February turned out to be a decent month because we banked a profit of just over 11 units in total. We’ve now made a profit in 5 out of the last 6 months:
March is shaping up to be our busiest month in a very long time with 5 UFC events and 2 Bellator events taking place in the next 4 weeks.
Last week when I first began to research UFC on ESPN+ 3 I felt it would be great for prefight betting, but in the end, there weren’t many opportunities that I liked. I don’t want to speak too soon again, but initially, I do think UFC 235 looks good for betting. I’ve already locked in one bet that I think is excellent value and I hope to add more in the next few hours and days.
|Anthony Smith vs Jon Jones||No bet||Jones to win|
|Kamaru Usman vs Tyron Woodley||No bet||Usman to win|
|Cody Garbrandt vs Pedro Munhoz||No bet||Garbrandt to win|
|Ben Askren vs Robbie Lawler||No bet||Lawler to win|
|Tecia Torres vs Weili Zhang||No bet||Torres to win|
|Diego Sanchez vs Mickey Gall||2 units on Diego Sanchez to win at odds of 3.80 | +280 | 14/5||Sanchez to win|
|Jeremy Stephens vs Zabit Magomedsharipov||No bet||Stephens to win|
|Johnny Walker vs Misha Cirkunov||1 unit on Misha Cirkunov to win at odds of 2.60 | +160 | 33/20||Cirkunov to win|
|Alejandro Perez vs Cody Stamann||No bet||Stamann to win|
|Charles Byrd vs Edmen Shahbazyan||No bet||Shahbazyan to win|
|Gina Mazany vs Macy Chiasson||No bet||Chiasson to win|
|Hannah Cifers vs Polyana Viana||No bet||Viana to win|
Diego Sanchez vs Mickey Gall Betting Tip and Prediction
Win or lose I think that Diego Sanchez is one of the best bets that I have seen in a very long time. The odds make no sense on this fight, and I expect them to decline significantly in the run-up to this fight. I would not even rule out the possibility that so much money comes in on Diego that the odds end up at roughly even money. There is no valid reason why he should be an underdog to Mickey Gall.
To appreciate just how great of a bet Diego Sanchez is, I recommend that you go back and watch Mickey Gall’s fights against Sage Northcutt and Randy Brown. Then go and check out Sanchez’s fights against Craig White and Marcin Held.
Mickey Gall is primarily a Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu based fighter, which means that he is happy to fight off his back where he can attack his opponents with submissions. This is great in BJJ tournaments, but it’s a terrible strategy in MMA, especially when you’re facing someone with such a heavy top game as Sanchez. If you go and checkout Gall’s fight against Randy Brown, you’ll see that he gives up takedowns very easily because he wants to be on his back. When Brown shot in on a single leg, he practically rolled to his back Fabricio Werdum style.
This style of fighting is ok when you’re Demian Maia, but it’s generally not a good idea unless you have an elite level ground game, which Mickey Gall does not have. Gall is actually very ineffective off his back. He struggles to improve his position when on his back and doesn’t seem to know how to work his way back to his feet.
Diego Sanchez built a career off being a wild, exciting brawler, but in recent years all the wars have started to catch up to him, and his chin does not allow him to get sucked into that kind of fight anymore. Diego now looks fragile and slow standing. I am hoping that this won’t be too much of a problem against Gall, who’s striking hasn’t looked at all dangerous up until this point in his career. Gall is currently training with Joe Schilling though so it’s possible that he could be making big improvements to his striking from fight to fight. At 37 years old it’s never going to take much to put Sanchez away if you can land a clean, hard shot.
The good news is that Sanchez has started to understand his limitations and switch up his fighting style to better suit where he is currently at in his career. In his last fight against Craig White, he wasted no time in rushing White, driving him into the cage and taking him down. No reckless exchanges, no unnecessary risks, Diego didn’t take any chances. He looked for the takedown early in every round and then as soon as he got the takedown he worked his extremely aggressive and extremely heavy top game.
Based on Gall’s performance against Randy Brown I believe Diego Sanchez is an incredible bet because Sanchez should have no problem putting Gall on his back. Sanchez has legendary cardio, and he’s so active from top position that it makes it very difficult for referees to stand him up. Gall may be a high-level Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu practitioner, but Sanchez’s MMA grappling is lightyears ahead of him.
There is a possibility that Gall catches Sanchez with a flash KO, but aside from that, I see Sanchez taking him down and grinding him out for 3 rounds.
Reasons for betting on Diego Sanchez
Risk Factors with betting on Diego Sanchez
My Betting Tip
Diego Sanchez to win
[2% of your bankroll]
Decimal = 3.80
Moneyline = +380
Fractional = 14/5
The bookies believe that Diego Sanchez has a 26% chance of beating Mickey Gall based on their current odds.