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UFC Fight Night 110 Betting Tips, Picks and Predictions

UFC Fight Night 110 has the potential to be a great event for betting with plenty of value up for grabs on several of these fights.

The last few months have been lack lustre for both betting on MMA and also for providing us with entertaining UFC events. I really feel like UFC Fight Night 110 is the event to kick start the year after a rocky transitional period from the UFC’s former Zuffa ownership to WME-IMG.

UFC Fight Night 110 is the first event in a long series of events that look great for betting. I’m really looking forward to helping you make a lot of money over the next few months.

I also want to remind you that I will be offering my Live Betting Tips for free during UFC Fight Night 110.

Nordicflight was kind enough to go through our Live Betting results over the last year and he calculated that we’ve gone 32-11 on the last 43 events in live betting. This has resulted in a total profit of over 190 units and an average profit of almost 5 units per event. This is an extremely impressive win rate and I expect to continue this success long into the future.

I urge you to join us in our Live Betting Tips Chatroom during UFC Fight Night 110 to take advantage of these FREE betting tips that I have been sharing for over a year. Sometime in the next few weeks I will be reintroducing paid subscriptions, so please take advantage of these free tips whilst you still can!

Don’t forget to keep checking this article regularly for updates because we’ll be adding more betting tips as we get closer to the time of the event.

FightsBetting Tips
Derrick Lewis vs Mark HuntBetting Tip Available
Dan Kelly vs Derek BrunsonBetting Tip Available
Dan Hooker vs Ross PearsonNo bet
Ion Cutelaba vs Luis Henrique Da SilvaBetting Tip Available
Ben Nguyen vs Tim ElliottNo bet
Alexander Volkanovski vs Mizuto HirotaNo bet
Damien Brown vs Vinc PichelNo bet
Ashkan Mokhtarian vs John MoragaNo bet
Dominique Steele vs Luke JumeauNo bet
Kiichi Kunimoto vs Zak OttowNo bet
Chan Mi Jeon vs JJ AldrichBetting Tip Available
Dong Hyun Kim vs Thibault GoutiNo bet

Derrick Lewis vs Mark Hunt Betting Tip and Prediction

Trying to predict the outcome of fights like Derrick Lewis vs Mark Hunt is tough because this is one of those matchups where one fighter has so many clear advantages over their opponent, but that still doesn’t necessarily mean that they’ll win…

Derrick Lewis is now 9-2 in the UFC, but if things would have played out slightly differently he could quite easily have lost the majority of those fights…

Just look at his last few matchups as an example. Most recently against Travis Browne, Lewis was on the brink of being finished before dragging victory back from the jaws of defeat with a chaotic flurry that resulted in a KO win. Prior to that he was getting dominated by Shamil Abdurakhimov before finding a finish out of nowhere in the 4th round and before that he was less than a minute away from losing a decision against Roy Nelson before a hail mary uppercut from hell managed to secure him a split decision win. Lewis could quite easily be 0-3 in his last 3 fights, but instead we find him entering this matchup against Mark Hunt with a lot of momentum on his side.

They often say that the difference between wins and losses in Professional sports is a game of inches, so at what point will Lewis run into a situation where his unbreakable will to win is no longer enough to beat the best fighters in the UFC?

If we evaluate Derrick Lewis based purely on his skills, I feel confident in saying that he is not even in the top 30 Heavyweights in the world. There are multiple fighters in smaller MMA promotions who are undoubtedly more skilled than Lewis, but what you cannot teach is toughness, heart and determination and Lewis has an abundance of all of those qualities. What Lewis lacks in skill, he more than makes up for in the X Factors that count so much towards which fighters make it in the UFC and which ones don’t.

When we break Derrick Lewis down from a technical point of view there really aren’t many good things that we can say about him. His skills are low level in all areas. His wrestling is sloppy and ineffective. His ground game is very low level and his stand up is so basic that I find it hard to believe he’ll be able to land even 1 punch on a former K1 Grand Prix Champion like Mark Hunt.

