UFC 228 was disappointing as we ended up breaking even after going 1-2 on prefight bets. Had things played out slightly differently we could have banked a big profit, but again luck wasn’t on our side.
Our first loss came in the fight between Jarred Brooks and Roberto Sanchez. Sanchez showed that he should never have been that big of an underdog after using his strong grappling to win round 1 comfortably. Unfortunately, he then self-destructed in rounds 2 and 3, repeatedly pulling guard and making no attempt to improve his position or get back to his feet. Sanchez’s bad fight IQ cost us a win, but I was hopeful that the judges would have thrown us a lifeline when I saw the split decision graphic pop up on the broadcast. Brooks won the fight clear, and it should never have been a split decision, but it sure would have been nice to be on the right side of a robbery for once.
The split decision loss on Roberto Sanchez now means we go 1-10 on the last 11 split decisions. Our only win on the previous 11 split decisions was a Live Bet on Henry Cejudo to beat Demetrious Johnson. I’m not complaining about the loss on Sanchez because the judges got it right, it’s just frustrating that we lose when our money is in a strong position, and we never get robberies go in our favor. Hopefully, our luck will change soon. Right now I am taking confidence in the fact that over the last few months we have been floating around break even, and our results would be looking very different had we won just half of the split decisions that we have lost.
Our second losing bet was the over 1.5 rounds in the fight between Byrd and Stewart. This fight appeared to be cruising towards the 7.5-minute mark as both guys repeatedly tried to control each other in the clinch. Unfortunately, around the 6.5-minute point in the fight, Byrd started to let his hands go. In reaction, Stewart bit down on his mouthpiece and fired back and ended up getting a finish. Our bet was just 15 seconds away from winning.
I’m not too disappointed by this loss because our record on bets like this is fantastic this year, but it’s annoying to miss out on a decent profit by just 15 seconds. We are now 10-2 on over bets in 2018 thanks to our bet on the over in the fight between Brandon Davis and Zabit Magomedsharipov winning.
Live Betting ended up being a total non starter with 8 out of the 9 fights eligible for Live Betting ending inside the distance. The majority of these fights also ended in the 1st round or early in the 2nd. This led to very few opportunities to Live Bet, so we ended up not placing a single Live bet all night.
The recent run of bad luck where we have lost 10 out of the last 11 split decisions has contributed to us floating around the break-even point since April, which has felt like a long time because of numerous breaks in the UFC schedule.
It’s important to remember that the current dry patch is nothing new. We have been through this many times in our 5 year history. Take a look at our Live Betting results chart below and see for yourself. If we keep putting our money in strong positions, I am confident that the profits will start to come. You just have to hang in there and stay consistent. Don’t be tempted to force bets. Don’t be tempted to place bets just for the sake of it. I have been through this many times before, and Spring always follows Winter.
I also want to remind you that it’s important to have these dry patches because they can lead to huge profits further down the line. If you constantly win on your betting accounts, they will get shut down very fast. If you float around break even for a long time, you can keep your account open much longer and make much more money in the long term.
Some of my biggest profits have come after my worst losing streaks because betting sites think you’re a muppet when you float around break even for a long time or make a lot of losses. Experienced members of our community will appreciate these flat periods because the pot of gold at the end of the Rainbow is worth waiting for.
As an example; Most betting accounts on most betting websites will be shut down after you earn £1000 – £3000 in profit. But you can earn £5000 to £30,000 on an account if your account has recorded a loss or floated around break even for a long time. Hang in there, and I guarantee that the money you earn will be worth the wait.
UFC Fight Night 136 is an event packed full of heavy favorites. I can’t remember the last time I saw this many huge favorites on a UFC card. Initially, I was hopeful that I’d be able to uncover some undervalued gems and take a gamble on some big underdogs, but after completing my research on the majority of fights, there are no underdogs that I think have a legit shot of winning. We might see a couple of upsets, but predicting where the upsets will come is a complete crapshoot.
Unfortunately, UFC Fight Night 136 is taking place during the day in Europe, which means the Prelims will not be televised. This means that we will probably only have Live Betting for the 4 main card fights, since the major betting sites only accept Live Bets on televised fights.
