. For this reason, we need to keep things tight this weekend and bet smart. We should only place bets if we feel the fighter we’re betting can win inside the distance or dominate to the point where there is no way that the judges can screw it up. I believe there’s a high chance we will see some crazy decisions this weekend. But I am also hopeful that we can bank another profit.

Fight Betting Tip Pick
Derrick Lewis vs Junior Dos Santos No bet Dos Santos to win
Curtis Millender vs Elizeu Zaleski Dos Santos No bet Dos Santos to win
Niko Price vs Tim Means 3 units on Tim Means to win at odds of 1.53 | -189 | 53/100 Means to win
Ben Rothwell vs Blagoy Ivanov No bet Rothwell to win
Beneil Dariush vs Drew Dober No bet Dariush to win
Omari Akhmedov vs Tim Boetsch No bet Boetsch to win
Anthony Rocco Martin vs Sergio Moraes 1 unit on Sergio Moraes to win at odds of 2.85 | +185 | 37/20 Moraes to win
Marion Reneau vs Yana Kunitskaya No bet Reneau to win
Grant Dawson vs Julian Erosa No bet Erosa to win
Jeff Hughes vs Maurice Greene No bet Greene to win
Louis Smolka vs Matt Schnell No bet Smolka to win
Alex Morono vs Zak Ottow Still researching Still researching
Alex White vs Dan Moret No bet Moret to win

Niko Price vs Tim Means Betting Tip and Prediction

Tim Means is a tough stylistic matchup for Niko Price. I would be shocked if Means were to lose this fight.

Means is one of those guys that has the total package. He has a granite chin, amazing cardio, he’s incredibly tough, and he’s highly skilled in all aspects of MMA. His striking is excellent, his takedown defense is solid, and if you can get him down, he’s a nightmare on the ground. Tim’s only weaknesses over the years have been his occasionally passive fighting style and inability to put his stamp on rounds against some of his past opponents.

The only concern I have about Means in this fight is that the Kansas State Athletic Commission judges have historically been very poor and Means’ occasional inability to put his stamp on rounds does leave the slight risk that he could get robbed by the judges. However, I do not expect this to play a factor in this matchup because Price isn’t skilled enough to compete with Means anywhere. Price is simply too sloppy and reckless standing, and he’s too low level on the ground.

Most Tim Means fights look very similar. He likes to take the center of the Octagon and walk his opponent down. He has the cardio and chin to stand right in front of the majority of his opponents for 15 minutes and overload their brain with the diverse range of strikes that he throws. Means is naturally an orthodox stance fighter, but he’s at such a high level that he can comfortably fight Southpaw too. You’ll frequently see him switch his stances in fights to mix things up and further confuse his opponent.

In contrast, Niko Price is a very low-level striker. When it comes to technique, Means is lightyears ahead of him. Price does have power in his hands, but his strikes are telegraphed, and Means has a rock solid chin. Means should easily be able to avoid getting caught with anything too dangerous while being able to pick Price apart easily.

Means will most likely want to keep this fight standing, but he will also have an enormous advantage if this fight goes to the ground. Price is very green on the ground and frequently gives up positions. His top game is also quite weak. If Means and Price go to the ground, we may see Price have a little success early, but by the end of the exchange, I would expect Means to dominate.

It’s also worth noting that Niko Price is no longer training at American Top Team. Instead, he has moved back home to train at a small, independent gym. We also have to take into account the fact that Price is returning to action after being brutally KO’d 6 months ago at the hands of Abdul Razak Alhassan. Price is a fighter who relies on aggression and explosive energy, and he may not be the same guy now that his confidence may have taken a knock after that bad KO. We see this happen to fighters all the time and Niko Price doesn’t have high-level skills to fall back on.

Skill for skill Tim Means is significantly better than Niko Price in every single aspect of MMA. This bet should win easily.

