UFC Fight Night 122 Betting Tips, Picks and Predictions

UFC Fight Night 122 is packed full of unknown fighters which means that we may get some excellent opportunities to make money because the bookies will Wikicap these fights and the casual betting public won’t know enough about these fighters to correct the lines.

We tend to perform very well on these small UFC Fight Night cards, so I am confident that our in-depth research will enable us to bank a solid profit.

Kelvin Gastelum vs Michael Bisping Betting Tip and Prediction

I’ve received a lot of Emails and Private Messages about the fight between Kelvin Gastelum and Michael Bisping since the odds were first released on all major International Betting Websites on Monday. As a result, I thought it would be a good idea to post an official Betting Tip early instead of making you wait until closer to the time it takes place.

Usually, I wouldn’t release a betting tip this early because the betting limits this far in advance of a fight are typically very low, but today I was surprised to find that I was able to bet a few thousand dollars on Kelvin Gastelum to win. All I had to do was spread my stake across a few different websites. I was also surprised to see a couple of the major Betting Exchanges taking bets on Kelvin Gastelum with a few hundred dollars in liquidity. I also noticed that I did not significantly move the line when I placed my bets, which means it is currently possible to bet a good amount of money on Gastelum to win.

As you are probably aware, the odds on Kelvin Gastelum will most likely decline significantly over the next week, so I recommend locking in this bet as soon as possible.

Kelvin Gastelum has been the benefactor of some very generous matchmaking in recent years, which has enabled him to pick up several impressive wins over big name fighters who were once considered to be some of the best fighters in the world.

Gastelum still has a lot of holes in his overall skill set, but Michael Bisping does not have the skills to expose them. Chris Weidman highlighted the fact Gastelum’s ground game is still super low level, but that doesn’t matter here because Bisping never goes for takedowns and even if he did, Gastelum might be better on the ground.

Gastelum is young, aggressive, tough and he has cardio for days. These kinds of skills are always tricky for older fighters to deal with and a 38-year-old Bisping is going to struggle to compete with Gastelum’s fast hands and dynamic movement.

Michael Bisping is a warrior, but he hasn’t looked good for a very long time now. The last time we saw him look sharp was 3 years ago when he fought Cung Le. He’s been on a hell of a run since then, but his win/loss record in recent years has not been reflective of his skill level.

Since fighting Cung Le he has been dominated by Luke Rockhold in Australia, then he had a tough fight against CB Dollaway in a matchup where he got dropped and badly hurt a couple of times. He then barely edged Thales Leites, winning a split decision in a fight I thought that he lost. He then fought Anderson Silva in a strange matchup where Anderson basically beat himself. Bisping then stepped up on short notice against Luke Rockhold and scored a flash KO to win the Middleweight title. Since then Bisping has looked slow and jaded in matchups against Dan Henderson and George St-Pierre.

If you go back and watch all of these fights, you’ll notice that Michael Bisping looked bad in all of them. You’ll also notice that he got rocked or dropped against Luke Rockhold [1st fight], CB Dollaway, Anderson Silva, Dan Henderson, George St-Pierre and even Thales Leites managed to wobble him.

Michael Bisping is a great fighter, but Father Time has been knocking on the door for a while. His toughness and heart have managed to carry him over the last three years, but all good things must come to an end. Kelvin Gastelum is faster, sharper, more durable and hits much harder. Bisping has suffered a lot of Brain Trauma over the last few years, and his chin is starting to show signs that he can’t take a punch anymore. Getting rocked or dropped in all your fights is unsustainable, and Gastelum is faster, hits harder and has sharper Boxing technique than anyone Bisping has faced in recent years.

Michael Bisping is a legend of the sport, but this is a perfect stylistic matchup for Gastelum. Bisping doesn’t have the power to hurt Gastelum standing up or the wrestling and ground game to cause him problems like others have in the past.

Bisping prides himself on being able to outwork his opponents, but that won’t happen here because Gastelum’s cardio is excellent and he can fight at a very high pace.