UFC Fight Night 136 is the second event in this packed Autumn / Winter UFC schedule, and I feel confident that we can make a solid profit from our bets. Please take some time to leave a comment, post in the forum thread or stop by and give your opinions in the Chat Room on how you think these fights will play out.
|Alexei Oleinik vs Mark Hunt||2 units on Mark Hunt to win at odds of 1.83 | -120 | 83/100||Hunt to win|
|Jan Blachowicz vs Nikita Krylov||No bet||Krylov to win|
|Andrei Arlovski vs Shamil Abdurakhimov||1 unit on Andrei Arlovski to win at odds of 2.30 | +130 | 13/10||Arlovski to win|
|Alexey Kunchenko vs Thiago Alves||No bet||Kunchenko to win|
|CB Dolloway vs Khalid Murtazaliev||No bet||Murtazaliev to win|
|Jin Soo Son vs Petr Yan||No bet||Yan to win|
|Kajan Johnson vs Rustam Khabilov||No bet||Khabilov to win|
|Desmond Green vs Mairbek Taisumov||3 unit, 2 leg parlay accumulator on Mairbek Taisumov and Ramazan Emeev to win at odds of 1.47 |
-213 | 47/100
|Emeev and Taisumov to win|
|Ramazan Emeev vs Stefan Sekulic|
|Magomed Ankalaev vs Marcin Prachnio||No bet||Ankalaev to win|
|Adam Yandiev vs Jordan Johnson||4 units on Jordan Johnson to win at odds of 1.43 | -233 | 43/100||Johnson to win|
|Merab Dvalishvili vs Terrion Ware||No bet||Dvalishvili to win|
Desmond Green vs Mairbek Taisumov Betting Tip and Prediction
All eyes are on Khabib Nurmagomedov in the UFC’s Lightweight division, but Mairbek Taisumov is another 155 pound Russian, who I believe has the skills required to be a World Champion someday soon.
Taisumov has been a money train for us since he arrived in the UFC. Over the last 4 years, we’ve bet on Taisumov 4 times for a total profit of 12.67 units.
Taisumov’s career has been slow to get going so far due to Visa issues which have prevented him from competing outside of Russia and also because the UFC have slow rolled him up until now. In the past, the UFC have been reluctant to give Taisumov a step up in competition, possibly because they don’t like the idea of a Russian who can’t speak English blowing through the top 10 of their division. I firmly believe that if you matched Taisumov up against top 10 Lightweights right now, he’d probably beat most of them. Des Green isn’t a ranked opponent, but he is a notable matchup who should get Taisumov one step closer to where he deserves to be, and that’s with a top 5 ranking next to his name.
Desmond Green is a well-rounded fighter who lacks KO power and conviction in his strikes. His main strength is his NCAA Div 1 level wrestling. Green’s wrestling would be a dangerous weapon against most guys in the division, except he lacks the cardio to use it for more than 1 round. Green has always had issues with his cardio, and he’s going to struggle to keep up with the pace that Taisumov sets.
If this fight stays standing, I expect Taisumov to utterly destroy Green. At some point in this fight, it’s likely that Green will be able to get Taisumov down, but Taisumov does a great job of popping back up to his feet quickly. This will cause Green to get tired even faster. Taisumov has trained extensively with the Russian and Turkish Olympic wrestling teams, so by the end of the fight; I believe there’s a good chance that Taisumov could be the one that out-grapples Green.
I am incredibly high on Mairbek Taisumov because I firmly believe he’s one of the best Lightweights in the World. I expect him to maul Desmond Green. Hopefully, they finally give him a top 10 opponent for his next fight.
Reasons for betting on Mairbek Taisumov
Risk Factors with betting on Mairbek Taisumov
Ramazan Emeev vs Stefan Sekulic Betting Tip and Prediction
Stefan Sekulic is making his UFC debut at UFC Fight Night 136, and he has his hands full with Ramazan Emeev. Emeev is one of those tough Dagestani Russians who appears to be good at everything with no weaknesses. He has high level striking, good cardio, a solid chin, strong wrestling, a technical ground game and he’s basically impossible to take down.
