UFC 235 Betting Tips, Picks and Predictions

February turned out to be a decent month because we banked a profit of just over 11 units in total. We’ve now made a profit in 5 out of the last 6 months:

March is shaping up to be our busiest month in a very long time with 5 UFC events and 2 Bellator events taking place in the next 4 weeks.

Last week when I first began to research UFC on ESPN+ 3 I felt it would be great for prefight betting, but in the end, there weren’t many opportunities that I liked. I don’t want to speak too soon again, but initially, I do think UFC 235 looks good for betting. I’ve already locked in one bet that I think is excellent value and I hope to add more in the next few hours and days.

Fight Betting Tip Pick
Anthony Smith vs Jon Jones No bet Jones to win
Kamaru Usman vs Tyron Woodley No bet Usman to win
Cody Garbrandt vs Pedro Munhoz No bet Garbrandt to win
Ben Askren vs Robbie Lawler No bet Lawler to win
Tecia Torres vs Weili Zhang No bet Torres to win
Diego Sanchez vs Mickey Gall 2 units on Diego Sanchez to win at odds of 3.80 | +280 | 14/5 Sanchez to win
Jeremy Stephens vs Zabit Magomedsharipov No bet Stephens to win
Johnny Walker vs Misha Cirkunov 1 unit on Misha Cirkunov to win at odds of 2.60 | +160 | 33/20 Cirkunov to win
Alejandro Perez vs Cody Stamann No bet Stamann to win
Charles Byrd vs Edmen Shahbazyan No bet Shahbazyan to win
Gina Mazany vs Macy Chiasson No bet Chiasson to win
Hannah Cifers vs Polyana Viana No bet Viana to win

Diego Sanchez vs Mickey Gall Betting Tip and Prediction

Win or lose I think that Diego Sanchez is one of the best bets that I have seen in a very long time. The odds make no sense on this fight, and I expect them to decline significantly in the run-up to this fight. I would not even rule out the possibility that so much money comes in on Diego that the odds end up at roughly even money. There is no valid reason why he should be an underdog to Mickey Gall.

To appreciate just how great of a bet Diego Sanchez is, I recommend that you go back and watch Mickey Gall’s fights against Sage Northcutt and Randy Brown. Then go and check out Sanchez’s fights against Craig White and Marcin Held.

Mickey Gall is primarily a Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu based fighter, which means that he is happy to fight off his back where he can attack his opponents with submissions. This is great in BJJ tournaments, but it’s a terrible strategy in MMA, especially when you’re facing someone with such a heavy top game as Sanchez. If you go and checkout Gall’s fight against Randy Brown, you’ll see that he gives up takedowns very easily because he wants to be on his back. When Brown shot in on a single leg, he practically rolled to his back Fabricio Werdum style.

This style of fighting is ok when you’re Demian Maia, but it’s generally not a good idea unless you have an elite level ground game, which Mickey Gall does not have. Gall is actually very ineffective off his back. He struggles to improve his position when on his back and doesn’t seem to know how to work his way back to his feet.

Diego Sanchez built a career off being a wild, exciting brawler, but in recent years all the wars have started to catch up to him, and his chin does not allow him to get sucked into that kind of fight anymore. Diego now looks fragile and slow standing. I am hoping that this won’t be too much of a problem against Gall, who’s striking hasn’t looked at all dangerous up until this point in his career. Gall is currently training with Joe Schilling though so it’s possible that he could be making big improvements to his striking from fight to fight. At 37 years old it’s never going to take much to put Sanchez away if you can land a clean, hard shot.

The good news is that Sanchez has started to understand his limitations and switch up his fighting style to better suit where he is currently at in his career. In his last fight against Craig White, he wasted no time in rushing White, driving him into the cage and taking him down. No reckless exchanges, no unnecessary risks, Diego didn’t take any chances. He looked for the takedown early in every round and then as soon as he got the takedown he worked his extremely aggressive and extremely heavy top game.

Based on Gall’s performance against Randy Brown I believe Diego Sanchez is an incredible bet because Sanchez should have no problem putting Gall on his back. Sanchez has legendary cardio, and he’s so active from top position that it makes it very difficult for referees to stand him up. Gall may be a high-level Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu practitioner, but Sanchez’s MMA grappling is lightyears ahead of him.

There is a possibility that Gall catches Sanchez with a flash KO, but aside from that, I see Sanchez taking him down and grinding him out for 3 rounds.

Reasons for betting on Diego Sanchez

  • Diego Sanchez has excellent cardio. He can relentlessly shoot takedowns and grind on Mickey Gall for 3 rounds easily.
  • Mickey Gall has very bad takedown defense.
  • Mickey Gall gives up easy takedowns because he wants to be on his back.
  • Mickey Gall looks nervous and insecure striking. He turns his head away from his opponent. Turns his back to his opponent and sometimes runs away from them.
  • Mickey Gall is not dangerous striking because he’s nervous about engaging. For this reason he rarely fully commits to his shots.
  • Mickey Gall is very weak off his back. He’s not effective at threatening with submissions and he struggles to improve his position.
  • When he has been taken down, Gall shows no urgency to work his way back to his feet.
  • Diego Sanchez has powerful double leg takedowns.
  • Diego Sanchez has an extremely heavy top game.
  • Diego Sanchez has excellent submission defense.
  • Diego Sanchez has NEVER been submitted in his 39 professional fights.
  • Diego Sanchez can inflict significant damage from top position.

Risk Factors with betting on Diego Sanchez

  • Mickey Gall has a size advantage. He is 6 ft 2, Diego Sanchez is 5 ft 10.
  • Diego Sanchez is now 37 years old and will be declining from fight to fight.
  • Mickey Gall is 27 years old, he should be making big improvements from fight to fight.
  • Mickey Gall does an excellent job of taking his opponents back quickly. He can lock in a rear naked choke very fast.
  • Diego Sanchez is very slow at this stage in his career. His reflexes have gone.
  • Diego Sanchez is very fragile at this stage in his career. His chin has gone.

My Betting Tip

Diego Sanchez to win

Recommended Stake

2 Units

[2% of your bankroll]

Odds

Decimal = 3.80
Moneyline = +380
Fractional = 14/5

26%

Implied Probability

The bookies believe that Diego Sanchez has a 26% chance of beating Mickey Gall based on their current odds.

65%

Our Probability

I believe that Diego Sanchez has a 65% chance of beating Mickey Gall based on my extensive research and analysis.

Allsopp
I'm a Professional Gambler from the UK. I specialize in betting on MMA. I've got 1 kid, a Shih Tzu and I've been making money from gambling for around 8 years now.

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