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UFC Fight Night 109 Betting Tips, Predictions and Picks

UFC Fight Night 109 takes place in Stockholm, Sweden and is headlined by a main event fight between Alexander Gustafsson and Glover Teixeira.

This is a difficult event for betting, not because it’s hard to identify fighters who hold significant advantages over their opponent’s, but moreso because I believe the betting odds are very accurate on most of these fights…

When I research a fight I watch a ton of footage on both fighters and I then try to determine who has the best chance of winning based on what I have seen and based on a few other factors such as size differences, age, injuries, how long since they last fought, home advantage and experience etc. I then calculate the probability that I believe each fighter has of winning and then I use the theory of implied probability to calculate whether the risk of betting on a certain fighter is worth the reward based on the odds for that particular matchup. There are several fighters who I would love to bet on at UFC Fight Night 109, but I cannot pull the trigger because the risk is not worth the reward. As MMA Bettors it is important that we do not place bets in situations where we only have a marginal advantage over the Bookies.

In the lead up to UFC Fight Night 109 I will be monitoring the odds movement at major betting websites on an hourly basis and I may choose to bet on certain fighters if the odds improve to the point where I see value. I am hoping that this will happen on at least one of these matchups, so please keep checking this article regularly for updates.

I also want to remind you that I will be offering my Live Betting Tips for free during UFC Fight Night 109.

Nordicflight was kind enough to go through our Live Betting results over the last year and he calculated that we’ve gone 31-10 on the last 40 events in live betting. This has resulted in a total profit of over 190 units and an average profit of almost 5 units per event. This is an extremely impressive win rate and I expect to continue this success long into the future.

I urge you to join us in our Live Betting Tips Chatroom during UFC Fight Night 109 to take advantage of these FREE betting tips that I have been sharing for over a year. Sometime in the next few weeks I will be reintroducing paid subscriptions, so please take advantage of these tips being free whilst you still can!

Don’t forget to keep checking this article regularly for updates because we’ll be adding more betting tips as we get closer to the time of the event.

FightsBetting Tips
Alexander Gustafsson vs Glover TeixeiraStill researching
Misha Cirkunov vs Volkan OezdemirStill researching
Ben Saunders vs Peter SobottaNo bet
Abdul Razak Alhassan vs Omari AkhmedovNo bet
Alex Nicholson vs Jack HermanssonNo bet
Nordine Taleb vs Oliver EnkampNo bet
Darren Till vs Jessin AyariBetting Tip Available
Damian Stasiak vs Pedro MunhozStill researching
Joaquim Silva vs Reza MadadiNo bet
Chris Camozzi vs Trevor SmithNo bet
Bojan Velickovic vs Nico MusokeBetting Tip Available
Damir Hadzovic vs Marcin HeldNo bet

Betting Tip 1: Darren Till to beat Jessin Ayari

Darren Till is the only fighter competing at UFC Fight Night 109 who I expect to dominate his opponent without being in any danger at any point. The only risk with this bet is that Darren Till is returning to action after an 18 month layoff. If Darren Till shows up and performs to his full potential he should beat Jessin Ayari easily.

Reasons for placing this bet...

  • Darren Till is better than Jessin Ayari in every single aspect of MMA.
  • Darren Till is a Southpaw.
  • Darren Till has good takedown defence, wrestling and Brazilian Jiu Jitsu. His ground game is at a much higher level than Ayari’s.
  • Jessin Ayari is primarily a striker who likes to stay on the outside of the Octagon and counter strike. This means that he gives up the centre of the Octagon to his opponent’s very easily. This fighting style is very flawed because it often means he needs to win by a large margin in order to win a decision on the judges scorecards. The fighter who is on the outside is almost always losing unless they are significantly outlanding their opponent.
  • Jessin Ayari is a striker, but his Boxing is very low level. His fighting style is centered more around kicks. Till has excellent Muay Thai and good Boxing. He is a significantly better striker than Ayari.
  • Darren Till has a good chin and he’s very tough.
  • Darren Till is very well rounded.
  • Jessin Ayari has a passive style of fighting.
  • Jessin Ayari lacks KO power.
  • Jessin Ayari has poor striking defence.
  • Darren Till has excellent distance control and timing.
  • Darren Till throws a much wider range of strikes.

Risk Factors...

  • Darren Till is coming back after an 18 month layoff.
  • Darren Till normally trains in Brazil, but he is training in England for this fight.
  • Darren Till slowed down in the third round of his last fight against Nicolas Dalby.

Our Betting Tip

Darren Till to win

Stake

3.5 Units

[3.5% of your bankroll]

Odds

Decimal = 1.33
Moneyline = -303
Fractional = 33/100

75%

Implied Probability

The bookies believe that Darren Till has a 75% chance of beating Jessin Ayari based on their current odds.

80%

Our Probability

We believe that Darren Till has an 80% chance of beating Jessin Ayari based on our extensive research and analysis.

Betting Tip 2: Bojan Velickovic vs Nico Musoke: Over 2.5 rounds

Bojan Velickovic and Nico Musoke are both tough, they’re both well rounded and they also lack finishing power. This has resulted in 6 out of Musoke’s last 7 fights going the distance and 5 out of Velickovic’s last 6. Both fighters also lack aggression and a killer instinct. All of these factors are the perfect storm required for this fight going to a decision.

The odds on this fight lasting longer than 2.5 rounds vary quite widely between different betting websites so you may need to shop around to lock in your bet at the best odds. Bet365 are currently offering the best value odds at 1.50 | -200 | 1/2, whilst Pinnacle aren’t too far behind at 1.47 | -212 | 47/100. I recommend that you lock in your bet ASAP because the odds on this betting tip will decline very quickly after I publish this post.

Reasons for placing this bet...

  • 6 out of Nico Musoke’s last 7 fights have gone to a decision.
  • 5 out of Velickovic’s last 6 fights have gone to a decision.
  • Both fighters lack aggression and finishing power.
  • Both fighters are tough and well rounded.
  • Both fighters have solid cardio.
  • Bojan Velickovic has good distance management and a very defensive style of fighting. He does not like to engage. These factors make a flash KO a lot less likely.

Risk Factors...

  • This is Nico Musoke’s first fight back in 2 and a half years.
  • Bojan Velickovic is a Southpaw.
  • Anything can happen in MMA.

Our Betting Tip

Over 2.5 rounds

Stake

3 Units

[3% of your bankroll]

Odds

Decimal = 1.47
Moneyline = -212
Fractional = 47/100

68%

Implied Probability

The bookies believe that this fight has a 68% chance of lasting longer than 2.5 rounds based on their current odds.

75%

Our Probability

We believe that this fight has a 75% chance of lasting longer than 2.5 rounds based on our extensive research and analysis.

About Allsopp

Allsopp
I am the owner of this website and my goal is to build a strong community that is focused on helping each other make money betting on MMA.

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