This fight is made even more difficult for Sekulic because he is taking this fight on just 10 days notice. Sekulic is also taking this fight just 14 months after snapping his leg, Anderson Silva style on the regional circuit in Serbia. Fighters are rarely the same after this kind of injury. Silva was never the same, Tyrone Spong was never the same, and it ended the career Corey Hill. Spong and Silva had large resources that they could use to bounce back from this type of injury, and they never even came close to reaching the level they were at before they broke their leg. I doubt a journeyman MMA fighter competing on the regional circuit in Serbia will have received the best medical treatment and rehabilitation. If this injury had a big impact on the careers of Silva and Spong, there’s a very good chance it will have a big impact on Sekulic’s performances too. Here is the moment in one of his recent fights where he breaks his leg:
Here is the full fight:
Here are some more of Sekulic’s recent fights:
As you can see in his past fights, Sekulic is reasonably good at everything, but Emeev is significantly better everywhere.
If the fight stays standing, Emeev should be able to pick Sekulic apart with his superior speed and technique. On the ground is where Emeev shines. He has strong wrestling with vicious ground and pound that he uses to inflict significant damage from top position. From what I have seen in his past fights I do not believe that Sekulic has the takedown defense to keep this fight standing.
The odds are seriously stacked against Sekulic in this matchup for a reason. He is second best to Emeev everywhere. With Emeev possessing great cardio and a solid chin, I don’t see any path to victory for Sekulic. Emeev should win easily.
Reasons for betting on Ramazan Emeev
Risk Factors with betting on Ramazan Emeev
My Betting Tip
2 Fight Parlay Accumulator: Emeev and Taisumov to win
[3% of your bankroll]
Decimal = 1.47
Moneyline = -213
Fractional = 47/100
The bookies believe that Mairbek Taisumov and Ramazan Emeev have a 68% chance of winning based on their current odds.
Adam Yandiev vs Jordan Johnson Betting Tip and Prediction
Adam Yandiev is not the kind of guy you usually see competing in the UFC. He would be much better suited to a KSW event because he’s a charismatic character, he’s roided up, and he’s absolutely terrible at MMA. I haven’t been able to try and find too much information on him, but it appears that he is some kind of Celebrity in Russia. He doesn’t train full time. Instead, he claims to be a businessman that competes in MMA on the side because fighting is “in his blood.”
In 2016, Yandiev made worldwide mainstream news when his Lamborghini was involved in an accident, killing one person and injuring multiple others. Click here to learn more about what happened.
Yandiev has a colorful past that involves being involved in Fight Fixing scandals and a Public Shootout. He is the son of a wealthy businessman in Russia. He was actually accused of fixing his last fight. You can take a look at it below. It definitely looks a little fishy:
As you can see, Yandiev likes to come out of the gate very hard before inevitably gassing hard. I don’t know how he has managed to get signed by the UFC, but I am guessing it has something to do with the fact that his family have invested in M1 Global. M1 Global are a Russian MMA promotion that are co-promoting UFC Fight Night 136. Yandiev has fought for M1 many times in the past and being a wealthy businessman it’s possible that he might have bought his way into the UFC. I’m sure a scrap with a World Class fighter in the UFC is on the bucket list of plenty of Lambo driving, roided up Russian Millionaires.
Jordan Johnson is a strong wrestler and training partner of Ryan Bader. He also has reasonably good striking, good cardio and he’s tough. Yandiev loves to grapple, which makes this a good matchup for Johnson because he’s light years ahead of Yandiev when it comes to wrestling.
I’m not saying that Jordan Johnson is a complete lock because Yandiev does come out the gate very aggressive and he looks like a powerful guy. I expect Yandiev to give Johnson 2-3 minutes of hell, but after that, it seems like he’s going to gas hard and probably give up an easy submission. In that 2-3 minutes it’s possible that Yandiev could catch Johnson with something big, but for a 43% return on our money, at the current odds, I think the risk is worth the reward.
