UFC Fight Night 109 takes place in Stockholm, Sweden and is headlined by a main event fight between Alexander Gustafsson and Glover Teixeira.
This is a difficult event for betting, not because it’s hard to identify fighters who hold significant advantages over their opponent’s, but moreso because I believe the betting odds are very accurate on most of these fights…
When I research a fight I watch a ton of footage on both fighters and I then try to determine who has the best chance of winning based on what I have seen and based on a few other factors such as size differences, age, injuries, how long since they last fought, home advantage and experience etc. I then calculate the probability that I believe each fighter has of winning and then I use the theory of implied probability to calculate whether the risk of betting on a certain fighter is worth the reward based on the odds for that particular matchup. There are several fighters who I would love to bet on at UFC Fight Night 109, but I cannot pull the trigger because the risk is not worth the reward. As MMA Bettors it is important that we do not place bets in situations where we only have a marginal advantage over the Bookies.
In the lead up to UFC Fight Night 109 I will be monitoring the odds movement at major betting websites on an hourly basis and I may choose to bet on certain fighters if the odds improve to the point where I see value. I am hoping that this will happen on at least one of these matchups, so please keep checking this article regularly for updates.
I also want to remind you that I will be offering my Live Betting Tips for free during UFC Fight Night 109.
Nordicflight was kind enough to go through our Live Betting results over the last year and he calculated that we’ve gone 31-10 on the last 40 events in live betting. This has resulted in a total profit of over 190 units and an average profit of almost 5 units per event. This is an extremely impressive win rate and I expect to continue this success long into the future.
I urge you to join us in our Live Betting Tips Chatroom during UFC Fight Night 109 to take advantage of these FREE betting tips that I have been sharing for over a year. Sometime in the next few weeks I will be reintroducing paid subscriptions, so please take advantage of these tips being free whilst you still can!
Don’t forget to keep checking this article regularly for updates because we’ll be adding more betting tips as we get closer to the time of the event.
|Alexander Gustafsson vs Glover Teixeira||Still researching|
|Misha Cirkunov vs Volkan Oezdemir||Still researching|
|Ben Saunders vs Peter Sobotta||No bet|
|Abdul Razak Alhassan vs Omari Akhmedov||No bet|
|Alex Nicholson vs Jack Hermansson||No bet|
|Nordine Taleb vs Oliver Enkamp||No bet|
|Darren Till vs Jessin Ayari||Betting Tip Available|
|Damian Stasiak vs Pedro Munhoz||Still researching|
|Joaquim Silva vs Reza Madadi||No bet|
|Chris Camozzi vs Trevor Smith||No bet|
|Bojan Velickovic vs Nico Musoke||Betting Tip Available|
|Damir Hadzovic vs Marcin Held||No bet|
Betting Tip 1: Darren Till to beat Jessin Ayari
Darren Till is the only fighter competing at UFC Fight Night 109 who I expect to dominate his opponent without being in any danger at any point. The only risk with this bet is that Darren Till is returning to action after an 18 month layoff. If Darren Till shows up and performs to his full potential he should beat Jessin Ayari easily.
Reasons for placing this bet...
Our Betting Tip
Darren Till to win
[3.5% of your bankroll]
Decimal = 1.33
Moneyline = -303
Fractional = 33/100
The bookies believe that Darren Till has a 75% chance of beating Jessin Ayari based on their current odds.
We believe that Darren Till has an 80% chance of beating Jessin Ayari based on our extensive research and analysis.
Betting Tip 2: Bojan Velickovic vs Nico Musoke: Over 2.5 rounds
Bojan Velickovic and Nico Musoke are both tough, they’re both well rounded and they also lack finishing power. This has resulted in 6 out of Musoke’s last 7 fights going the distance and 5 out of Velickovic’s last 6. Both fighters also lack aggression and a killer instinct. All of these factors are the perfect storm required for this fight going to a decision.
The odds on this fight lasting longer than 2.5 rounds vary quite widely between different betting websites so you may need to shop around to lock in your bet at the best odds. Bet365 are currently offering the best value odds at 1.50 | -200 | 1/2, whilst Pinnacle aren’t too far behind at 1.47 | -212 | 47/100. I recommend that you lock in your bet ASAP because the odds on this betting tip will decline very quickly after I publish this post.
Reasons for placing this bet...
Our Betting Tip
Over 2.5 rounds
[3% of your bankroll]
Decimal = 1.47
Moneyline = -212
Fractional = 47/100
The bookies believe that this fight has a 68% chance of lasting longer than 2.5 rounds based on their current odds.
We believe that this fight has a 75% chance of lasting longer than 2.5 rounds based on our extensive research and analysis.