If you go back and watch some of Lewis’ recent fights you’ll see that Mark Hunt is an absolute nightmare matchup for him. Go and watch how easily Travis Browne hurt him with body kicks and then go watch some footage from K1 or Hunt’s last fight against Alistair Overeem and checkout how much force and snap Hunt can generate with his kicks to the body. If Browne was able to curl Lewis up with teeps and front kicks, Hunt should theoretically be able to kick a hole in Lewis’ abdomen.

Then go and watch how Lewis wrecklessly jumps into Abdurakhimov’s Boxing range with wild looping hooks and telegraphed arm punches. Mark Hunt has built a career off making people pay for having such poor technique and Derrick Lewis will be at constant risk of being knocked out unless he significantly tightens everything up.

And whilst many people will point to Lewis’ “grappling” as a path to victory in this fight, you only have to go and watch how he struggled to control a super low level grappler on the ground like Ruan Potts to see that Lewis doesn’t really have a grappling advantage in this fight at all.

Hunt’s one weakness in his MMA career has been his grappling, but over the years he has shown a strong ability to defend takedowns and scramble back to his feet against some of the strongest wrestlers and BJJ practitioners in the history of the UFC’s Heavyweight division. Hunt made Brock Lesnar work extremely hard for takedowns less than a year ago. Lesnar was juiced up for that fight and is a former NCAA Div 1 wrestler. Hunt also showed an ability to scramble back to his feet against Fabricio Werdum, who has some of the best Brazilian Jiu Jitsu and top control in the history of the UFC.

Fighters like Derrick Lewis have proven over the years that an unbreakable will can help them achieve a good amount of success, but at what point do they hit a wall? At what point do they find themselves in a situation where they need the skills to back it up?

Mark Hunt has one of the best chins in the history of the Heavyweight division. He is also extremely tough and he’s an extremely skilled fighter. Lewis has youth, confidence and momentum on his side, but I can’t help but feel that this is the fight where those X Factors are not going to be enough. In many ways this fight reminds me of the time when Paige VanZant fought Rose Namajunas. PVZ had all the X Factors on her side going into the matchup, but in the end her skills were just nowhere near the level that they needed to be to compete against an opponent with far superior technique.

I’m not going to go too big on this bet because you can never count out a fighter like Derrick Lewis, but in reality he has little more than a puncher’s chance of winning. At underdog odds Mark Hunt is an automatic bet for me. The most likely outcome in this fight is Hunt winning by walk off KO.

Reasons for betting on Mark Hunt to beat Derrick Lewis...

  • Mark Hunt is a significantly better striker than Derrick Lewis.
  • Derrick Lewis does not possess the level of wrestling or Brazilian Jiu Jitsu required to exploit Mark Hunt’s weaknesses on the ground.
  • Mark Hunt has home advantage on his side.
  • Derrick Lewis has extremely poor striking defence. He doesn’t utilize any footwork or head movement.
  • Derrick Lewis is a very basic, low level striker. He doesn’t utilize any footwork, feints or head movement. He also telegraphs everything that he does. A high level KickBoxer like Mark Hunt should easily be able to read Lewis’ movements and either counter him or circle away from danger.
  • Mark Hunt has some of the best timing and accuracy in the history of the UFC’s Heavyweight division. Lewis wrecklessly jumps into his opponent’s Boxing range with wild punches. Hunt should be able to read this movement and counter him with KO strikes.
  • Mark Hunt does a great job of setting traps. His opponent’s fear his power so you’ll notice that he deliberately fights at a slow pace and he’s always moving and feinting. Everytime he feints, his opponent will react with movement and Hunt is an expert at reading this movement. After a few minutes of reading their reactions to his feints, Hunt starts to time them and lay traps. Some of Hunt’s most devastating highlight reel knockouts have been achieved because he delivered fight ending strikes by setting traps with feints earlier.
  • Mark Hunt has KO power in every strike.
  • Derrick Lewis is flat footed and slow.
  • Mark Hunt is a master at controlling the distance. He should be able to spot Derrick Lewis gearing up to attack and simply circle out of danger.