Yandiev hasn’t fought in 3 years, so god knows why he thinks the first ever UFC event in Russia is a good time to make his comeback. He is certainly an interesting character, but Johnson should easily be able to blow through him. Learn more about his colorful past by clicking here.
Reasons for betting on Jordan Johnson
Risk Factors with betting on Jordan Johnson
My Betting Tip
Jordan Johnson to win
[4% of your bankroll]
Decimal = 1.43
Moneyline = -233
Fractional = 43/100
The bookies believe that Jordan Johnson has an 70% chance of beating Adam Yandiev based on their current odds.
Andrei Arlovski vs Shamil Abdurakhimov Betting Tip and Prediction
All week I’ve been watching the odds improve on Andrei Arlovski, which is kind of crazy because there’s no way he should be an underdog to a guy like Shamil Abdurakhimov. This is not going to be an easy fight for Arlovski, but there’s definite value in his current odds of around 2.30 | +130 | 13/10. The current implied probability in Arlovski’s odds is 43%, which is insane because I think he should be the favorite in this matchup.
Shamil Abdurakhimov is reasonably good everywhere, but he’s one of those tentative, passive Russians that has no urgency. For whatever reason, he will not let his hands go. The vast majority of Abdurakhimov’s fights end up being close because his output is very low. He is more than happy to get into a 15-minute staring contest, and he doesn’t seem to want to switch it up when it’s clear that he’s falling behind on the judge’s scorecards.
Abdurakhimov’s passive style of fighting is the reason why I recommend betting on Arlovski at underdog odds. In the last couple of years, we’ve seen Arlovski go blow for blow with young, hungry Wolves like Tai Tuivasa and Junior Albini. He’s 39 years old now, so naturally he’s going to slow down a bit as the fight progresses, but for the most part, his cardio and output remains good for the entire duration of a matchup.
At 39 years old Arlovski still has a good chin and good cardio. He also appears to be making some improvements since moving to American Top Team. I only have two concerns with betting him in this fight…
The first concern is that Arlovski has made a few critical errors in his past few fights. He pulled guard one time against Tuivasa, and he went for a couple of high risk, low reward throws against Stefan Struve. Against most opponents, Arlovski would have ended up in a very bad position against both guys, but neither Struve nor Tuivasa possessed the technique to make him pay. Abdurakhimov is not a strong offensive wrestler because he struggles to take opponents down, but he is a strong grappler who has a very heavy top game if you allow him to get into top position. Arlovski has excellent takedown defense, but sometimes he makes critical errors which could open the door for Abdurakhimov to find a way to get into top position.
Abdurakhimov is primarily a grappler, but at 37 years old he no longer has the athleticism or explosiveness to shoot in on his opponents and take them down with traditional wrestling techniques. Instead, he has morphed into an opportunistic grappler that looks to catch kicks and turn them into takedowns or hit well timed trips when his opponent is off balance. Andrei Arlovski has talked extensively in the build-up to his recent fights about how his new trainers at American Top Team have helped him to develop a robust gameplan going into each fight and if they prepare Arlovski not to throw kicks or stand too rigid in the clinch then I don’t see Abdurakhimov being able to take him down. We just have to hope that Arlovski works hard to keep this fight standing. The only risk here is if he loses focus and goes for a low success rate trip that could see him wind up on the bottom.
The only other concern I have about betting on Arlovski is that this is the first ever UFC event in Russia and Shamil Abdurakhimov is Russian. We don’t yet know how big of a factor home advantage is going to be in Russia, but it’s possible that it could be very big. It’s unlikely that Arlovski will be able to finish Abdurakhimov inside the distance, so if the fight goes to a decision we need to rely on the judges not screw us [again].
When you set aside our insecurities about being robbed by the judges and losing split decisions, we cannot ignore the fact that win or lose Arlovski is a great value bet at underdog odds. He’s better than Abdurakhimov almost everywhere, he’s got a World Class team behind him, and his output is much higher over 3 rounds. Arlovski should be able to fight smart, maintain a decent output and outwork Abdurakhimov in every round for a Unanimous Decision victory.