Reasons for betting on Tim Means

  • Tim Means is significantly better than Niko Price in every single aspect of MMA.
  • Tim Means can dominate this fight wherever it takes place.
  • Tim Means is very tough and he has an excellent chin.
  • Tim Means has excellent cardio, he can fight at a high pace for 3 rounds.
  • Niko Price has predictable, low level striking. Everything is done with aggression and explosion as opposed to proper technique. Means has excellent striking defense and should be able to evade Price’s power strikes.
  • Tim Means is very comfortable fighting out of both the Southpaw and Orthodox stance. He frequently switches stances to confuse opponents.
  • Tim Means throws a very diverse range of strikes.
  • Niko Price is very low level on the ground. Tim Means should be able to dominate if this fight goes to the ground.
  • Niko Price is no longer training at American Top Team. Instead he has moved back home to train at a small, independent gym.
  • Niko Price is returning to action after being brutally KO’d in his last fight against Abdul Razak Alhassan. Price is a guy who relies on aggression and explosiveness. If this bad KO has effected his confidence it may have a big negative impact on his fighting style. We see fighters struggle to psychologically overcome bad KOs all the time.
  • Tim Means does a good job of controlling the center of the Octagon and drowning his opponents in pressure.
  • Niko Price lacks the technique to be competitive with Means standing up or on the ground.

Risk Factors with betting on Tim Means

  • The Kansas State Athletic Commission judges are very bad.
  • Tim Means is quite open about the fact that he only fights for money. He has fought with bad injuries in the past to get a payday.
  • Tim Means occasionally struggles to put his stamp on rounds against some opponents.
  • Sometimes it appears that Means is “holding back”.
  • Sometimes Means shows up with a passive style of fighting.
  • Niko Price hits hard.

My Betting Tip

Tim Means to win

Recommended Stake

3 Units

[3% of your bankroll]

Odds

Decimal = 1.53
Moneyline = -189
Fractional = 53/100

65%

Implied Probability

The bookies believe that Tim Means has a 65% chance of beating Niko Price based on their current odds.

70%

Our Probability

I believe that Tim Means has a 70% chance of beating Niko Price based on my extensive research and analysis.

Anthony Rocco Martin vs Sergio Moraes Betting Tip and Prediction

Sergio Moraes was not a fighter that I was planning to bet this week, but that changed after I did some research. The odds on this fight are very inaccurate.

Anthony Rocco Martin is a talented fighter, but he’s also a guy that struggles to put his stamp on rounds. This is mainly because he is primarily a grappler, but he lacks the offensive wrestling to take most of his opponents down. Martin’s striking is not that dangerous either, and he only throws a low volume of strikes per round. This results in his fights often being close.

When he can get his opponents down, he is very dangerous, but his grappling skills won’t help him in this matchup, because Moraes is a multiple time World Jiu-Jitsu Champion. Martin will need to avoid going to the ground at all costs because if this fight does hit the ground, Moraes should be able to dominate.

Sergio Moraes has a Demian Maia style ground game where he doesn’t rush anything, he doesn’t give up position, and you’ll also rarely see him working for submissions. Instead, he sticks to the basics and methodically works through the steps to put his opponents into worse and worse positions. He has an extremely heavy top game, and once he has obtained a dominant position, it’s very difficult to recover. Martin is also a Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu Black Belt and a highly skilled grappler, but Moraes is Yoda and Martin is a young Luke Skywalker!

Even though both these guys are primarily grapplers, I expect the majority of this fight to take place standing because Martin and Moraes both lack the offensive wrestling to take each other down. For this reason, it is unlikely that this fight will go to the ground unless someone gets knocked down or slips. This is the reason why I think the odds are so off in this matchup. I actually give Moraes a slight edge when it comes to striking…

Martin is a fighter who really struggles to put his stamp on rounds when a fight stays standing. He gets into good positions but struggles to let his hands go. This results in him only landing a low volume of strikes per round. Even worse is that he doesn’t tend to carry that much power in his hands, so when he does land it doesn’t tend to do that much damage or leave much of an impression on the judges.

Many people will be going into this fight under the impression that Martin will be able to outstrike Moraes, but based on Moraes’ performance against Tim Means just 1 year ago I think they may be in for a surprise. In that fight, Moraes was able to outstrike Means for large periods which is extremely impressive when you take into consideration how good Tim Means is.

When it comes to both striking offense and defense, Means is at a much higher level than Martin, so if Moraes had a lot of success against Means, there’s a good chance he’ll do even better against Martin!

Moraes is a difficult puzzle to solve because his striking style is very unorthodox. His technique is very low level, but because it’s so unusual, it also takes time for his opponents to adjust to his style. By the time they have adjusted, they are often down a round or 2.