Risk factors with betting on Mark Hunt to win...

  • Derrick Lewis is 11 years younger than Mark Hunt. Mark Hunt is now 43 years old and likely to be on a very steep decline.
  • Derrick Lewis has a 7 inch reach advantage.
  • Derrick Lewis is extremely tough and has an unbreakable will to win.
  • Derrick Lewis has devastating KO power.
  • Mark Hunt could fade fast if Lewis can take this fight to the ground.

Our Betting Tip

Mark Hunt to win

Stake

3 Units

[3% of your bankroll]

Odds

Decimal = 2.01
Moneyline = +101
Fractional = 101/100

50%

Implied Probability

The bookies believe that Mark Hunt has a 50% chance of beating Derrick Lewis based on their current odds.

70%

Our Probability

We believe that Mark Hunt has a 70% chance of beating Derrick Lewis based on our extensive research and analysis.

Derek Brunson vs Dan Kelly Betting Tip and Prediction

Trying to predict the outcome of the fight between Derek Brunson and Dan Kelly presents many of the same challenges that we face when trying to predict the outcome of the fight between Derrick Lewis and Mark Hunt.

On one hand you have a young, powerful, strong, well rounded fighter in Derek Brunson and on the other hand you have Dan Kelly, a fighter who is not particularly great at any aspect of MMA, but a fighter who has achieved a good amount of success by refusing to lose.

Derrick Lewis and Dan Kelly are two fighters who have performed above themselves for a long time now. In terms of skill, neither fighter should be in their current position in the UFC, but toughness, heart and an unbreakable will to win have seen them achieve great things.

Unfortunately, all good things come to an end and whilst Derrick Lewis’ abnormal power make him a considerable threat for any man on earth, Kelly doesn’t possess that kind of 1 punch KO power that could make him dangerous against a well rounded opponent such as Derek Brunson.

This is one of those situations where I feel a fighter’s toughness has carried them as far as they can go. I will be truly shocked if Dan Kelly can take his career to the next level by beating a legitimate top 10 contender like Derek Brunson.

I’m not saying that Derek Brunson is perfect. His striking technique is a little sloppy, sometimes his wrestling is stiff and robotic and I’m still concerned by his wrecklessness, but in this particular matchup I’ve seen nothing in past performances that suggests that Dan Kelly can make him pay for these weaknesses…

Kelly doesn’t have the power or speed to hurt Brunson in the striking exchanges. He’s not capable of competing with him in the grappling exchanges and a flash KO or submission are extremely unlikely. For these reasons I find it hard to see a realistic scenario in which Kelly wins this fight.

I will always feel nervous when I bet against a fighter like Dan Kelly, who has such a strong, unbreakable will to win, but at the same time I have to remain balanced and realistic in my assessment of how a fight is most likely to play out. The fact is that Brunson is faster, stronger, younger, more athletic and also more skilled in every single aspect of MMA. At the current odds of around 1.40 | -250 | 2/5, Brunson is a very good bet.

If Kelly somehow finds a way to win I won’t be surprised, but at the same time I do feel comfortable in saying that based on my research it is highly improbable. Derek Brunson has all the skills required to dominate this fight. Whether he does or not will likely depend on his ability to fight smart and keep his composure against a tough veteran who will try his best to push him to breaking point.

Reasons for betting on Derek Brunson to beat Dan Kelly...