Reasons for betting on Andrei Arlovski
Risk Factors with betting on Andrei Arlovski
My Betting Tip
Andrei Arlovski to win
[1% of your bankroll]
Decimal = 2.30
Moneyline = +130
Fractional = 13/10
The bookies believe that Andrei Arlovski has a 43% chance of beating Shamil Abdurakhimov based on their current odds.
Alexei Oleinik vs Mark Hunt Betting Tip and Prediction
I want to make it clear that I don’t love Mark Hunt in this fight. If we were getting the version of Hunt from 2 – 3 years ago that fought Frank Mir and Bigfoot Silva I’d be all over him, but he’s shown flashes of things in his last few fights that I don’t like. Just a couple of years ago Mark Hunt would smoke a guy like Alexei Oleinik, but as the odds suggest this fight is much closer in 2018.
On face value, Mark Hunt is a nightmare opponent for Alexei Oleinik because he has vicious KO power and he’s very difficult to tie up. All of Oleinik’s takedowns come from trips and throws because he no longer possesses the athleticism or explosion to shoot in deep on his opponent’s hips with traditional wrestling shots. To complete these kinds of takedowns you need to be able to grab hold of your opponent and Hunt is excellent at disengaging when people try to grab hold of him.
Oleinik’s primary technique for getting fights to the ground is to Zombie forward, tie his opponent up, drive them into the cage and then try to drag them to the ground. He will even resort to pulling guard if he can’t take them down with traditional methods. That’s why I believe he’ll find it difficult to win this fight. Hunt is historically very difficult to tie up, so Oleinik won’t be able to get a takedown unless Hunt makes a big mistake. Problem is; In Hunt’s recent fights against Curtis Blaydes and Alistair Overeem he made the mistake of getting overly aggressive when he had both guys hurt. This enabled them to tie him up and either take him down or get a prolonged period of control against the cage. He cannot afford to make this same mistake against Oleinik. He needs to stay patient and pick his shots like he did against Derrick Lewis.
This should be an easy fight for Mark Hunt because Oleinik is essentially a sitting duck. He stands stationary and rigid and comes forward with his chin up high and exposed. You’ll often see Oleinik rushing forward with his head down and his arms outstretched while he desperately tries to grab hold of his opponents. In the past, Hunt would have flatlined someone with striking defense as bad as Oleinik, but in recent fights, he’s been a little gunshy. If Oleinik can close his eyes, bite down on his mouthpiece and drive Hunt into the cage, I think he can win this fight, but if Hunt can fight smart and land his trademark bombs, he should be able to KO Oleinik quickly and violently.
This is a difficult fight to call because we don’t know what version of Mark Hunt we’re going to get. If we get the version of Hunt that fought Derrick Lewis, then I think he’ll win easily. Against Lewis, he stayed calm, controlled the distance by using his striking in reverse to act as a deterrent against Lewis’ attacks and used his power and technique defensively to keep Lewis from being able to tie him up.
My concern is if Hunt fights like he did against Blaydes or Overeem. In those fights, he became over aggressive at times and rushed forward which left him vulnerable to being caught with reactive takedowns. He cannot allow this to happen against Oleinik; he needs to fight smart and stay patient.
This is another one of those fights where I can see scenarios where both guys could win, but the value is too good on Mark Hunt to pass up. Oleinik has poor cardio, poor striking defense and if Hunt fights smart Oleinik is going to find it almost impossible to get this fight to the ground. Oleinik’s striking is so bad that if it stays standing Hunt should dominate.
In the last couple of years, Hunt has become increasingly concerned with money and lawsuits and less concerned with winning fights and moving up the rankings. I hope that he takes this fight seriously and shows up to win. If Hunt fights anywhere near his full potential, he should win easily. At almost even money I think he’s a solid bet. Hunt just needs to use his striking to control the distance and not get overly aggressive if he hurts Oleinik.
Reasons for betting on Mark Hunt
Risk Factors with betting on Mark Hunt
My Betting Tip
Mark Hunt to win
[2% of your bankroll]
Decimal = 1.83
Moneyline = -120
Fractional = 83/100
The bookies believe that Mark Hunt has a 55% chance of beating Alexei Oleinik based on their current odds.