Moraes likes to keep a high Boxing guard, which makes it difficult to land power shots on him and he then wings, wild, looping sloppy hooks that land with a lot of power and garner a big reaction from the crowd. This is where I see Moraes winning this fight…

We saw in Martin’s last fight against Jake Matthews how he constantly walked onto big counters for almost the whole of the 1st and 2nd rounds. Martin seemed reluctant to make an adjustment and go to a Plan B, even when it was clear he was losing. Moraes can use the same strategy to walk Martin onto his big looping counter hooks that leave a big impression on the judges.

I want to make it clear that I think this will be a close fight. It will more than likely stay standing and it will look ugly and scrappy. Moraes isn’t going to run through Martin. This is a tough fight for both guys. I think this matchup is 50 / 50.

But to summarise…

I don’t believe there is a single area where Martin has an advantage over Sergio Moraes. Moraes is a significantly better grappler, and I also give him a slight edge when it comes to striking. There’s no doubt that Martin is the more technical striker, but Moraes hits hard, he has a tricky style, and on average he lands more strikes per round. He also throws explosive attacks which gain a reaction from the crowd and can sway the judges.

Sergio Moraes should not be a big underdog in this fight because I believe it’s going to be a close matchup. We also have to remember that the judges in Kansas are historically very bad, so even if this ends up being anywhere near close, Moraes has a good chance of winning as a relatively big underdog.

The way these guys matchup has split decision written all over it, so in a 50 / 50 situation, Moraes is a good bet as a big underdog. This bet is risky, but at the current odds, I feel like the risk is worth the reward.

Reasons for betting on Sergio Moraes

  • Anthony Rocco Martin is the favorite in this fight, but he doesn’t have an advantage over Sergio Moraes anywhere.
  • Sergio Moraes and Martin are both grapplers, but Moraes is a much higher level grappler.
  • Sergio Moraes is a multiple time World Jiu-Jitsu Champion.
  • Martin lands a low volume of strikes per round.
  • Martin lacks power in his hands. He’s not a particularly dangerous striker. He struggles to get respect from his opponents standing.
  • Sergio Moraes lands more strikes than Martin on average, per round.
  • Sergio Moraes has a tricky, unorthodox style that his opponents find tough to adjust to.
  • Sergio Moraes has good striking defense. He keeps a high Boxing guard that makes it difficult for his opponents to land power strikes.
  • Martin has questionable fight IQ. He rarely switches things up and makes adjustments, even when it’s clear he’s losing a fight.
  • Sergio Moraes throws hard, wild, looping hooks that land with a lot of power and get a big reaction from the crowd. This can sway the judges.
  • In his last fight against Jake Matthews, Martin repeatedly walked onto big counters. Moraes used the exact same strategy against Means to outstrike Means for large periods of that fight.
  • Historically the Kansas State Athletic Commission judges have been very poor. I believe this will be a close fight. With Moraes being such a big underdog, there’s a legit chance he’ll win this fight even if he “loses” because the Kansas judges are so bad and Moraes has the more explosive, crowd pleasing style.

Risk Factors with betting on Sergio Moraes

  • The Kansas State Athletic Commission judges are very bad.
  • Sergio Moraes is now 36 years old. He should be declining from fight to fight, while at just 29 years old Martin should still be making improvements.
  • Both guys are quite closely matched. This should be a close fight.
  • Sergio Moraes has a habit of getting sucked into reckless exchanges.
  • Sergio Moraes has slowed down in some of his past fights.

My Betting Tip

Sergio Moraes to win

Recommended Stake

1 Unit

[1% of your bankroll]

Odds

Decimal = 2.85
Moneyline = +185
Fractional = 37/20

35%

Implied Probability

The bookies believe that Sergio Moraes has a 35% chance of beating Anthony Rocco Martin based on their current odds.

55%

Our Probability

I believe that Sergio Moraes has a 55% chance of beating Anthony Rocco Martin based on my extensive research and analysis.

Allsopp
I'm a Professional Gambler from the UK. I specialize in betting on MMA. I've got 1 kid, a Shih Tzu and I've been making money from gambling for around 8 years now.

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