  • Derek Brunson is significantly better than Dan Kelly in every single aspect of MMA.
  • Derek Brunson has an 8 inch reach advantage over Dan Kelly.
  • Derek Brunson is 6 years younger than Dan Kelly.
  • Dan Kelly is 39 years old. Statistically this means that his body is currently on a very steep decline.
  • Dan Kelly has very poor striking defence. His reaction times and reflexes are very slow.
  • Dan Kelly doesn’t have the footwork or head movement required to avoid Brunson’s fast power strikes.
  • Derek Brunson is a former NCAA Div 2 wrestler. He is the only fighter who I have ever seen be able to take Lorenz Larkin down and control him on the ground. He was also able to briefly take Yoel Romero down and control him on the ground. In theory Brunson should be able to dominate this fight with his strong wrestling.
  • Dan Kelly has a severely injured knee which makes it difficult for him to defend takedowns.
  • Derek Brunson has legitimate one punch KO power.
  • Derek Brunson is significantly faster than Dan Kelly.

Risk factors with betting on Derek Brunson...

  • Derek Brunson has a tendency to get sucked into wreckless exchanges.
  • Dan Kelly is a 4 time Judo Olympian.
  • Dan Kelly has home advantage. (Kind of… Kelly is from Australia, this fight is taking place in New Zealand)
  • Dan Kelly is extremely tough and has an unbreakable will to win.
  • The crowd will really get behind Kelly and will him on to win. This can have a big adverse impact on the performance of his opponent’s.

Our Betting Tip

Derek Brunson to win

Stake

3.5 Units

[3.5% of your bankroll]

Odds

Decimal = 1.40
Moneyline = -250
Fractional = 2/5

71%

Implied Probability

The bookies believe that Derek Brunson has a 71% chance of beating Dan Kelly based on their current odds.

80%

Our Probability

We believe that Derek Brunson has an 80% chance of beating Dan Kelly based on our extensive research and analysis.

Henrique Da Silva vs Ion Cutelaba Betting Tip and Prediction

Ion Cutelaba is the exact type of fighter that I love to bet on because he’s tough, well rounded and aggressive. From the moment the fight starts, Cutelaba is on a mission to break his opponent. He is constantly coming forward and he is relentless in his attacks.

At just 23 years old, Cutelaba still has plenty of weaknesses, but he makes up for these weaknesses with heart and toughness. Henrique Da Silva is a fighter who tends to gas out within 2-3 minutes and I’ve also seen him quit in some of his past fights.

Cutelaba should easily win this fight by being tougher and more aggressive. Da Silva may have some success in round 1 due to Cutelaba’s poor striking defence, but after that Cutelaba should go on to dominate because Da Silva does not have the cardio he’ll need to keep up with the pace that Cutelaba will set over 3 rounds.

Reasons for betting on Ion Cutelaba to beat Henrique Da Silva...

  • Henrique Da Silva has some of the worst takedown defence in the UFC’s Light Heavyweight division. Ion Cutelaba has a background in Greco Roman wrestling and does a great job of mixing up his striking with takedowns. Cutelaba is also able to land a significant amount of damage from top position with ground and pound. Cutelaba should easily be able to take Da Silva down and dominate the fight from top position.
  • Henrique Da Silva has extremely poor cardio and he has been known to quit in fights.
  • Ion Cutelaba is very tough and very aggressive. He has a great chin.
  • Ion Cutelaba fights at a very high pace.
  • Ion Cutelaba never gives his opponent a second to breathe or get comfortable. He constantly comes forward launching attacks.
  • Henrique Da Silva does not possess the kind of 1 punch KO power that you need in order to stop someone like Cutelaba.
  • Ion Cutelaba appears to be very consistent.
  • Cutelaba appears to be making significant improvements from fight to fight.

Risk factors with betting on Ion Cutelaba...

  • Ion Cutelaba has poor striking defence.
  • Ion Cutelaba’s fighting style is a sprint, which means he does slow down in the third round.
  • Ion Cutelaba has poor fight IQ.
  • Ion Cutelaba is wreckless.

Our Betting Tip

Ion Cutelaba to win

Stake

3.5 Units

[3.5% of your bankroll]

Odds

Decimal = 1.53
Moneyline = -189
Fractional = 53/100

65%

Implied Probability

The bookies believe that Ion Cutelaba has a 65% chance of beating Henrique Da Silva based on their current odds.