Aside from another freak flash KO I don’t give Michael Bisping any chance of winning this fight.

Reasons for betting on Kelvin Gastelum

Li Jingliang vs Zak Ottow Betting Tip and Prediction

Every time I research Li Jingliang I get more and more impressed by how good he is. His Boxing is at a much higher level than what you’d usually see in MMA, and he has become incredibly difficult to take down.

It’s rare that you see a fighter this skilled come out of a country like China because there are very few gyms where he can develop that level of skill. Li Jingliang entered the UFC as a Boxer, but over the last few years, he has become a well-rounded fighter who could make a push for a top 15 ranking if he could just fight a little more tactically.

Skill for skill Li Jingliang should beat Zak Ottow easily, but his chaotic style of fighting and questionable fight IQ always adds an element of risk when you bet on him. Despite this additional risk, I still feel like he’s a good bet because I personally feel like he should be closer to a 1.40 | -250 | 2/5 favorite. This means that we are getting
a good amount of value on him at the current odds of 1.57 | -175 | 57/100.

Standing up Jingliang should put on a striking clinic, but Ottow can cause him problems if he can get Jingliang on the ground. Fortunately for us, Jingliang has excellent takedown defense, and Ottow doesn’t have very good offensive wrestling.

It’s possible that this fight could go to the ground if Ottow capitalizes on a mistake that Jingliang makes, but if Jingliang brings his A game, he should be able to stuff Ottow’s takedown attempts relatively easily.

It’s also worth noting that Jingliang is an absolute warrior with an iron chin, a heart the size of a skyscraper and a gas tank that never runs out of fuel. He also refuses to quit, and his submission defense is surprisingly good. Win or lose, Jingliang will always go out on his shield and I love betting on guys like that because they always show up and perform to their full potential.

Li Jingliang is a highly skilled fighter, who up until now has flown under the radar. He is improving at a rapid rate, and Ottow is a perfect stylistic matchup for him. With home advantage on his side and the majority of the Chinese fans coming out to see him in the Co-Main event, I expect him to put on an impressive performance and steal the show.

Reasons for betting on Li Jingliang

Chase Sherman vs Shamil Abdurakhimov Betting Tip and Prediction

Chase Sherman has terrible striking defense, which is usually a career killer in the UFC’s Heavyweight division where it only takes one shot to end a fight. Most of his past performances resemble Homer Simpson Boxing because of his inability to block punches. Fortunately for Sherman, he is blessed with a rock solid chin, and he is also incredibly tough. For a Heavyweight he also has excellent cardio.

Sherman gets hit a lot, but he can take it, and he’s tough enough to fight through adversity if he gets put into bad positions. His only two losses in the UFC have come against elite strikers in Walt Harris and Justin Ledet.

Shamil Abdurakhimov is a passive, inactive fighter who tries to steal rounds with cage control and by catching kicks and turning them into takedowns. He is primarily a grappler, but he is not athletic enough to shoot in deep enough on his opponent’s hips to take them down with traditional wrestling based takedowns. This means that Abdurakhimov often struggles to take his opponent’s down. Chase Sherman has solid takedown defense and a strong base. For this reason, Abdurakhimov will find it very difficult to take him down. Even when Abdurakhimov does get a takedown, he doesn’t have very strong top control, so Sherman should easily be able to scramble back to his feet if he does end up on the ground.

Chase Sherman is a young fighter who is currently training at Jackson Wink MMA and he’s making huge improvements from fight to fight. His only weakness is his striking defense, but Abdurakhimov doesn’t have the technique or power to make him pay for that weakness. Abdurakhimov also does not possess the athleticism to take Sherman down and control him on the ground, so this fight should be contested standing up.

In a stand-up fight, I expect Sherman to win easily. At underdog odds he is a great bet. I’d personally cap him closer to a 1.60 | -167 | 3/5 favorite.

Reasons for betting on Chase Sherman