80%

Our Probability

We believe that Ion Cutelaba has an 80% chance of beating Henrique Da Silva based on our extensive research and analysis.

Chan Mi Jeon vs JJ Aldrich Betting Tip and Prediction

This fight is a Wikicappers dream because the MMA records of both fighters suggest that this should be an easy win for JJ Aldrich.

I would never recommend placing a bet based solely on the win / loss record of a fighter, but in the case of Chan Mi Jeon it is very tempting…

Jeon is a 19 year old South Korean fighter who is stepping up to take this fight on less than 2 week’s notice. Her 5-0 record might look impressive on paper, but if you dig a little deeper you’ll see that 4 of those wins came against fighters who were 0-0. All 4 of those fighters share one thing in common in that they have NEVER won a pro MMA fight. Her most recent win came against a 45 year old woman who had a Pro MMA record of 19-22. This in itself is bad, but it’s made worse by the fact that the 45 year old returned to action after a 3 year layoff to face Jeon. Even more alarming is the fact that she was on a 7 fight losing streak going into her fight against Jeon.

Chan Mi Jeon’s MMA record clearly shows that up until this point in her career she has only gained a very limited amount of experience competing against a very low level of opponent. Aldrich on the other hand has completed several training camps at excellent MMA gyms in Colorado with high level fighters such as Rose Namajunas and Valentina Shevchenko. She has also done an intense 6 week camp on the Ultimate Fighter with Joanna Jędrzejczyk as her coach where she is bound to have learned a lot.

Studying footage of Chan Mi Jeon also confirms that this should be a very tough fight for her. Here’s one of her recent fights from back in September 2016:

As you can see, Jeon has wreckless striking with no real head movement or footwork and her grappling and clinch work could land her in a whole heap of trouble against a solid, well rounded fighter like Aldrich. Take a look at how she gave up her back with a lazy head and arm throw in the first 60 seconds of that fight. She also spent way too long defending submission attempts. A sharper, more skilled opponent would have easily taken her back or locked in an armbar…

Women’s MMA is random, unpredictable and much riskier to bet on than Men’s MMA, but I can’t get away from a bet on Aldrich at the current odds. All things considered, she should win easily.

Reasons for betting on JJ Aldrich to beat Chan-Mi Jeon...

  • JJ Aldrich is significantly better than Chan-Mi Jeon in every single aspect of MMA.
  • JJ Aldrich is a Southpaw.
  • JJ Aldrich has very good takedown defence and she does a great job of scrambling back to her feet when she does get taken down.
  • JJ Aldrich is very well rounded. She has good wrestling, good BJJ and good striking.
  • JJ Aldrich has very good Boxing. Her footwork, head movement and striking technique is definitely above average for the UFC’s Strawweight division.
  • Chan-Mi Jeon is stepping up to make her UFC debut on less than 2 week’s notice.
  • Chan-Mi Jeon has only ever fought an extremely low level of opponent.
  • Chan-Mi Jeon gives up position in very dangerous situations.
  • Chan-Mi Jeon has low level technique in all areas.
  • JJ Aldrich has the skills to dominate Jeon wherever the fight goes.

Risk factors with betting on JJ Aldrich...

  • Chan-Mi Jeon is very aggressive.
  • Judges in New Zealand are historically very bad.
  • Female MMA fighters tend to be a lot more inconsistent than Male MMA fighters. There’s always an increased risk that a female fighter we bet on won’t “show up”.

Our Betting Tip

JJ Aldrich to win

Stake

3 Units

[3% of your bankroll]

Odds

Decimal = 1.48
Moneyline = -208
Fractional = 12/25

68%

Implied Probability

The bookies believe that JJ Aldrich has a 68% chance of beating Chan-Mi Jeon based on their current odds.

75%

Our Probability

We believe that JJ Aldrich has a 75% chance of beating Chan-Mi Jeon based on our extensive research and analysis.

Allsopp
I am the owner of this website and my goal is to build a strong community that is focused on helping each other make money betting on MMA.

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